Language:English
Al-Kholood v Al-Qadsiah
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Kholood (Local)
Prediction 18.35%5.45fair odd
EV +10.08%
Edge +1.68%
Kelly +2.02%
Growth +0.203%
assuming max odds 6.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.10%18.28%18.30%19.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.405.345.436.0022.73%18.72%18.42%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Qadsiah (Visit)
Prediction 60.96%1.64fair odd
EV -7.34%
Edge -4.83%
Kelly -14.11%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.26%60.78%60.92%63.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.451.441.5271.43%68.77%69.44%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 20.69%4.83fair odd
EV -5.23%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -1.46%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.58
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.29%20.94%20.79%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.244.254.5826.32%23.58%23.53%21.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Kholood (Local): 18.35%; Al-Qadsiah (Visit): 60.96%; Draw: 20.69%. For Al-Kholood (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.45. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.08%.
Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV +10.08%E +1.68%K +2.02%G +0.203% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.11%EV -10.39%E -7.07%K -22.10%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.43%EV -10.40%E -2.40%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-05 14:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.10%EV +10.08%E +1.68%K +2.02%G +0.203% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 63.82%EV -13.43%E -9.46%K -31.99%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.08%EV -11.02%E -2.56%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-02 16:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.10%EV +10.08%E +1.68%K +2.02%G +0.203% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 63.82%EV -13.43%E -9.46%K -31.99%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.08%EV -11.02%E -2.56%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-02 16:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.10%EV +10.08%E +1.68%K +2.02%G +0.203% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 63.82%EV -13.43%E -9.46%K -31.99%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.08%EV -11.02%E -2.56%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-02 16:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.10%EV +10.08%E +1.68%K +2.02%G +0.203% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 63.82%EV -13.43%E -9.46%K -31.99%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.08%EV -11.02%E -2.56%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-02 16:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.10%EV +10.08%E +1.68%K +2.02%G +0.203% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 63.82%EV -13.43%E -9.46%K -31.99%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.08%EV -11.02%E -2.56%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-02 16:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.10%EV +10.08%E +1.68%K +2.02%G +0.203% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 63.82%EV -13.43%E -9.46%K -31.99%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.08%EV -11.02%E -2.56%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-02 16:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.85%EV +6.41%E +1.10%K +1.33%G +0.086% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.53%EV -10.39%E -7.07%K -22.10%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.63%EV -12.06%E -2.84%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-05 14:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.37%EV +6.41%E +1.10%K +1.33%G +0.086% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.66%EV -14.65%E -10.47%K -36.63%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.97%EV -12.06%E -2.84%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-02 16:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.37%EV +6.41%E +1.10%K +1.33%G +0.086% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.66%EV -14.65%E -10.47%K -36.63%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.97%EV -12.06%E -2.84%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-10-02 16:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.33%EV +6.41%E +1.10%K +1.33%G +0.086% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.50%EV -14.65%E -10.47%K -36.63%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.17%EV -13.09%E -3.12%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-10-02 16:24 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV +0.903%E +0.164%K +0.201%G +0.002% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -8.56%E -5.71%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -10.40%E -2.40%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-05 14:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV +0.903%E +0.164%K +0.201%G +0.002% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -12.22%E -8.48%K -27.76%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -13.09%E -3.12%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-10-05 14:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.43I 18.42%NM 17.19%EV -0.381%E -0.070%K -0.086%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.21%EV -8.56%E -5.71%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 4.53I 22.08%NM 20.60%EV -6.26%E -1.38%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-05 14:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.70%EV -4.60%E -0.885%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.37%EV -8.56%E -5.71%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -8.95%E -2.03%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-05 14:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.01I 19.96%NM 18.55%EV -8.09%E -1.61%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.15%EV -7.34%E -4.83%K -14.11%G +0.000% | 4.58I 21.83%NM 20.29%EV -5.23%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-05 14:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -8.56%E -5.71%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -6.88%E -1.53%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-05 15:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.28%EV -8.27%E -1.65%K -2.07%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 59.99%EV -12.22%E -8.48%K -27.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.73%EV -21.37%E -5.62%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 15.8% | 2026-10-05 14:47 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -11.94%E -2.49%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.56%E -5.71%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -17.23%E -4.31%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-10-05 14:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -11.94%E -2.49%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.56%E -5.71%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -17.23%E -4.31%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-10-05 14:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -11.94%E -2.49%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.56%E -5.71%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -17.23%E -4.31%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-10-05 14:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -11.94%E -2.49%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.56%E -5.71%K -17.12%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -17.23%E -4.31%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-10-05 14:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.26%EV -11.94%E -2.49%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.87%EV -12.22%E -8.48%K -27.76%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -13.09%E -3.12%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-10-05 15:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.11%EV -11.94%E -2.49%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 61.20%EV -13.43%E -9.46%K -31.99%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.69%EV -13.09%E -3.12%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 15.1% | 2026-10-05 15:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.99%EV -13.77%E -2.93%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 60.72%EV -10.39%E -7.07%K -22.10%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.29%EV -8.95%E -2.03%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-05 15:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.24%EV -17.44%E -3.88%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.14%EV -12.22%E -8.48%K -27.76%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 20.62%EV -13.09%E -3.12%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-10-05 14:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 19.42%EV -19.28%E -4.38%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 59.74%EV -12.83%E -8.97%K -29.83%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 20.84%EV -15.16%E -3.70%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 17.0% | 2026-10-05 15:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (2)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.11% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.87% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.02% | 5.0% | 2026-10-05 14:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.05% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 59.52% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.43% | 16.7% | 2026-10-05 15:05 |