The School of Odds
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Al-Kholood v Al-Fayha

Kickoff: 2026-04-30 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Kholood 1–1 Al-Fayha

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Kholood (Local)

Prediction 36.31%2.75fair odd
EV -5.24%
Edge -2.01%
Kelly -3.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.37%36.28%36.31%37.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.452.452.6143.48%40.85%40.82%38.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Fayha (Visit)

Prediction 35.67%2.80fair odd
EV -6.20%
Edge -2.36%
Kelly -3.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.84%35.63%35.67%36.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.542.552.6342.55%39.32%39.22%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.03%3.57fair odd
EV -3.59%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.20%28.09%28.03%28.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.233.273.4432.79%30.93%30.53%29.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Kholood (Local): 36.31%; Al-Fayha (Visit): 35.67%; Draw: 28.03%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.57. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.44, with an expected value of -3.59%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 35.97%EV -5.24%E -2.01%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.25%EV -7.63%E -2.94%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.78%EV -5.27%E -1.56%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 21:04
1xBet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.26%EV -6.33%E -2.45%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.54%EV -8.70%E -3.40%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.20%EV -3.59%E -1.04%K -1.47%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 21:40
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -9.23%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -7.27%E -2.80%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -7.51%E -2.28%K -3.26%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-23 19:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%EV -9.23%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.21%EV -7.27%E -2.80%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -8.91%E -2.74%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-23 19:50
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.52%EV -9.23%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.81%EV -9.05%E -3.55%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -7.51%E -2.28%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 19:50
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.37%EV -9.23%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.10%EV -12.62%E -5.15%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -13.11%E -4.23%K -6.24%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-23 21:49
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.37%EV -9.23%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.10%EV -12.62%E -5.15%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -13.11%E -4.23%K -6.24%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-23 21:49
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.37%EV -9.23%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.10%EV -12.62%E -5.15%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -13.11%E -4.23%K -6.24%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-23 21:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.37%EV -9.23%E -3.69%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.10%EV -12.62%E -5.15%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -13.11%E -4.23%K -6.24%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-23 21:49
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.40%EV -11.05%E -4.51%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.84%EV -6.20%E -2.36%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -7.51%E -2.28%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-23 18:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.40%EV -11.05%E -4.51%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.84%EV -6.20%E -2.36%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -7.51%E -2.28%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-23 18:04
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.40%EV -11.05%E -4.51%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.84%EV -6.20%E -2.36%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -7.51%E -2.28%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-23 18:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.40%EV -11.05%E -4.51%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.84%EV -6.20%E -2.36%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -7.51%E -2.28%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-23 18:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.40%EV -11.05%E -4.51%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.84%EV -6.20%E -2.36%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -7.51%E -2.28%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-23 18:04
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.40%EV -11.05%E -4.51%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.84%EV -6.20%E -2.36%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -7.51%E -2.28%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-23 18:05
Paddy Power🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.73%EV -11.05%E -4.51%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.00%EV -10.84%E -4.33%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.27%EV -7.51%E -2.28%K -3.26%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-23 19:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.44%EV -11.77%E -4.84%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -7.27%E -2.80%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -7.51%E -2.28%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-23 18:05
LeoVegas🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.44%EV -11.77%E -4.84%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -7.27%E -2.80%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -7.51%E -2.28%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-23 18:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.16%EV -12.86%E -5.36%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.97%EV -9.05%E -3.55%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.87%EV -10.31%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-23 19:44
Betclic (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.16%EV -12.86%E -5.36%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.97%EV -9.05%E -3.55%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.87%EV -10.31%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-23 19:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.35%EV -13.59%E -5.71%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.86%EV -9.05%E -3.55%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -10.31%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-23 18:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.35%EV -13.59%E -5.71%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.86%EV -9.05%E -3.55%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -10.31%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000%12.5%2026-04-23 18:05
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 36.51%EV -13.59%E -5.71%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.46%EV -12.62%E -5.15%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.03%EV -13.11%E -4.23%K -6.24%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-23 19:49
PMU (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.39%EV -14.68%E -6.25%K -10.87%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.15%EV -10.84%E -4.33%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.46%EV -10.31%E -3.22%K -4.69%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-23 18:04
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 36.97%EV -14.68%E -6.25%K -10.87%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.46%EV -12.62%E -5.15%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.58%EV -11.71%E -3.72%K -5.45%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-23 20:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 36.59%EV -16.49%E -7.17%K -12.69%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 35.81%EV -16.19%E -6.89%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.59%EV -14.52%E -4.76%K -7.08%G +0.000%18.8%2026-04-23 20:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.36I 42.37%NM 36.31%2.44I 40.98%NM 35.12%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%16.7%2026-04-23 19:50