The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Al-Khaleej v Al-Shabab

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Khaleej 0–0 Al-Shabab

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Khaleej (Local)

Prediction 37.35%2.68fair odd
EV -2.88%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -1.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.09%37.24%37.47%38.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.442.402.6045.45%41.05%41.67%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Shabab (Visit)

Prediction 36.76%2.72fair odd
EV -4.43%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -2.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.95%36.87%36.81%38.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.452.432.6043.48%40.77%41.15%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.89%3.86fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -0.922%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.05%25.90%25.72%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.493.483.7330.30%28.66%28.78%26.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Khaleej (Local): 37.35%; Al-Shabab (Visit): 36.76%; Draw: 25.89%. For Al-Khaleej (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.68. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.60, with an expected value of -2.88%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.73%EV -2.88%E -1.11%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.73%EV -4.43%E -1.70%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-22 13:24
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.73%EV -2.88%E -1.11%K -1.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.73%EV -4.43%E -1.70%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-22 13:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.09%EV -4.74%E -1.86%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -11.78%E -4.91%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-22 14:50
Pinnacle🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 37.66%EV -5.49%E -2.17%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.79%EV -4.80%E -1.85%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.55%EV -3.44%E -0.922%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-22 15:05
1xBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.36%EV -6.61%E -2.65%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 36.91%EV -7.00%E -2.77%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.73%EV -6.03%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-22 15:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -6.61%E -2.65%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -6.27%E -2.46%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -9.39%E -2.68%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-22 13:34
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -6.61%E -2.65%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.59%EV -9.94%E -4.06%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-22 13:34
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.50%EV -7.36%E -2.97%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.26%EV -10.68%E -4.39%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.24%EV -10.69%E -3.10%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-22 14:29
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.50%EV -7.36%E -2.97%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.26%EV -10.68%E -4.39%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.24%EV -10.69%E -3.10%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-22 14:29
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.50%EV -7.36%E -2.97%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.26%EV -10.68%E -4.39%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.24%EV -10.69%E -3.10%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-22 14:29
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.50%EV -7.36%E -2.97%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.26%EV -10.68%E -4.39%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.24%EV -10.69%E -3.10%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-22 14:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.50%EV -7.36%E -2.97%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.26%EV -10.68%E -4.39%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.24%EV -10.69%E -3.10%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-22 14:29
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.50%EV -7.36%E -2.97%K -4.97%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.26%EV -10.68%E -4.39%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.24%EV -10.69%E -3.10%K -4.36%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-22 14:29
Betclic (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.16%EV -9.23%E -3.80%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 36.08%EV -5.53%E -2.15%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.76%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-22 14:53
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -10.35%E -4.31%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.34%EV -6.27%E -2.46%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -4.22%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-22 14:48
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -10.35%E -4.31%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -8.11%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-22 14:50
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -10.35%E -4.31%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -8.11%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-22 14:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.79%EV -10.35%E -4.31%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.02%EV -9.94%E -4.06%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-22 13:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.84%EV -10.35%E -4.31%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.15%EV -12.52%E -5.26%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.01%EV -11.98%E -3.52%K -4.99%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-22 14:29
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.67%EV -10.35%E -4.31%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.67%EV -11.78%E -4.91%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -14.57%E -4.42%K -6.34%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-22 13:24
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.67%EV -10.35%E -4.31%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.67%EV -11.78%E -4.91%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -14.57%E -4.42%K -6.34%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-22 13:24
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.67%EV -10.35%E -4.31%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.67%EV -11.78%E -4.91%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -14.57%E -4.42%K -6.34%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-22 13:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.67%EV -10.35%E -4.31%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.67%EV -11.78%E -4.91%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -14.57%E -4.42%K -6.34%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-22 13:24
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.27%EV -11.10%E -4.66%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -8.11%E -3.24%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.30%EV -6.80%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-22 15:04
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.72%EV -11.10%E -4.66%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.64%EV -9.94%E -4.06%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -9.39%E -2.68%K -3.76%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-22 14:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 36.72%EV -11.10%E -4.66%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.19%EV -13.62%E -5.80%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.09%EV -13.28%E -3.96%K -5.65%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-22 14:29
Virgin Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 36.72%EV -11.10%E -4.66%K -8.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.19%EV -13.62%E -5.80%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.09%EV -13.28%E -3.96%K -5.65%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-22 14:29
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.73%EV -12.22%E -5.20%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -11.78%E -4.91%K -8.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.33%EV -9.39%E -2.68%K -3.76%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-22 13:35
PMU (FR)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 36.78%EV -12.96%E -5.56%K -9.75%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.26%EV -15.46%E -6.72%K -11.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.97%EV -14.57%E -4.42%K -6.34%G +0.000%16.7%2026-08-22 14:29
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.89%EV -17.82%E -8.10%K -14.85%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 35.95%EV -12.52%E -5.26%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.16%EV -11.98%E -3.52%K -4.99%G +0.000%16.9%2026-08-22 13:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.63I 38.02%NM 37.63%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.66%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.71%1.0%2026-08-22 14:30
Smarkets◎2.60I 38.46%NM 37.80%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.67%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.53%1.7%2026-08-22 14:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.21%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.93%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.85%1.8%2026-08-22 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.21%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.93%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.85%1.8%2026-08-22 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.21%2.66I 37.59%NM 36.93%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.85%1.8%2026-08-22 15:05