The School of Odds
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Al-Khaleej v Al-Riyadh

Kickoff: 2026-09-07 15:30 UTC

Final: Al-Khaleej 0–0 Al-Riyadh

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Khaleej (Local)

Prediction 43.27%2.31fair odd
EV -3.50%
Edge -1.57%
Kelly -2.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.14%43.53%43.17%45.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.992.132.132.2350.25%47.05%46.84%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Riyadh (Visit)

Prediction 28.33%3.53fair odd
EV +0.021%
Edge +0.006%
Kelly +0.008%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.24%28.07%28.42%30.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.113.103.5336.36%32.14%32.26%28.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.39%3.52fair odd
EV -2.90%
Edge -0.849%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.78%28.40%28.42%29.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.153.103.4233.90%31.78%32.26%29.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Khaleej (Local): 43.27%; Al-Riyadh (Visit): 28.33%; Draw: 28.39%. For Al-Riyadh (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.529. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.530, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.021%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 44.23%EV -5.23%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 27.44%EV +0.021%E +0.006%K +0.008%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.32%EV -2.90%E -0.849%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-07 15:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -13.45%E -6.73%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -0.829%E -0.237%K -0.332%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-07 15:15
Pinnacle🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.25%EV -4.80%E -2.18%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.74%EV -2.81%E -0.820%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.01%EV -6.88%E -2.10%K -3.02%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 15:20
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -4.80%E -2.18%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -3.66%E -1.08%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.81%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-07 15:05
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.23%EV -9.99%E -4.80%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -5.08%E -1.52%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-07 15:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.96%E -3.24%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.50%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-07 15:10
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -11.29%E -5.51%K -10.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -6.50%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -9.15%E -2.86%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-07 15:06
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.21%EV -11.29%E -5.51%K -10.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -6.50%E -1.97%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.32%EV -9.15%E -2.86%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-07 15:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.05%EV -6.96%E -3.24%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -7.91%E -2.43%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-07 15:05
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -11.29%E -5.51%K -10.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -9.33%E -2.92%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -11.99%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-07 15:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.36%EV -9.12%E -4.34%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.63%EV -9.90%E -3.11%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-07 15:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -9.12%E -4.34%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -10.75%E -3.41%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -7.73%E -2.38%K -3.44%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-07 15:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 43.98%EV -13.88%E -6.98%K -14.02%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.79%EV -10.75%E -3.41%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.23%EV -11.99%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-07 15:10
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.96%E -3.24%K -6.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -12.16%E -3.92%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -6.31%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-07 15:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -11.29%E -5.51%K -10.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -12.16%E -3.92%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -9.15%E -2.86%K -4.16%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-07 15:10
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.06%EV -11.29%E -5.51%K -10.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -12.16%E -3.92%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -11.99%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-07 15:10
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.65%EV -11.29%E -5.51%K -10.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.20%EV -12.16%E -3.92%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.14%EV -14.83%E -4.94%K -7.41%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-07 15:25
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.65%EV -11.29%E -5.51%K -10.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.20%EV -12.16%E -3.92%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.14%EV -14.83%E -4.94%K -7.41%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-07 15:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.65%EV -11.29%E -5.51%K -10.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.20%EV -12.16%E -3.92%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.14%EV -14.83%E -4.94%K -7.41%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-07 15:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.65%EV -11.29%E -5.51%K -10.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.20%EV -12.16%E -3.92%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.14%EV -14.83%E -4.94%K -7.41%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-07 15:25
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.19%EV -3.50%E -1.57%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.90%EV -17.83%E -6.15%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -11.99%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-07 15:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.19%EV -3.50%E -1.57%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.90%EV -17.83%E -6.15%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -11.99%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-07 15:15
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.19%EV -3.50%E -1.57%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.90%EV -17.83%E -6.15%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -11.99%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-07 15:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.19%EV -3.50%E -1.57%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.90%EV -17.83%E -6.15%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -11.99%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-07 15:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.19%EV -3.50%E -1.57%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.90%EV -17.83%E -6.15%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -11.99%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-07 15:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.19%EV -3.50%E -1.57%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.90%EV -17.83%E -6.15%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -11.99%E -3.87%K -5.71%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-07 15:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.33%EV -5.66%E -2.60%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.85%EV -19.25%E -6.75%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.82%EV -13.41%E -4.40%K -6.54%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-07 15:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 40.14%EV -6.53%E -3.02%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.96%EV -20.66%E -7.38%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.90%EV -14.83%E -4.94%K -7.41%G +0.000%15.3%2026-09-07 15:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 40.14%EV -6.53%E -3.02%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.96%EV -20.66%E -7.38%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.90%EV -14.83%E -4.94%K -7.41%G +0.000%15.3%2026-09-07 15:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 40.17%EV -8.26%E -3.89%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 30.97%EV -22.08%E -8.03%K -12.62%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.87%EV -16.25%E -5.51%K -8.33%G +0.000%17.4%2026-09-07 15:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.80%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.50%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.70%1.0%2026-09-07 15:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.02%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.39%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.58%1.4%2026-09-07 15:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.02%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.39%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.58%1.4%2026-09-07 15:26
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.14%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.45%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.41%2.0%2026-09-07 15:25
Smarkets◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.30%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.45%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.25%2.6%2026-09-07 15:25