The School of Odds
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Al-Khaleej v Al-Fayha

Kickoff: 2026-10-15 14:51 UTC

Final: Al-Khaleej 2–0 Al-Fayha

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Khaleej (Local)

Prediction 40.02%2.50fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -0.799%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.19%40.03%39.95%43.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.222.252.4550.76%45.13%44.44%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Fayha (Visit)

Prediction 31.63%3.16fair odd
EV +4.38%
Edge +1.33%
Kelly +1.90%
Growth +0.083%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.52%31.49%31.83%33.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.943.003.3037.74%33.96%33.33%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.35%3.53fair odd
EV -2.47%
Edge -0.717%
Kelly -1.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.05%28.49%28.21%30.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.163.203.4433.33%31.61%31.25%29.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Khaleej (Local): 40.02%; Al-Fayha (Visit): 31.63%; Draw: 28.35%. For Al-Fayha (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.16. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.38%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.03%EV -7.16%E -3.09%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.85%EV +4.38%E +1.33%K +1.90%G +0.083%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.12%EV -10.40%E -3.29%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 14:35
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.05%EV -15.96%E -7.60%K -14.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -0.367%E -0.117%K -0.171%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 14:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.05%EV -15.96%E -7.60%K -14.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -0.367%E -0.117%K -0.171%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 14:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.05%EV -15.96%E -7.60%K -14.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -0.367%E -0.117%K -0.171%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 14:39
Grosvenor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.05%EV -15.96%E -7.60%K -14.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -0.367%E -0.117%K -0.171%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 14:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.05%EV -15.96%E -7.60%K -14.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -0.367%E -0.117%K -0.171%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 14:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.05%EV -15.96%E -7.60%K -14.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.70%EV -0.367%E -0.117%K -0.171%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.21%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 14:40
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.06%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -1.95%E -0.629%K -0.928%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -13.52%E -4.43%K -6.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-15 14:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -11.96%E -5.44%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -1.95%E -0.629%K -0.928%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-15 14:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.13%EV -17.56%E -8.53%K -16.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -1.95%E -0.629%K -0.928%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.21%EV -10.69%E -3.39%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-15 14:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 43.13%EV -17.56%E -8.53%K -16.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -1.95%E -0.629%K -0.928%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.21%EV -10.69%E -3.39%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-15 14:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.25%EV -17.96%E -8.76%K -17.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -1.95%E -0.629%K -0.928%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.15%EV -10.69%E -3.39%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-15 14:40
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -9.96%E -4.43%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -14.94%E -4.98%K -7.47%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-15 14:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -9.96%E -4.43%K -7.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -14.94%E -4.98%K -7.47%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-15 14:40
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -11.96%E -5.44%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -14.94%E -4.98%K -7.47%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-15 14:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 43.43%EV -21.17%E -10.74%K -21.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.52%EV -5.11%E -1.70%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.05%EV -13.52%E -4.43%K -6.60%G +0.000%16.9%2026-10-15 14:40
1xBet🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.38%EV -2.36%E -0.966%K -1.64%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.68%EV -7.01%E -2.38%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.93%EV -2.47%E -0.717%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-15 14:45
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -1.96%E -0.799%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -11.44%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-15 14:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -3.96%E -1.65%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -11.44%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -3.60%E -1.06%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-15 14:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.89%EV -4.76%E -2.00%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.06%EV -11.44%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -6.43%E -1.95%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-15 14:45
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.99%EV -13.96%E -6.49%K -12.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -11.44%E -4.08%K -6.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.54%EV -9.27%E -2.90%K -4.21%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-15 14:45
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.49%EV -4.76%E -2.00%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -13.02%E -4.73%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -7.85%E -2.42%K -3.49%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-15 14:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.39%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -14.60%E -5.41%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.05%EV -5.02%E -1.50%K -2.14%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-15 14:45
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.19%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.53%EV -14.60%E -5.41%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.28%EV -14.94%E -4.98%K -7.47%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-15 14:45
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.19%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.53%EV -14.60%E -5.41%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.28%EV -14.94%E -4.98%K -7.47%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-15 14:39
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.19%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.53%EV -14.60%E -5.41%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.28%EV -14.94%E -4.98%K -7.47%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-15 14:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.19%EV -7.96%E -3.46%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.53%EV -14.60%E -5.41%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.28%EV -14.94%E -4.98%K -7.47%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-15 14:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.35%EV -9.96%E -4.43%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.41%EV -16.18%E -6.11%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -7.85%E -2.42%K -3.49%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-15 14:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 40.89%EV -17.96%E -8.76%K -17.11%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 31.63%EV -16.18%E -6.11%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.48%EV -13.52%E -4.43%K -6.60%G +0.000%19.3%2026-10-15 14:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.13%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.16%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.71%0.5%2026-10-15 14:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 40.13%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.16%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.71%0.5%2026-10-15 14:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.02%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.02%0.9%2026-10-15 14:45
Kalshi◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.61%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.66%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.74%1.0%2026-10-15 14:45
Smarkets◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.39%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.01%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.60%2.4%2026-10-15 14:45