The School of Odds
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Al-Ittihad v Diriyah Club

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 15:30 UTC

Final: Al-Ittihad 2–0 Diriyah Club

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Ittihad (Local)

Prediction 57.44%1.74fair odd
EV -4.08%
Edge -2.45%
Kelly -6.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.61%57.44%57.48%58.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.461.611.621.6768.49%62.18%61.92%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Diriyah Club (Visit)

Prediction 20.94%4.78fair odd
EV -1.60%
Edge -0.340%
Kelly -0.432%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.41%20.82%20.93%23.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.214.104.7026.67%23.77%24.39%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.63%4.62fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -0.545%
Kelly -0.700%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.23%21.74%21.60%23.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.053.954.5127.03%24.72%25.32%22.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Ittihad (Local): 57.44%; Diriyah Club (Visit): 20.94%; Draw: 21.63%. For Diriyah Club (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.78. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.70, with an expected value of -1.60%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.65%EV -4.08%E -2.45%K -6.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.50%EV -7.88%E -1.79%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.85%EV -6.35%E -1.47%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-23 15:06
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.65%EV -4.08%E -2.45%K -6.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.50%EV -7.88%E -1.79%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.85%EV -6.35%E -1.47%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-23 15:06
Unibet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.63%EV -4.66%E -2.81%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -14.16%E -3.45%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.25%EV -15.65%E -4.01%K -5.40%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-23 15:22
Unibet (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.63%EV -4.66%E -2.81%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -14.16%E -3.45%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.25%EV -15.65%E -4.01%K -5.40%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-23 15:21
Grosvenor🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.63%EV -4.66%E -2.81%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -14.16%E -3.45%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.25%EV -15.65%E -4.01%K -5.40%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-23 15:21
Unibet (NL)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.63%EV -4.66%E -2.81%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -14.16%E -3.45%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.25%EV -15.65%E -4.01%K -5.40%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-23 15:21
ATG (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.63%EV -4.66%E -2.81%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -14.16%E -3.45%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.25%EV -15.65%E -4.01%K -5.40%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-23 15:22
Svenska Spel🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.63%EV -4.66%E -2.81%K -7.06%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.12%EV -14.16%E -3.45%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.25%EV -15.65%E -4.01%K -5.40%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-23 15:22
1xBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.19%EV -5.23%E -3.17%K -8.05%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.52%EV -2.02%E -0.431%K -0.548%G +0.000%4.51I 22.17%NM 21.29%EV -2.46%E -0.545%K -0.700%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-23 15:29
Pinnacle🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.86%EV -5.81%E -3.54%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.57I 21.88%NM 20.76%EV -4.32%E -0.945%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.37%EV -3.97%E -0.894%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-23 15:18
LiveScore Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.62%EV -6.38%E -3.91%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.26%EV -16.25%E -4.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.12%EV -16.73%E -4.35%K -5.87%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-23 15:22
Virgin Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.62%EV -6.38%E -3.91%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.26%EV -16.25%E -4.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.12%EV -16.73%E -4.35%K -5.87%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-23 15:22
Unibet (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.43%EV -6.96%E -4.29%K -11.22%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -5.78%E -1.29%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -8.08%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-23 15:18
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.93%EV -6.96%E -4.29%K -11.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.25%EV -16.25%E -4.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.82%EV -15.65%E -4.01%K -5.40%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-23 15:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.61%EV -6.96%E -4.29%K -11.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.12%EV -16.25%E -4.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.28%EV -17.81%E -4.69%K -6.36%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-23 15:22
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.09%EV -7.53%E -4.68%K -12.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.17%EV -16.25%E -4.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.74%EV -15.65%E -4.01%K -5.40%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-23 15:21
SportsBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.74%EV -8.10%E -5.06%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -5.78%E -1.29%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.74%EV -8.08%E -1.90%K -2.49%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-23 15:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.04%EV -8.10%E -5.06%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -12.07%E -2.87%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.23%EV -7.00%E -1.63%K -2.12%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-23 15:18
betfred_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.96%EV -8.10%E -5.06%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -5.78%E -1.29%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -13.49%E -3.37%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-23 15:29
Sky Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.56%EV -8.10%E -5.06%K -13.51%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -16.25%E -4.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -13.49%E -3.37%K -4.50%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-23 15:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 56.77%EV -9.25%E -5.86%K -15.95%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.88%EV -14.16%E -3.45%K -4.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -9.16%E -2.18%K -2.86%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-23 15:18
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.78%EV -9.83%E -6.26%K -17.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.62%EV -7.88%E -1.79%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.60%EV -9.16%E -2.18%K -2.86%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-23 15:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.78%EV -9.83%E -6.26%K -17.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.62%EV -7.88%E -1.79%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.60%EV -9.16%E -2.18%K -2.86%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-23 15:25
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.29%EV -9.83%E -6.26%K -17.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.04%EV -12.07%E -2.87%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.66%EV -15.65%E -4.01%K -5.40%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-23 15:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.29%EV -9.83%E -6.26%K -17.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.04%EV -12.07%E -2.87%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.66%EV -15.65%E -4.01%K -5.40%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-23 15:29
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 55.21%EV -9.83%E -6.26%K -17.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.12%EV -21.49%E -5.73%K -7.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.67%EV -13.49%E -3.37%K -4.50%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-23 15:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 54.90%EV -10.40%E -6.67%K -18.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.96%EV -18.35%E -4.70%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.15%EV -19.98%E -5.40%K -7.40%G +0.000%16.8%2026-10-23 15:22
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.86%EV -10.98%E -7.08%K -19.96%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.41%EV -1.60%E -0.340%K -0.432%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.72%EV -9.16%E -2.18%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-23 15:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.41%EV -12.12%E -7.92%K -22.88%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.17%EV -13.11%E -3.16%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.42%EV -11.32%E -2.76%K -3.65%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-23 15:28
Unibet (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 57.48%EV -16.14%E -11.06%K -35.10%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 20.72%EV -15.21%E -3.75%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 21.80%EV -16.73%E -4.35%K -5.87%G +0.000%19.2%2026-10-23 15:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.26%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.21%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%1.0%2026-10-23 15:26
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.26%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.21%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%1.0%2026-10-23 15:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 58.26%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.21%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.53%1.0%2026-10-23 15:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.07%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.61%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.32%2.0%2026-10-23 15:29
Kalshi◎1.64I 60.98%NM 59.79%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.61%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.60%2.0%2026-10-23 15:22