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Al-Ittihad v Al-Shabab

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Ittihad (Local)

Prediction 51.53%1.94fair odd
EV -6.72%
Edge -3.71%
Kelly -8.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.09%51.93%51.58%57.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.751.761.8166.67%57.12%56.82%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Shabab (Visit)

Prediction 25.37%3.94fair odd
EV +1.48%
Edge +0.370%
Kelly +0.493%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.65%25.14%25.33%26.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.513.504.0031.25%28.48%28.57%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.10%4.33fair odd
EV -0.688%
Edge -0.160%
Kelly -0.208%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.62%22.93%23.10%23.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.923.954.3027.40%25.50%25.32%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Ittihad (Local): 51.53%; Al-Shabab (Visit): 25.37%; Draw: 23.10%. For Al-Shabab (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.94. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.48%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.73%EV -22.70%E -15.13%K -45.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.65%EV +1.48%E +0.370%K +0.493%G +0.007%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.62%EV -3.00%E -0.714%K -0.937%G +0.000%15.5%2026-10-14 15:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.05%EV -13.94%E -8.35%K -20.80%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -1.06%E -0.271%K -0.365%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -0.688%E -0.160%K -0.208%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-12 16:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.10%EV -9.81%E -5.61%K -13.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -4.86%E -1.30%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.12%EV -3.00%E -0.714%K -0.937%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-13 19:09
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.64%EV -7.24%E -4.02%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -6.13%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.24%EV -7.62%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-13 19:00
1xBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.70%EV -6.72%E -3.71%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.43%EV -6.64%E -1.80%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 22.88%EV -5.54%E -1.35%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-13 19:15
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.67%EV -6.72%E -3.71%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.62%EV -7.40%E -2.03%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 22.70%EV -4.85%E -1.18%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-13 19:00
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.28%EV -7.24%E -4.02%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -8.67%E -2.41%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -7.62%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-13 19:09
SportsBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.13%EV -9.30%E -5.28%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -8.67%E -2.41%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%EV -5.31%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-13 19:09
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -9.81%E -5.61%K -13.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -8.67%E -2.41%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -7.62%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-13 19:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.47%EV -9.30%E -5.28%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -11.21%E -3.20%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -7.62%E -1.90%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-13 18:54
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.60%EV -10.85%E -6.27%K -14.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.51%EV -11.21%E -3.20%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.89%EV -9.93%E -2.55%K -3.42%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-13 19:39
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.68%EV -9.81%E -5.61%K -13.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.34%EV -11.21%E -3.20%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -14.55%E -3.93%K -5.39%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-13 18:54
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.68%EV -9.81%E -5.61%K -13.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.34%EV -11.21%E -3.20%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -14.55%E -3.93%K -5.39%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-13 18:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.68%EV -9.81%E -5.61%K -13.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.34%EV -11.21%E -3.20%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -14.55%E -3.93%K -5.39%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-13 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.68%EV -9.81%E -5.61%K -13.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.34%EV -11.21%E -3.20%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -14.55%E -3.93%K -5.39%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-13 18:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 51.35%EV -11.88%E -6.94%K -16.73%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.23%EV -11.71%E -3.37%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.42%EV -13.39%E -3.57%K -4.87%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-13 18:58
Unibet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.24%EV -6.72%E -3.71%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -13.74%E -4.04%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.02%EV -8.77%E -2.22%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-16 16:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.24%EV -6.72%E -3.71%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -13.74%E -4.04%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.02%EV -8.77%E -2.22%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-16 16:05
Grosvenor🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.24%EV -6.72%E -3.71%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -13.74%E -4.04%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.02%EV -8.77%E -2.22%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-16 16:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.24%EV -6.72%E -3.71%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -13.74%E -4.04%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.02%EV -8.77%E -2.22%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-16 16:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.24%EV -6.72%E -3.71%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -13.74%E -4.04%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.02%EV -8.77%E -2.22%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-16 16:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.24%EV -6.72%E -3.71%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -13.74%E -4.04%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.02%EV -8.77%E -2.22%K -2.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-16 16:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 52.23%EV -17.03%E -10.58%K -27.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.73%EV -13.74%E -4.04%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.04%EV -15.70%E -4.30%K -5.92%G +0.000%18.9%2026-10-13 18:59
Virgin Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.30%EV -8.78%E -4.96%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.58%EV -15.01%E -4.48%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.12%EV -11.08%E -2.88%K -3.89%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-13 01:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.30%EV -8.78%E -4.96%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.58%EV -15.01%E -4.48%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.12%EV -11.08%E -2.88%K -3.89%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-13 01:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.16%EV -12.39%E -7.29%K -17.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.96%EV -15.01%E -4.48%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.89%EV -12.24%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-13 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.09%EV -9.30%E -5.28%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.71%EV -16.28%E -4.93%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.20%EV -12.24%E -3.22%K -4.37%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-13 01:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.23%EV -12.39%E -7.29%K -17.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.69%EV -18.82%E -5.88%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.08%EV -14.55%E -3.93%K -5.39%G +0.000%17.1%2026-10-13 01:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 51.94%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.97%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.09%4.1%2026-10-13 21:04
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61%5.1%2026-10-14 14:04
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61%5.1%2026-10-14 14:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.61%5.1%2026-10-14 14:05
Smarkets◎1.70I 58.82%NM 51.54%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.40%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.06%14.1%2026-10-13 18:55