The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Al-Hilal v Neom

Kickoff: 2026-09-07 18:01 UTC

Final: Al-Hilal 0–2 Neom

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Hilal (Local)

Prediction 77.43%1.29fair odd
EV -7.08%
Edge -5.90%
Kelly -35.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.94%77.62%76.99%81.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.161.171.2090.09%86.11%85.47%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Neom (Visit)

Prediction 6.94%14.40fair odd
EV +45.51%
Edge +2.17%
Kelly +2.28%
Growth +1.04%

assuming max odds 20.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.50%6.87%7.34%8.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0013.3513.0020.9610.00%7.49%7.69%4.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.63%6.40fair odd
EV +30.32%
Edge +3.64%
Kelly +4.13%
Growth +1.25%

assuming max odds 8.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.59%15.51%15.67%16.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.406.086.008.3418.52%16.45%16.67%11.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Hilal (Local): 77.43%; Neom (Visit): 6.94%; Draw: 15.63%. For Neom (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 14.40. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 20.96, corresponding to a positive expected value of +45.51%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 81.25%EV -7.86%E -6.60%K -41.35%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 7.16%EV -6.28%E -0.465%K -0.502%G +0.000%8.34I 11.99%NM 11.59%EV +30.32%E +3.64%K +4.13%G +1.25%3.4%2026-09-07 17:55
Coral🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.13%EV -7.08%E -5.90%K -35.41%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.30%EV -9.75%E -0.750%K -0.812%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV +9.39%E +1.34%K +1.56%G +0.147%5.3%2026-09-07 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.65%EV -7.08%E -5.90%K -35.41%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.87%EV -16.69%E -1.39%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +9.39%E +1.34%K +1.56%G +0.147%6.0%2026-09-07 17:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.21%EV -12.50%E -11.06%K -96.18%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.10%EV +24.96%E +1.39%K +1.47%G +0.367%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.70%EV +4.70%E +0.701%K +0.824%G +0.039%9.0%2026-09-07 18:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 77.99%EV -7.86%E -6.60%K -41.35%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.73%EV -16.69%E -1.39%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.28%EV +1.57%E +0.242%K +0.286%G +0.004%7.8%2026-09-07 17:55
betfred_uk🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.74%EV -9.41%E -8.04%K -55.33%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -9.75%E -0.750%K -0.812%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV +1.57%E +0.242%K +0.286%G +0.004%8.5%2026-09-07 17:50
SportsBet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.18%EV -12.50%E -11.06%K -96.18%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.33%EV +18.02%E +1.06%K +1.13%G +0.203%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.50%EV -2.33%E -0.374%K -0.445%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-07 18:00
Unibet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.82%EV -9.41%E -8.04%K -55.33%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.00%EV -9.75%E -0.750%K -0.812%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -6.24%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-07 17:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.82%EV -9.41%E -8.04%K -55.33%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.00%EV -9.75%E -0.750%K -0.812%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -6.24%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-07 17:35
Grosvenor🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.82%EV -9.41%E -8.04%K -55.33%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.00%EV -9.75%E -0.750%K -0.812%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -6.24%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-07 17:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.82%EV -9.41%E -8.04%K -55.33%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.00%EV -9.75%E -0.750%K -0.812%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -6.24%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-07 17:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.82%EV -9.41%E -8.04%K -55.33%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.00%EV -9.75%E -0.750%K -0.812%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -6.24%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-07 17:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.82%EV -9.41%E -8.04%K -55.33%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.00%EV -9.75%E -0.750%K -0.812%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -6.24%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-07 17:35
BoyleSports🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.06%EV -8.63%E -7.31%K -47.95%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.98%EV -30.58%E -3.06%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.96%EV -6.24%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-07 18:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.58%EV -13.28%E -11.85%K -110.64%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.57%EV +11.08%E +0.692%K +0.739%G +0.082%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.85%EV -6.24%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-07 18:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 78.05%EV -11.73%E -10.29%K -83.78%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.12%EV -13.22%E -1.06%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -6.24%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-07 17:35
Paddy Power🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 79.72%EV -14.05%E -12.66%K -127.74%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.53%EV +11.08%E +0.692%K +0.739%G +0.082%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.75%EV -6.24%E -1.04%K -1.25%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-07 18:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 77.11%EV -11.73%E -10.29%K -83.78%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 7.99%EV -23.63%E -2.15%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.90%EV -7.80%E -1.32%K -1.59%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-07 17:55
William Hill🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.82%EV -8.63%E -7.31%K -47.95%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.55%EV -16.69%E -1.39%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.63%EV -9.37%E -1.61%K -1.95%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-07 18:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 77.81%EV -12.50%E -11.06%K -96.18%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.03%EV -13.22%E -1.06%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.16%EV -9.37%E -1.61%K -1.95%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-07 17:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 77.81%EV -12.50%E -11.06%K -96.18%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.03%EV -13.22%E -1.06%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.16%EV -9.37%E -1.61%K -1.95%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-07 17:35
888sport🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.31%EV -9.41%E -8.04%K -55.33%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.96%EV -9.75%E -0.750%K -0.812%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.73%EV -10.15%E -1.76%K -2.14%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-07 17:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.31%EV -9.41%E -8.04%K -55.33%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.96%EV -9.75%E -0.750%K -0.812%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.73%EV -10.15%E -1.76%K -2.14%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-07 17:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.31%EV -9.41%E -8.04%K -55.33%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.96%EV -9.75%E -0.750%K -0.812%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.73%EV -10.15%E -1.76%K -2.14%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-07 17:59
Sky Bet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 77.92%EV -12.50%E -11.06%K -96.18%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.77%EV -9.75%E -0.750%K -0.812%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.31%EV -10.15%E -1.76%K -2.14%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-07 18:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 77.79%EV -14.05%E -12.66%K -127.74%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.20%EV -16.69%E -1.39%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.02%EV -10.15%E -1.76%K -2.14%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-07 17:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 76.69%EV -7.86%E -6.60%K -41.35%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.30%EV -13.22%E -1.06%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.01%EV -10.93%E -1.92%K -2.33%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-07 17:55
Pinnacle🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.60%EV -7.08%E -5.90%K -35.41%G +0.000%20.96I 4.77%NM 4.50%EV +45.51%E +2.17%K +2.28%G +1.04%5.58I 17.92%NM 16.90%EV -12.80%E -2.29%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-07 17:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 75.94%EV -8.63%E -7.31%K -47.95%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.47%EV -16.69%E -1.39%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.59%EV -15.62%E -2.89%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-07 17:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 76.25%EV -10.18%E -8.78%K -63.63%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.37%EV -16.69%E -1.39%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.38%EV -15.62%E -2.89%K -3.55%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-07 17:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.20I 83.33%NM 82.88%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.68%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.44%0.6%2026-09-07 18:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.20I 83.33%NM 82.88%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.68%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.44%0.6%2026-09-07 18:00
Kalshi◎1.19I 84.03%NM 83.17%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.96%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.87%1.0%2026-09-07 18:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.20I 83.33%NM 82.45%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.74%1.1%2026-09-07 18:00
Smarkets◎1.20I 83.33%NM 82.45%25.97I 3.85%NM 3.81%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.74%1.1%2026-09-07 18:00