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Al-Hilal v Al-Ittihad
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Hilal (Local)
Prediction 71.81%1.39fair odd
EV -3.78%
Edge -2.82%
Kelly -11.11%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.00%71.83%71.71%74.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.251.251.3484.03%79.71%80.00%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Al-Ittihad (Visit)
Prediction 11.97%8.35fair odd
EV +7.72%
Edge +0.858%
Kelly +0.965%
Growth +0.075%
assuming max odds 9.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.22%11.89%12.14%12.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.607.888.009.0015.15%12.68%12.50%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 16.22%6.16fair odd
EV -2.66%
Edge -0.443%
Kelly -0.531%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 6.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.31%16.28%16.15%17.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.565.506.0020.00%17.99%18.18%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Hilal (Local): 71.81%; Al-Ittihad (Visit): 11.97%; Draw: 16.22%. For Al-Ittihad (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.35. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.72%.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.19%EV -10.96%E -8.84%K -45.67%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.22%EV +7.72%E +0.858%K +0.965%G +0.075% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.59%EV -4.28%E -0.725%K -0.873%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-10 17:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.17%EV -6.65%E -5.12%K -22.17%G +0.000% | 8.77I 11.40%NM 10.85%EV +4.97%E +0.567%K +0.640%G +0.032% | 5.95I 16.81%NM 15.99%EV -3.47%E -0.583%K -0.700%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-10 17:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.78%EV -10.24%E -8.19%K -40.97%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.85%EV +1.74%E +0.204%K +0.232%G +0.004% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -2.66%E -0.443%K -0.531%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-10 17:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.24%EV -12.40%E -10.16%K -56.34%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV +1.74%E +0.204%K +0.232%G +0.004% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -10.77%E -1.96%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-10 17:05 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 73.24%EV -12.40%E -10.16%K -56.34%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.51%EV +1.74%E +0.204%K +0.232%G +0.004% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -10.77%E -1.96%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-10 17:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.49%EV -10.24%E -8.19%K -40.97%G +0.000% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.20%EV -1.85%E -0.226%K -0.257%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.31%EV -2.66%E -0.443%K -0.531%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-10 17:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -6.65%E -5.12%K -22.17%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -4.25%E -0.531%K -0.607%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -2.66%E -0.443%K -0.531%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-10 17:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -6.65%E -5.12%K -22.17%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -4.25%E -0.531%K -0.607%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -2.66%E -0.443%K -0.531%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-10 17:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.12%EV -9.52%E -7.56%K -36.63%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -4.25%E -0.531%K -0.607%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.52%EV -10.77%E -1.96%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-10 17:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.12%EV -9.52%E -7.56%K -36.63%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -4.25%E -0.531%K -0.607%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.52%EV -10.77%E -1.96%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-10 17:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.12%EV -9.52%E -7.56%K -36.63%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -4.25%E -0.531%K -0.607%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.52%EV -10.77%E -1.96%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-10 17:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.12%EV -9.52%E -7.56%K -36.63%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -4.25%E -0.531%K -0.607%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.52%EV -10.77%E -1.96%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-10 17:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.12%EV -9.52%E -7.56%K -36.63%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -4.25%E -0.531%K -0.607%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.52%EV -10.77%E -1.96%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-10 17:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.12%EV -9.52%E -7.56%K -36.63%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -4.25%E -0.531%K -0.607%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.52%EV -10.77%E -1.96%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-10-10 17:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 72.22%EV -10.96%E -8.84%K -45.67%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.19%EV -4.25%E -0.531%K -0.607%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.58%EV -12.39%E -2.29%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-10 17:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 72.22%EV -10.96%E -8.84%K -45.67%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.19%EV -4.25%E -0.531%K -0.607%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.58%EV -12.39%E -2.29%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-10 17:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 72.38%EV -11.68%E -9.49%K -50.77%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.13%EV -4.25%E -0.531%K -0.607%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.49%EV -12.39%E -2.29%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-10-10 17:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.76%EV -12.40%E -10.16%K -56.34%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.10%EV -4.25%E -0.531%K -0.607%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -10.77%E -1.96%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-10-10 17:16 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.53%EV -3.78%E -2.82%K -11.11%G +0.000% | 7.81I 12.80%NM 12.27%EV -6.52%E -0.835%K -0.958%G +0.000% | 5.92I 16.89%NM 16.19%EV -3.95%E -0.668%K -0.804%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-10-10 17:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.07%EV -9.52%E -7.56%K -36.63%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.72%EV -7.24%E -0.934%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.22%EV -9.15%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-10 18:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.46%EV -6.65%E -5.12%K -22.17%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.39%EV -10.23%E -1.36%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.16%EV -6.71%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-10 17:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -10.24%E -8.19%K -40.97%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -10.23%E -1.36%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -10.77%E -1.96%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -10.24%E -8.19%K -40.97%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -10.23%E -1.36%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -10.77%E -1.96%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -10.24%E -8.19%K -40.97%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -10.23%E -1.36%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -10.77%E -1.96%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-10 14:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -10.24%E -8.19%K -40.97%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -10.23%E -1.36%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -18.88%E -3.78%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-10-10 18:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.78%EV -10.24%E -8.19%K -40.97%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.20%EV -13.22%E -1.82%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.01%EV -15.63%E -3.01%K -3.72%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-10-10 18:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.14%EV -12.40%E -10.16%K -56.34%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.14%EV -13.22%E -1.82%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 15.72%EV -9.15%E -1.63%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-10-10 17:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.00%EV -10.24%E -8.19%K -40.97%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.50%EV -16.22%E -2.32%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.50%EV -18.88%E -3.78%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-10-10 17:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 70.74%EV -14.55%E -12.23%K -76.58%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 12.75%EV -21.00%E -3.18%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 16.51%EV -17.26%E -3.38%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 18.8% | 2026-10-10 17:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.62% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.96% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.41% | 1.4% | 2026-10-10 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.34I 74.63%NM 73.62% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.96% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.41% | 1.4% | 2026-10-10 17:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 74.45% | 9.09I 11.00%NM 10.81% | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.73% | 1.8% | 2026-10-10 17:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.77% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.90% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.33% | 1.9% | 2026-10-10 17:35 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.19% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.23% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.58% | 3.5% | 2026-10-10 17:45 |