The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Al-Hilal v Al-Hazem

Kickoff: 2026-10-19 18:01 UTC

Final: Al-Hilal 1–0 Al-Hazem

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Hilal (Local)

Prediction 87.83%1.14fair odd
EV -5.15%
Edge -4.77%
Kelly -64.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.63%87.88%87.29%90.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.051.041.0899.01%95.55%96.15%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Hazem (Visit)

Prediction 4.13%24.19fair odd
EV +24.03%
Edge +0.801%
Kelly +0.829%
Growth +0.199%

assuming max odds 30.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.13%4.19%4.37%6.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
14.0022.0221.0030.007.14%4.54%4.76%3.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 8.04%12.44fair odd
EV +20.57%
Edge +1.37%
Kelly +1.47%
Growth +0.302%

assuming max odds 15.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.08%7.94%8.34%12.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.8012.0412.0015.0014.71%8.30%8.33%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Hilal (Local): 87.83%; Al-Hazem (Visit): 4.13%; Draw: 8.04%. For Al-Hazem (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 24.19. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 30.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +24.03%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coral🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 89.01%EV -5.15%E -4.77%K -64.33%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.58%EV -13.18%E -0.628%K -0.659%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.41%EV +20.57%E +1.37%K +1.47%G +0.302%4.0%2026-10-19 17:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.59%EV -5.15%E -4.77%K -64.33%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.04%EV -21.45%E -1.13%K -1.19%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.38%EV +20.57%E +1.37%K +1.47%G +0.302%4.5%2026-10-19 17:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 90.27%EV -11.29%E -11.18%K -1129.44%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.65%EV +3.36%E +0.134%K +0.140%G +0.005%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.08%EV +20.57%E +1.37%K +1.47%G +0.302%9.7%2026-10-19 17:35
Pinnacle🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.78%EV -6.02%E -5.63%K -86.07%G +0.000%20.52I 4.87%NM 4.63%EV -15.16%E -0.739%K -0.777%G +0.000%14.41I 6.94%NM 6.59%EV +15.83%E +1.10%K +1.18%G +0.187%5.3%2026-10-19 17:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.18%EV -8.66%E -8.33%K -216.49%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.13%EV +24.03%E +0.801%K +0.829%G +0.199%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.70%EV +12.54%E +0.895%K +0.964%G +0.121%6.6%2026-10-19 18:00
1xBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 89.04%EV -5.15%E -4.77%K -64.33%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.56%EV +11.63%E +0.431%K +0.447%G +0.052%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.40%EV +4.50%E +0.346%K +0.375%G +0.017%4.0%2026-10-19 17:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.62%EV -7.78%E -7.41%K -155.63%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.14%EV +24.03%E +0.801%K +0.829%G +0.199%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.24%EV +4.50%E +0.346%K +0.375%G +0.017%6.3%2026-10-19 18:01
SportsBet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.87%EV -8.66%E -8.33%K -216.49%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.02%EV -4.91%E -0.213%K -0.223%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.11%EV +4.50%E +0.346%K +0.375%G +0.017%8.2%2026-10-19 17:40
Paddy Power🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.53%EV -8.66%E -8.33%K -216.49%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.38%EV -13.18%E -0.628%K -0.659%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.08%EV +4.50%E +0.346%K +0.375%G +0.017%8.6%2026-10-19 17:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.53%EV -8.66%E -8.33%K -216.49%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.38%EV -13.18%E -0.628%K -0.659%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.08%EV +4.50%E +0.346%K +0.375%G +0.017%8.6%2026-10-19 17:45
Unibet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.25%EV -7.78%E -7.41%K -155.63%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.03%EV -4.91%E -0.213%K -0.223%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.72%EV -3.54%E -0.295%K -0.322%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-19 17:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.35%EV -8.66%E -8.33%K -216.49%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.99%EV -4.91%E -0.213%K -0.223%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV -3.54%E -0.295%K -0.322%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-19 18:00
Grosvenor🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.35%EV -8.66%E -8.33%K -216.49%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.99%EV -4.91%E -0.213%K -0.223%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV -3.54%E -0.295%K -0.322%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-19 18:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.35%EV -8.66%E -8.33%K -216.49%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.99%EV -4.91%E -0.213%K -0.223%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV -3.54%E -0.295%K -0.322%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-19 18:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.35%EV -8.66%E -8.33%K -216.49%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.99%EV -4.91%E -0.213%K -0.223%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV -3.54%E -0.295%K -0.322%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-19 18:01
Svenska Spel🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.35%EV -8.66%E -8.33%K -216.49%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.99%EV -4.91%E -0.213%K -0.223%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV -3.54%E -0.295%K -0.322%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-19 18:00
Sky Bet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 87.72%EV -9.54%E -9.26%K -317.93%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.76%EV -21.45%E -1.13%K -1.19%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV -3.54%E -0.295%K -0.322%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-19 17:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 88.22%EV -10.42%E -10.21%K -520.81%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.28%EV -13.18%E -0.628%K -0.659%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.50%EV -3.54%E -0.295%K -0.322%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-19 18:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 88.22%EV -10.42%E -10.21%K -520.81%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.28%EV -13.18%E -0.628%K -0.659%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.50%EV -3.54%E -0.295%K -0.322%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-19 18:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 88.22%EV -10.42%E -10.21%K -520.81%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.28%EV -13.18%E -0.628%K -0.659%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.50%EV -3.54%E -0.295%K -0.322%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-19 18:00
888sport🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.20%EV -6.90%E -6.51%K -115.05%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40%EV -13.18%E -0.628%K -0.659%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.40%EV -11.58%E -1.05%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-19 17:55
William Hill🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.20%EV -6.90%E -6.51%K -115.05%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40%EV -13.18%E -0.628%K -0.659%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.40%EV -11.58%E -1.05%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-19 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.20%EV -6.90%E -6.51%K -115.05%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40%EV -13.18%E -0.628%K -0.659%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.40%EV -11.58%E -1.05%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-19 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.20%EV -6.90%E -6.51%K -115.05%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.40%EV -13.18%E -0.628%K -0.659%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.40%EV -11.58%E -1.05%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-19 17:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.91%EV -6.90%E -6.51%K -115.05%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.21%EV +19.90%E +0.686%K +0.711%G +0.141%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.87%EV -15.60%E -1.49%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-19 17:50
betfred_uk🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.07%EV -6.90%E -6.51%K -115.05%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.80%EV -21.45%E -1.13%K -1.19%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -19.62%E -1.96%K -2.18%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-19 17:55
BoyleSports🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.07%EV -6.90%E -6.51%K -115.05%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.80%EV -21.45%E -1.13%K -1.19%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -19.62%E -1.96%K -2.18%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-19 17:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 85.27%EV -9.54%E -9.26%K -317.93%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.49%EV -33.85%E -2.12%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.24%EV -23.64%E -2.49%K -2.78%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-19 18:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 81.63%EV -9.54%E -9.26%K -317.93%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.01%EV -42.12%E -3.01%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 12.36%EV -45.34%E -6.67%K -7.82%G +0.000%18.9%2026-10-19 17:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.08I 92.59%NM 92.05%33.33I 3.00%NM 2.98%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.97%0.6%2026-10-19 17:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 91.06%32.00I 3.13%NM 3.10%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.84%0.8%2026-10-19 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 90.70%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.23%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.07%3.0%2026-10-19 18:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 90.70%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.23%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.07%3.0%2026-10-19 18:01
Smarkets◎1.05I 95.24%NM 91.18%30.03I 3.33%NM 3.19%17.01I 5.88%NM 5.63%4.4%2026-10-19 18:01