The School of Odds
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Al-Hilal v Al-Fateh

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Hilal 2–0 Al-Fateh

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Hilal (Local)

Prediction 83.68%1.20fair odd
EV -4.61%
Edge -4.04%
Kelly -32.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.64%83.68%83.95%86.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.081.081.1498.04%92.24%92.59%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Fateh (Visit)

Prediction 6.37%15.71fair odd
EV +14.60%
Edge +0.811%
Kelly +0.859%
Growth +0.125%

assuming max odds 18.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.06%6.43%6.18%8.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0014.8315.0018.0010.00%6.74%6.67%5.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.96%10.04fair odd
EV +9.54%
Edge +0.867%
Kelly +0.954%
Growth +0.091%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.27%9.89%9.86%13.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.409.419.5011.0015.63%10.63%10.53%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Hilal (Local): 83.68%; Al-Fateh (Visit): 6.37%; Draw: 9.96%. For Al-Fateh (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.71. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 18.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.60%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 86.67%EV -12.14%E -11.56%K -242.82%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.06%EV +14.60%E +0.811%K +0.859%G +0.125%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.27%EV +9.54%E +0.867%K +0.954%G +0.091%9.9%2026-10-31 17:00
1xBet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 84.37%EV -4.61%E -4.04%K -32.93%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.66%EV +8.23%E +0.484%K +0.515%G +0.042%9.64I 10.37%NM 9.98%EV -4.00%E -0.415%K -0.464%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-31 17:35
Unibet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.66%EV -9.63%E -8.92%K -120.38%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.71%EV +1.87%E +0.117%K +0.125%G +0.002%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.62%EV -5.40%E -0.568%K -0.635%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-31 17:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.66%EV -9.63%E -8.92%K -120.38%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.71%EV +1.87%E +0.117%K +0.125%G +0.002%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.62%EV -5.40%E -0.568%K -0.635%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-31 17:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.66%EV -9.63%E -8.92%K -120.38%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.71%EV +1.87%E +0.117%K +0.125%G +0.002%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.62%EV -5.40%E -0.568%K -0.635%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-31 17:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.66%EV -9.63%E -8.92%K -120.38%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.71%EV +1.87%E +0.117%K +0.125%G +0.002%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.62%EV -5.40%E -0.568%K -0.635%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-31 17:30
Grosvenor🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.66%EV -9.63%E -8.92%K -120.38%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.71%EV +1.87%E +0.117%K +0.125%G +0.002%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.62%EV -5.40%E -0.568%K -0.635%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-31 17:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.66%EV -9.63%E -8.92%K -120.38%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.71%EV +1.87%E +0.117%K +0.125%G +0.002%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.62%EV -5.40%E -0.568%K -0.635%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-31 17:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 84.90%EV -11.30%E -10.66%K -188.40%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.62%EV +1.87%E +0.117%K +0.125%G +0.002%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.47%EV -5.40%E -0.568%K -0.635%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-31 17:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 84.90%EV -11.30%E -10.66%K -188.40%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.62%EV +1.87%E +0.117%K +0.125%G +0.002%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.47%EV -5.40%E -0.568%K -0.635%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-31 17:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 84.46%EV -11.30%E -10.66%K -188.40%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.60%EV +1.87%E +0.117%K +0.125%G +0.002%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.95%EV -10.38%E -1.15%K -1.30%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-31 17:30
Pinnacle🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.84%EV -6.28%E -5.61%K -52.36%G +0.000%15.61I 6.41%NM 6.09%EV -0.615%E -0.039%K -0.042%G +0.000%10.47I 9.55%NM 9.08%EV +4.26%E +0.407%K +0.450%G +0.019%5.2%2026-10-31 17:50
Coral🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.61%E -4.04%K -32.93%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.39%EV -4.50%E -0.300%K -0.321%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -0.420%E -0.042%K -0.047%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-31 17:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.45%E -4.82%K -41.90%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.34%EV -4.50%E -0.300%K -0.321%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.51%EV -0.420%E -0.042%K -0.047%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-31 17:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.76%EV -5.45%E -4.82%K -41.90%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV -4.50%E -0.300%K -0.321%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -15.36%E -1.81%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-31 17:54
William Hill🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.75%EV -9.63%E -8.92%K -120.38%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -4.50%E -0.300%K -0.321%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -0.420%E -0.042%K -0.047%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-31 17:09
888sport🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.75%EV -9.63%E -8.92%K -120.38%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -4.50%E -0.300%K -0.321%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -0.420%E -0.042%K -0.047%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-31 17:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.75%EV -9.63%E -8.92%K -120.38%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -4.50%E -0.300%K -0.321%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -0.420%E -0.042%K -0.047%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-31 17:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.75%EV -9.63%E -8.92%K -120.38%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -4.50%E -0.300%K -0.321%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -0.420%E -0.042%K -0.047%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-31 17:10
SportsBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 84.75%EV -9.63%E -8.92%K -120.38%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -4.50%E -0.300%K -0.321%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -0.420%E -0.042%K -0.047%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-31 17:50
betfred_uk🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.14%EV -7.96%E -7.23%K -79.57%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -4.50%E -0.300%K -0.321%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.76%EV -15.36%E -1.81%K -2.05%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-31 17:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 84.65%EV -14.65%E -14.36%K -732.56%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.76%EV -4.50%E -0.300%K -0.321%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.59%EV -10.38%E -1.15%K -1.30%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-31 17:30
Paddy Power🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 84.50%EV -10.47%E -9.78%K -149.54%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.46%EV -10.87%E -0.776%K -0.836%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.04%EV -0.420%E -0.042%K -0.047%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-31 17:41
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 84.50%EV -10.47%E -9.78%K -149.54%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.46%EV -10.87%E -0.776%K -0.836%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.04%EV -0.420%E -0.042%K -0.047%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-31 17:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 81.72%EV -10.47%E -9.78%K -149.54%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.00%EV -20.42%E -1.63%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.28%EV -22.83%E -2.95%K -3.38%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-31 17:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.25%EV -7.12%E -6.41%K -64.73%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.61%EV -23.60%E -1.97%K -2.15%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -10.38%E -1.15%K -1.30%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-31 17:55
Sky Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 82.78%EV -10.47%E -9.78%K -149.54%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.38%EV -23.60%E -1.97%K -2.15%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.84%EV -10.38%E -1.15%K -1.30%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-31 17:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.34%EV -7.96%E -7.23%K -79.57%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.13%EV -29.97%E -2.72%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -15.36%E -1.81%K -2.05%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-31 17:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 78.64%EV -11.30%E -10.66%K -188.40%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.34%EV -36.33%E -3.63%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 13.02%EV -36.27%E -5.67%K -6.72%G +0.000%20.0%2026-10-31 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.14I 87.72%NM 87.09%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.96%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.94%0.7%2026-10-31 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.81%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.95%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.25%1.1%2026-10-31 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.81%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.95%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.25%1.1%2026-10-31 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 86.81%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.95%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.25%1.1%2026-10-31 17:55
Smarkets◎1.13I 88.50%NM 86.59%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.89%11.49I 8.70%NM 8.52%2.2%2026-10-31 17:55

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