The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Al-Hazem v Neom

Kickoff: 2026-10-10 13:50 UTC

Final: Al-Hazem 1–1 Neom

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Hazem (Local)

Prediction 23.50%4.25fair odd
EV +3.41%
Edge +0.776%
Kelly +1.00%
Growth +0.034%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.55%23.43%23.50%24.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.074.204.4028.57%24.54%23.81%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Neom (Visit)

Prediction 53.10%1.88fair odd
EV -6.54%
Edge -3.71%
Kelly -8.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.87%53.12%53.01%55.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.671.671.7662.11%59.77%59.88%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.39%4.27fair odd
EV -4.09%
Edge -0.997%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.41%23.45%23.49%24.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.733.654.1028.57%26.83%27.40%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Hazem (Local): 23.50%; Neom (Visit): 53.10%; Draw: 23.39%. For Al-Hazem (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.25. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.41%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV +3.41%E +0.776%K +1.00%G +0.034%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.58%EV -11.85%E -7.14%K -17.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.82%EV -14.61%E -4.00%K -5.51%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-03 17:55
Grosvenor🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV +3.41%E +0.776%K +1.00%G +0.034%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.58%EV -11.85%E -7.14%K -17.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.82%EV -14.61%E -4.00%K -5.51%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-03 17:55
Unibet (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV +3.41%E +0.776%K +1.00%G +0.034%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.58%EV -11.85%E -7.14%K -17.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.82%EV -14.61%E -4.00%K -5.51%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-03 17:55
Unibet (NL)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV +3.41%E +0.776%K +1.00%G +0.034%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.58%EV -11.85%E -7.14%K -17.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.82%EV -14.61%E -4.00%K -5.51%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-03 17:55
Svenska Spel🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV +3.41%E +0.776%K +1.00%G +0.034%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.58%EV -11.85%E -7.14%K -17.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.82%EV -14.61%E -4.00%K -5.51%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-03 17:55
ATG (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV +3.41%E +0.776%K +1.00%G +0.034%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.58%EV -11.85%E -7.14%K -17.95%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.82%EV -14.61%E -4.00%K -5.51%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-03 17:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.60%EV +1.77%E +0.408%K +0.531%G +0.009%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.02%EV -9.72%E -5.72%K -13.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -6.43%E -1.61%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-05 07:15
SportsBet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.52%EV +1.06%E +0.247%K +0.322%G +0.003%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.75%EV -10.26%E -6.07%K -14.86%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.73%EV -8.76%E -2.25%K -3.02%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-04 09:15
Virgin Bet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.69%EV +1.06%E +0.247%K +0.322%G +0.003%1.63I 61.35%NM 54.59%EV -13.44%E -8.25%K -21.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.72%EV -15.78%E -4.38%K -6.07%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-03 17:55
LiveScore Bet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.69%EV +1.06%E +0.247%K +0.322%G +0.003%1.63I 61.35%NM 54.59%EV -13.44%E -8.25%K -21.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.72%EV -15.78%E -4.38%K -6.07%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-03 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.55%EV +1.06%E +0.247%K +0.322%G +0.003%1.62I 61.73%NM 54.55%EV -13.97%E -8.63%K -22.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.89%EV -16.95%E -4.78%K -6.65%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-03 17:55
1xBet🎯4.28I 23.36%NM 21.82%EV +0.594%E +0.139%K +0.181%G +0.001%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.60%EV -9.19%E -5.38%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.58%EV -7.36%E -1.86%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-04 09:15
betfred_uk🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -1.29%E -0.306%K -0.402%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -9.72%E -5.72%K -13.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -12.27%E -3.27%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-04 09:15
Paddy Power🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -1.29%E -0.306%K -0.402%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -11.32%E -6.78%K -16.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -11.10%E -2.92%K -3.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-04 09:15
Pinnacle🎯3.91I 25.58%NM 23.87%EV -8.10%E -2.07%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.03%EV -6.54%E -3.71%K -8.60%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.10%EV -5.49%E -1.36%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-04 09:10
Tipico (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -8.34%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.04%EV -9.72%E -5.72%K -13.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -4.09%E -0.997%K -1.32%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-04 09:10
Unibet (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -8.34%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -8.13%E -4.70%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -8.76%E -2.25%K -3.02%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-05 10:50
888sport🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -8.34%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.41%EV -9.72%E -5.72%K -13.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -15.78%E -4.38%K -6.07%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-04 21:15
888sport (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -8.34%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.41%EV -9.72%E -5.72%K -13.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -15.78%E -4.38%K -6.07%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-04 21:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -8.34%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.41%EV -9.72%E -5.72%K -13.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -15.78%E -4.38%K -6.07%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-04 21:15
William Hill🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -8.34%E -2.14%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.41%EV -9.72%E -5.72%K -13.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -15.78%E -4.38%K -6.07%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-04 21:14
Sky Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 22.57%EV -10.69%E -2.81%K -3.82%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 52.93%EV -13.97%E -8.63%K -22.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.50%EV -18.12%E -5.18%K -7.25%G +0.000%16.6%2026-10-04 09:30
Winamax (DE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%EV -11.86%E -3.16%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 53.23%EV -10.79%E -6.42%K -15.86%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -8.76%E -2.25%K -3.02%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-05 10:55
Betclic (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.37%EV -11.86%E -3.16%K -4.31%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 53.12%EV -12.38%E -7.50%K -19.05%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 23.50%EV -12.74%E -3.42%K -4.67%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-05 10:50
Unibet (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 23.27%EV -13.04%E -3.52%K -4.83%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 53.47%EV -14.50%E -9.01%K -23.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.27%EV -13.44%E -3.63%K -4.98%G +0.000%16.2%2026-10-05 10:50
BoyleSports🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.06%EV -15.39%E -4.27%K -5.92%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 51.87%EV -11.32%E -6.78%K -16.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.06%EV -15.78%E -4.38%K -6.07%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-04 09:15
Winamax (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 24.51%EV -17.74%E -5.07%K -7.10%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 52.31%EV -12.91%E -7.87%K -20.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.18%EV -13.44%E -3.63%K -4.98%G +0.000%16.6%2026-10-05 10:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎4.17I 23.98%NM 23.10%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.81%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.10%3.8%2026-10-05 13:40
Smarkets◎3.60I 27.78%NM 23.91%1.65I 60.61%NM 52.17%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.91%16.2%2026-10-05 10:50