The School of Odds
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Al-Hazem v Al-Fayha

Kickoff: 2026-10-22 13:39 UTC

Final: Al-Hazem 2–2 Al-Fayha

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Hazem (Local)

Prediction 44.58%2.24fair odd
EV -4.16%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -3.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.41%44.71%44.42%47.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.862.062.062.1553.76%48.47%48.54%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Fayha (Visit)

Prediction 28.36%3.53fair odd
EV -0.168%
Edge -0.048%
Kelly -0.067%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.02%28.18%28.52%30.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.123.103.5235.09%32.07%32.26%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.06%3.70fair odd
EV -4.74%
Edge -1.35%
Kelly -1.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.09%27.11%27.07%28.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.293.333.5232.26%30.37%30.08%28.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Hazem (Local): 44.58%; Al-Fayha (Visit): 28.36%; Draw: 27.06%. For Al-Fayha (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.53. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.52, with an expected value of -0.168%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.16%E -1.94%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.83%E -2.41%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -7.99%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-22 13:25
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.16%E -1.94%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.83%E -2.41%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -7.99%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-22 13:16
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -4.16%E -1.94%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -7.83%E -2.41%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -7.99%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-22 13:16
Unibet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.51%EV -4.61%E -2.15%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -14.92%E -4.97%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.16%EV -9.34%E -2.79%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-22 13:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.51%EV -4.61%E -2.15%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -14.92%E -4.97%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.16%EV -9.34%E -2.79%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-22 13:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.51%EV -4.61%E -2.15%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -14.92%E -4.97%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.16%EV -9.34%E -2.79%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-22 13:35
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.51%EV -4.61%E -2.15%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -14.92%E -4.97%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.16%EV -9.34%E -2.79%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-22 13:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.51%EV -4.61%E -2.15%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -14.92%E -4.97%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.16%EV -9.34%E -2.79%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-22 13:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.51%EV -4.61%E -2.15%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -14.92%E -4.97%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.16%EV -9.34%E -2.79%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-22 13:35
1xBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.51%EV -6.39%E -3.04%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.07%EV -5.56%E -1.67%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.41%EV -7.72%E -2.26%K -3.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-22 13:16
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -6.39%E -3.04%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -12.08%E -3.90%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -7.99%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-22 13:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.41%EV -6.39%E -3.04%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.19%EV -16.33%E -5.54%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.40%EV -12.05%E -3.71%K -5.35%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-22 13:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.41%EV -6.39%E -3.04%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.19%EV -16.33%E -5.54%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.40%EV -12.05%E -3.71%K -5.35%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-22 13:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.64%EV -7.28%E -3.50%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.07%EV -16.33%E -5.54%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.29%EV -12.05%E -3.71%K -5.35%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-22 13:35
Pinnacle🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -7.73%E -3.73%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.02%EV -0.168%E -0.048%K -0.067%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.02%EV -4.74%E -1.35%K -1.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-22 13:25
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.62%E -4.20%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.29%EV -4.99%E -1.49%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.13%EV -12.05%E -3.71%K -5.35%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-22 13:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.34%EV -8.62%E -4.20%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -12.08%E -3.90%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -6.63%E -1.92%K -2.71%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-22 13:24
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.06%EV -8.62%E -4.20%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -12.08%E -3.90%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -16.11%E -5.20%K -7.67%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-22 13:16
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.06%EV -8.62%E -4.20%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -12.08%E -3.90%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -16.11%E -5.20%K -7.67%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-22 13:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.06%EV -8.62%E -4.20%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -12.08%E -3.90%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -16.11%E -5.20%K -7.67%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-22 13:16
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.06%EV -8.62%E -4.20%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -12.08%E -3.90%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -16.11%E -5.20%K -7.67%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-22 13:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 42.55%EV -9.96%E -4.93%K -9.76%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.16%EV -19.17%E -6.73%K -10.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.29%EV -14.75%E -4.68%K -6.86%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-22 13:35
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -10.85%E -5.42%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -6.41%E -1.94%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -13.40%E -4.19%K -6.09%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-22 13:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -10.85%E -5.42%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -6.41%E -1.94%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -13.40%E -4.19%K -6.09%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-22 13:35
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -10.85%E -5.42%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -12.08%E -3.90%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -10.69%E -3.24%K -4.65%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-22 13:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -10.85%E -5.42%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -14.92%E -4.97%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -7.99%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-22 13:25
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.64%EV -10.85%E -5.42%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.09%EV -14.92%E -4.97%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.27%EV -13.40%E -4.19%K -6.09%G +0.000%14.6%2026-10-22 13:16
Betclic (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.17%EV -13.52%E -6.97%K -14.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.27%EV -12.08%E -3.90%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.56%EV -10.69%E -3.24%K -4.65%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-22 13:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.19%EV -13.97%E -7.24%K -15.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -0.735%E -0.210%K -0.294%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -7.99%E -2.35%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-22 13:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 45.24%EV -17.09%E -9.19%K -19.87%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.05%EV -14.92%E -4.97%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.71%EV -14.75%E -4.68%K -6.86%G +0.000%18.8%2026-10-22 13:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.82%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.01%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.17%1.4%2026-10-22 13:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.82%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.01%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.17%1.4%2026-10-22 13:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.82%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.01%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.17%1.4%2026-10-22 13:30
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 45.13%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.43%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.43%2.1%2026-10-22 13:25
Smarkets◎2.18I 45.87%NM 44.86%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.79%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.35%2.3%2026-10-22 13:35