The School of Odds
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Al-Hazem v Al-Fateh

Kickoff: 2026-10-15 15:15 UTC

Final: Al-Hazem 2–3 Al-Fateh

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Hazem (Local)

Prediction 38.05%2.63fair odd
EV -2.97%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -1.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.35%38.25%38.08%40.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.122.312.302.5547.17%43.29%43.48%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Fateh (Visit)

Prediction 35.18%2.84fair odd
EV -1.15%
Edge -0.410%
Kelly -0.637%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.71%34.89%35.23%35.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.642.632.8140.82%37.88%38.02%35.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.77%3.74fair odd
EV -0.140%
Edge -0.038%
Kelly -0.051%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.72%26.87%26.69%28.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.383.403.7331.25%29.60%29.41%26.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Hazem (Local): 38.05%; Al-Fateh (Visit): 35.18%; Draw: 26.77%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.74. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.73, with an expected value of -0.140%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -2.97%E -1.16%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.63%EV -3.26%E -1.19%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.01%EV -8.97%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-15 15:05
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -4.87%E -1.95%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.07%EV -5.02%E -1.86%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -6.30%E -1.80%K -2.52%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-15 15:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -4.87%E -1.95%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.76%EV -7.84%E -2.99%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -6.30%E -1.80%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-15 15:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -6.77%E -2.77%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -8.54%E -3.28%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.97%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-15 15:00
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -8.68%E -3.62%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -6.78%E -2.56%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -8.97%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-15 15:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -8.68%E -3.62%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -10.30%E -4.04%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -6.30%E -1.80%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-15 15:00
1xBet🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 40.14%EV -9.06%E -3.79%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.14%EV -1.15%E -0.410%K -0.637%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.72%EV -0.140%E -0.038%K -0.051%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-15 15:10
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -9.44%E -3.97%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.09%EV -7.84%E -2.99%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -6.30%E -1.80%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-15 15:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.08%EV -9.44%E -3.97%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.46%EV -7.49%E -2.85%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -11.65%E -3.53%K -5.07%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-15 15:05
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.03%EV -9.44%E -3.97%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.54%EV -7.84%E -2.99%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -11.65%E -3.53%K -5.07%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-15 15:00
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.77%EV -9.44%E -3.97%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.57%EV -8.54%E -3.28%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.66%EV -12.99%E -4.00%K -5.77%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-15 15:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.01%EV -10.58%E -4.50%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.73%EV -12.06%E -4.82%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -8.97%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-15 15:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -12.48%E -5.43%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -3.26%E -1.19%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.30%E -1.80%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-15 15:00
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.21%EV -12.48%E -5.43%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.16%EV -12.06%E -4.82%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -11.65%E -3.53%K -5.07%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-15 15:10
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.21%EV -12.48%E -5.43%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.16%EV -12.06%E -4.82%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -11.65%E -3.53%K -5.07%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-15 15:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.21%EV -12.48%E -5.43%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.16%EV -12.06%E -4.82%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -11.65%E -3.53%K -5.07%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-15 15:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.21%EV -12.48%E -5.43%K -9.60%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.16%EV -12.06%E -4.82%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -11.65%E -3.53%K -5.07%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-15 15:10
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.54%EV -15.15%E -6.79%K -12.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -3.26%E -1.19%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -8.97%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 14:45
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.54%EV -15.15%E -6.79%K -12.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -3.26%E -1.19%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -8.97%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 14:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.54%EV -15.15%E -6.79%K -12.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -3.26%E -1.19%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -8.97%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 14:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.54%EV -15.15%E -6.79%K -12.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -3.26%E -1.19%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -8.97%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 14:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.54%EV -15.15%E -6.79%K -12.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -3.26%E -1.19%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -8.97%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 14:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.54%EV -15.15%E -6.79%K -12.31%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.87%EV -3.26%E -1.19%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -8.97%E -2.64%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-15 14:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.46%EV -16.29%E -7.40%K -13.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -5.02%E -1.86%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.57%EV -10.31%E -3.08%K -4.39%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-15 14:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.46%EV -16.29%E -7.40%K -13.57%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.97%EV -5.02%E -1.86%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.57%EV -10.31%E -3.08%K -4.39%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-15 14:45
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.27%EV -16.29%E -7.40%K -13.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.55%EV -12.06%E -4.82%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.18%EV -11.65%E -3.53%K -5.07%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-15 15:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.52%EV -17.05%E -7.82%K -14.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -5.02%E -1.86%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -11.65%E -3.53%K -5.07%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-15 14:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 39.22%EV -18.19%E -8.46%K -15.82%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 34.42%EV -13.82%E -5.64%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.35%EV -14.33%E -4.48%K -6.51%G +0.000%18.6%2026-10-15 15:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 40.36%EV -19.33%E -9.12%K -17.26%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.91%EV -8.54%E -3.28%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.74%EV -14.33%E -4.48%K -6.51%G +0.000%16.9%2026-10-15 14:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.19%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.97%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.84%0.7%2026-10-15 15:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.19%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.97%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.84%0.7%2026-10-15 15:10
Smarkets◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.13%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.77%0.9%2026-10-15 15:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10%2.82I 35.46%NM 35.13%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.77%0.9%2026-10-15 15:10
Kalshi◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.65%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.60%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-10-15 15:10