The School of Odds
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Al-Hazem v Al-Ettifaq

Kickoff: 2026-02-27 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Hazem (Local)

Prediction 36.71%2.72fair odd
EV +4.98%
Edge +1.74%
Kelly +2.68%
Growth +0.133%

assuming max odds 2.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.90%36.72%36.75%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.372.532.502.8642.19%39.59%40.00%34.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Ettifaq (Visit)

Prediction 36.49%2.74fair odd
EV -5.13%
Edge -1.97%
Kelly -3.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.35%36.46%36.49%38.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.462.442.6043.48%40.73%40.98%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.81%3.73fair odd
EV -3.50%
Edge -0.971%
Kelly -1.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.17%26.82%26.76%28.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.383.403.6031.25%29.55%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Hazem (Local): 36.71%; Al-Ettifaq (Visit): 36.49%; Draw: 26.81%. For Al-Hazem (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.72. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.86, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.98%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.90%EV +4.98%E +1.74%K +2.68%G +0.133%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.58%EV -5.86%E -2.27%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.52%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.1%2026-02-27 18:54
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.73%EV -4.56%E -1.76%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.73%EV -5.13%E -1.97%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -3.50%E -0.971%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.7%2026-02-27 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -4.56%E -1.76%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -8.78%E -3.51%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -6.18%E -1.76%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-27 18:39
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.42%EV -4.56%E -1.76%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.89%EV -11.34%E -4.67%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.69%EV -7.52%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-27 18:39
Unibet (NL)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.42%EV -4.56%E -1.76%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.89%EV -11.34%E -4.67%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.69%EV -7.52%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-27 18:39
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.42%EV -4.56%E -1.76%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.89%EV -11.34%E -4.67%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.69%EV -7.52%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-27 18:39
Grosvenor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.42%EV -4.56%E -1.76%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.89%EV -11.34%E -4.67%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.69%EV -7.52%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-27 18:39
ATG (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.42%EV -4.56%E -1.76%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.89%EV -11.34%E -4.67%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.69%EV -7.52%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-27 18:39
Svenska Spel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.42%EV -4.56%E -1.76%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.89%EV -11.34%E -4.67%K -7.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.69%EV -7.52%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-27 18:39
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -4.56%E -1.76%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -10.61%E -4.33%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-27 18:54
LeoVegas🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -4.56%E -1.76%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -12.43%E -5.18%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-27 18:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV -4.56%E -1.76%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.04%EV -12.43%E -5.18%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-27 18:40
Pinnacle🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 36.80%EV -4.93%E -1.90%K -3.10%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.66%EV -5.13%E -1.97%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.55%EV -3.76%E -1.05%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.9%2026-02-27 18:49
Unibet (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.82%EV -8.23%E -3.29%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.10%EV -6.96%E -2.73%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-27 18:39
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.23%E -3.29%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.78%E -3.51%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.4%2026-02-27 18:44
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.23%E -3.29%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -8.78%E -3.51%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -11.54%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.3%2026-02-27 18:44
Virgin Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.47%EV -8.23%E -3.29%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.06%EV -14.98%E -6.43%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.47%EV -10.20%E -3.04%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.8%2026-02-27 18:39
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.47%EV -8.23%E -3.29%K -5.49%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.06%EV -14.98%E -6.43%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.47%EV -10.20%E -3.04%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.8%2026-02-27 18:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.43%EV -8.78%E -3.51%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -7.52%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000%9.8%2026-02-27 18:39
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.31%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.31%EV -10.61%E -4.33%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.37%EV -12.88%E -3.96%K -5.72%G +0.000%12.4%2026-02-27 18:44
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.89%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.64%EV -12.43%E -5.18%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.48%EV -14.22%E -4.44%K -6.46%G +0.000%13.7%2026-02-27 18:49
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.89%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.64%EV -12.43%E -5.18%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.48%EV -14.22%E -4.44%K -6.46%G +0.000%13.7%2026-02-27 18:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.89%EV -10.07%E -4.11%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.64%EV -12.43%E -5.18%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.48%EV -14.22%E -4.44%K -6.46%G +0.000%13.7%2026-02-27 18:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -11.90%E -4.96%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -10.61%E -4.33%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-27 18:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.64%EV -11.90%E -4.96%K -8.50%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.89%EV -10.61%E -4.33%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.48%EV -14.22%E -4.44%K -6.46%G +0.000%13.7%2026-02-27 18:54
Betclic (FR)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.17%EV -12.64%E -5.31%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 35.35%EV -6.23%E -2.42%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 26.48%EV -8.05%E -2.35%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-27 18:38
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 36.28%EV -12.64%E -5.31%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.55%EV -16.08%E -6.99%K -12.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.17%EV -11.54%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%15.8%2026-02-27 18:39
Unibet (FR)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.57%EV -13.01%E -5.49%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.61%EV -8.78%E -3.51%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.82%EV -11.00%E -3.31%K -4.74%G +0.000%12.3%2026-02-27 18:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.26%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.69%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.05%1.3%2026-02-27 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.26%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.69%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.05%1.3%2026-02-27 18:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.26%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.69%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.05%1.3%2026-02-27 18:54
Smarkets◎2.70I 37.04%NM 35.96%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.06%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.97%3.0%2026-02-27 18:54