The School of Odds
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Al-Fayha v Al-Ahli

Kickoff: 2026-10-19 15:05 UTC

Final: Al-Fayha 2–3 Al-Ahli

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Fayha (Local)

Prediction 11.52%8.68fair odd
EV +8.78%
Edge +0.930%
Kelly +1.04%
Growth +0.091%

assuming max odds 9.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.14%11.58%11.31%12.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.757.667.509.4414.81%13.06%13.33%10.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Ahli (Visit)

Prediction 70.22%1.42fair odd
EV -3.10%
Edge -2.24%
Kelly -8.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.71%70.19%70.23%71.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.321.301.3881.97%75.93%76.92%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.26%5.48fair odd
EV +4.07%
Edge +0.714%
Kelly +0.866%
Growth +0.035%

assuming max odds 5.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.03%18.23%18.46%21.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.684.605.7025.00%21.38%21.74%17.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Fayha (Local): 11.52%; Al-Ahli (Visit): 70.22%; Draw: 18.26%. For Al-Fayha (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.68. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.44, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.78%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯9.44I 10.59%NM 10.14%EV +8.78%E +0.930%K +1.04%G +0.091%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.88%EV -5.20%E -3.85%K -14.87%G +0.000%5.04I 19.84%NM 18.99%EV -7.98%E -1.58%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-19 15:00
SportsBet🎯8.75I 11.43%NM 10.47%EV +0.825%E +0.094%K +0.106%G +0.001%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.57%EV -10.12%E -7.91%K -36.14%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.96%EV -6.89%E -1.35%K -1.68%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-19 14:50
Coral🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.17%EV -2.06%E -0.242%K -0.274%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.83%EV -4.50%E -3.31%K -12.50%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.99%EV -8.71%E -1.74%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-19 14:56
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.12%EV -2.06%E -0.242%K -0.274%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.99%EV -5.20%E -3.85%K -14.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -8.71%E -1.74%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-19 14:56
Unibet (UK)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -2.06%E -0.242%K -0.274%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -6.61%E -4.97%K -20.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -8.71%E -1.74%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-19 15:04
Tipico (DE)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -2.06%E -0.242%K -0.274%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 71.75%EV -10.82%E -8.52%K -40.08%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.52%EV -5.06%E -0.973%K -1.20%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-19 15:00
betfred_uk🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.65%EV -2.06%E -0.242%K -0.274%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.66%EV -8.71%E -6.70%K -29.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -16.01%E -3.48%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-19 14:50
Paddy Power🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -2.06%E -0.242%K -0.274%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.58%EV -12.23%E -9.78%K -48.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -8.71%E -1.74%K -2.18%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-19 14:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -2.06%E -0.242%K -0.274%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.58%EV -12.23%E -9.78%K -48.90%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -8.71%E -1.74%K -2.18%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-19 14:50
Pinnacle🎯8.47I 11.81%NM 11.14%EV -2.40%E -0.284%K -0.321%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.51%EV -7.31%E -5.54%K -22.84%G +0.000%5.44I 18.38%NM 17.35%EV -0.678%E -0.125%K -0.153%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-19 14:56
Betclic (FR)🎯7.75I 12.90%NM 11.32%EV -10.70%E -1.38%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 70.20%EV -12.23%E -9.78%K -48.90%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.47%EV -13.28%E -2.80%K -3.54%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-19 15:04
Sky Bet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -13.58%E -1.81%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.27%EV -9.42%E -7.30%K -32.47%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.81%EV -13.28%E -2.80%K -3.54%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-19 14:55
888sport🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -13.58%E -1.81%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.68%EV -8.71%E -6.70%K -29.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -16.01%E -3.48%K -4.45%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-19 15:00
William Hill🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -13.58%E -1.81%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.68%EV -8.71%E -6.70%K -29.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -16.01%E -3.48%K -4.45%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-19 15:00
888sport (SE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -13.58%E -1.81%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.68%EV -8.71%E -6.70%K -29.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -16.01%E -3.48%K -4.45%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-19 15:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -13.58%E -1.81%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.68%EV -8.71%E -6.70%K -29.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -16.01%E -3.48%K -4.45%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-19 15:00
Winamax (DE)🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.60%EV -16.46%E -2.27%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.37%EV -10.12%E -7.91%K -36.14%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.03%EV +4.07%E +0.714%K +0.866%G +0.035%9.5%2026-10-19 14:50
Winamax (FR)🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.35%EV -16.46%E -2.27%K -2.63%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 71.07%EV -11.52%E -9.15%K -44.32%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.58%EV -1.41%E -0.261%K -0.320%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-19 15:04
Unibet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -19.34%E -2.76%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.71%EV -3.10%E -2.24%K -8.15%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -22.41%E -5.27%K -6.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-19 15:00
Unibet (NL)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -19.34%E -2.76%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.71%EV -3.10%E -2.24%K -8.15%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -22.41%E -5.27%K -6.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-19 15:00
Grosvenor🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -19.34%E -2.76%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.71%EV -3.10%E -2.24%K -8.15%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -22.41%E -5.27%K -6.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-19 15:00
Unibet (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -19.34%E -2.76%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.71%EV -3.10%E -2.24%K -8.15%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -22.41%E -5.27%K -6.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-19 15:00
Svenska Spel🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -19.34%E -2.76%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.71%EV -3.10%E -2.24%K -8.15%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -22.41%E -5.27%K -6.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-19 15:00
ATG (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.95%EV -19.34%E -2.76%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 65.71%EV -3.10%E -2.24%K -8.15%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.34%EV -22.41%E -5.27%K -6.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-19 15:00
Virgin Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -19.34%E -2.76%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.87%EV -4.50%E -3.31%K -12.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -23.32%E -5.55%K -7.29%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-19 15:00
LiveScore Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -19.34%E -2.76%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.87%EV -4.50%E -3.31%K -12.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -23.32%E -5.55%K -7.29%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-19 15:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.74%EV -19.34%E -2.76%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 66.04%EV -5.20%E -3.85%K -14.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.23%EV -23.32%E -5.55%K -7.29%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-19 15:00
BoyleSports🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.59%EV -19.34%E -2.76%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 67.81%EV -8.71%E -6.70%K -29.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.59%EV -17.84%E -3.96%K -5.10%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-19 14:50
Unibet (FR)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 11.98%EV -19.34%E -2.76%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 68.74%EV -14.33%E -11.75%K -65.15%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 19.28%EV -20.58%E -4.73%K -6.14%G +0.000%19.2%2026-10-19 15:00
PMU (FR)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 12.69%EV -22.22%E -3.29%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 65.89%EV -8.71%E -6.70%K -29.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.42%EV -26.97%E -6.74%K -8.99%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-19 15:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎10.50I 9.52%NM 9.50%1.36I 73.53%NM 73.31%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.19%0.3%2026-10-19 15:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎10.50I 9.52%NM 9.50%1.36I 73.53%NM 73.31%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.19%0.3%2026-10-19 15:00
Smarkets◎10.50I 9.52%NM 9.47%1.36I 73.53%NM 73.09%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.44%0.6%2026-10-19 15:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎10.50I 9.52%NM 9.47%1.36I 73.53%NM 73.09%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.44%0.6%2026-10-19 14:56
Kalshi◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.89%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.28%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.82%1.1%2026-10-19 14:46