The School of Odds
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Al-Fateh v Al-Shabab

Kickoff: 2026-10-22 14:46 UTC

Final: Al-Fateh 1–3 Al-Shabab

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Fateh (Local)

Prediction 31.81%3.14fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -0.866%
Kelly -1.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.90%31.79%31.74%33.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.792.753.0638.46%35.78%36.36%32.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Shabab (Visit)

Prediction 42.64%2.35fair odd
EV -1.51%
Edge -0.655%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.33%42.64%42.67%44.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.152.152.3151.55%46.58%46.51%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.55%3.91fair odd
EV -4.18%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.34%25.58%25.59%26.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.533.553.7530.30%28.37%28.17%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Fateh (Local): 31.81%; Al-Shabab (Visit): 42.64%; Draw: 25.55%. For Al-Shabab (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.35. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.31, with an expected value of -1.51%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.06I 32.68%NM 31.12%EV -2.65%E -0.866%K -1.29%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.71%EV -4.92%E -2.21%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.17%EV -6.99%E -1.92%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-22 14:40
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -6.20%E -2.82%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -5.46%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-22 11:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -6.20%E -2.82%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -5.46%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-22 11:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.90%EV -6.15%E -2.08%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.46%EV -12.60%E -6.15%K -12.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.64%EV -5.46%E -1.48%K -2.02%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-22 14:02
1xBet🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.84%EV -7.10%E -2.43%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.52%EV -1.51%E -0.655%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.64%EV -4.44%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-22 14:40
SportsBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -8.33%E -3.88%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -10.57%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-22 14:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -8.38%E -2.91%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -4.07%E -1.81%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -8.02%E -2.23%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-22 11:59
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -10.47%E -4.98%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.57%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-22 14:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -10.47%E -4.98%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -10.57%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-22 14:30
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -8.33%E -3.88%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -15.68%E -4.75%K -6.82%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-22 14:15
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -8.33%E -3.88%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -15.68%E -4.75%K -6.82%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-22 14:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -8.33%E -3.88%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -15.68%E -4.75%K -6.82%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-22 14:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -10.92%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.33%EV -8.33%E -3.88%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -15.68%E -4.75%K -6.82%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-22 14:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 31.54%EV -11.56%E -4.16%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.41%EV -13.88%E -6.87%K -13.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.05%EV -10.57%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-22 14:18
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.20%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -8.33%E -3.88%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.34%EV -4.18%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-22 13:10
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.06%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -6.20%E -2.82%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -9.29%E -2.62%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-22 14:15
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.06%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -6.20%E -2.82%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -9.29%E -2.62%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-22 14:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.06%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -6.20%E -2.82%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -9.29%E -2.62%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-22 14:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.06%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -6.20%E -2.82%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -9.29%E -2.62%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-22 14:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.06%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -6.20%E -2.82%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -9.29%E -2.62%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-22 14:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.06%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -6.20%E -2.82%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -9.29%E -2.62%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-22 14:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -12.51%E -4.55%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.18%EV -8.33%E -3.88%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.85%EV -6.74%E -1.85%K -2.54%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-22 12:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -14.10%E -5.22%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -8.33%E -3.88%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -10.57%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-22 14:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -14.10%E -5.22%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -8.33%E -3.88%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -10.57%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-22 14:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.94%EV -14.10%E -5.22%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.35%EV -10.47%E -4.98%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.71%EV -8.02%E -2.23%K -3.08%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-22 12:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -14.10%E -5.22%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.44%EV -8.76%E -4.09%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.71%EV -11.85%E -3.43%K -4.84%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-22 14:15
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.04%EV -14.10%E -5.22%K -8.30%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.25%EV -14.73%E -7.36%K -14.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.71%EV -10.57%E -3.02%K -4.23%G +0.000%15.6%2026-10-22 12:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 31.68%EV -15.69%E -5.92%K -9.51%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 43.27%EV -17.29%E -8.91%K -18.39%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.06%EV -14.40%E -4.30%K -6.13%G +0.000%19.1%2026-10-22 14:19
PMU (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 32.98%EV -17.29%E -6.65%K -10.80%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 41.42%EV -11.74%E -5.67%K -10.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.60%EV -14.40%E -4.30%K -6.13%G +0.000%16.6%2026-10-22 14:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.94%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.68%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39%1.0%2026-10-22 14:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.94%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.68%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39%1.0%2026-10-22 14:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.94%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.68%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.39%1.0%2026-10-22 14:40
Kalshi◎3.12I 32.05%NM 31.40%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.16%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.45%2.1%2026-10-22 14:30
Smarkets◎3.05I 32.79%NM 31.95%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.74%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.31%2.6%2026-10-22 14:35