The School of Odds
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Al-Fateh v Al-Khaleej

Kickoff: 2026-04-24 15:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Fateh (Local)

Prediction 40.54%2.47fair odd
EV -3.93%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -2.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.36%40.45%40.55%42.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.232.252.3747.62%44.76%44.44%42.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Khaleej (Visit)

Prediction 33.67%2.97fair odd
EV -3.02%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.25%33.71%33.70%34.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.702.702.8840.00%37.03%37.04%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.79%3.88fair odd
EV -4.58%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -1.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.59%25.84%25.75%27.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.533.603.7032.26%28.31%27.78%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Fateh (Local): 40.54%; Al-Khaleej (Visit): 33.67%; Draw: 25.79%. For Al-Khaleej (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.97. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.88, with an expected value of -3.02%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.96%EV -3.93%E -1.66%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.44%EV -7.40%E -2.69%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -4.58%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-23 21:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.68%EV -3.93%E -1.66%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.20%EV -7.40%E -2.69%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 21:24
Pinnacle🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -5.55%E -2.38%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.06%EV -3.02%E -1.05%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.08%EV -5.87%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-24 03:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -6.76%E -2.94%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.08%E -3.36%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-23 21:10
1xBet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.77%EV -7.17%E -3.13%K -5.56%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.22%EV -5.38%E -1.91%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.01%EV -7.41%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-24 00:24
Betclic (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.76%EV -7.98%E -3.52%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 33.89%EV -8.07%E -2.96%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -5.87%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-24 03:50
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -8.79%E -3.91%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -7.40%E -2.69%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 16:00
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -8.79%E -3.91%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -7.40%E -2.69%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 16:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -8.79%E -3.91%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -7.40%E -2.69%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 16:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -8.79%E -3.91%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -7.40%E -2.69%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 16:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -8.79%E -3.91%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -7.40%E -2.69%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 16:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -8.79%E -3.91%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -7.40%E -2.69%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-17 16:00
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -8.79%E -3.91%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -7.40%E -2.69%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 21:39
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -8.79%E -3.91%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -5.72%E -2.04%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -9.73%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-24 00:13
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.68%EV -8.79%E -3.91%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.90%EV -9.08%E -3.36%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 21:09
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -8.79%E -3.91%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.87%EV -12.45%E -4.79%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.84%EV -5.87%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-23 21:09
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.36%EV -8.79%E -3.91%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.80%EV -11.78%E -4.50%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -14.89%E -4.51%K -6.48%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-23 21:09
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.36%EV -8.79%E -3.91%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.80%EV -11.78%E -4.50%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -14.89%E -4.51%K -6.48%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-23 21:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.36%EV -8.79%E -3.91%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.80%EV -11.78%E -4.50%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -14.89%E -4.51%K -6.48%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-23 21:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.36%EV -8.79%E -3.91%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.80%EV -11.78%E -4.50%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.84%EV -14.89%E -4.51%K -6.48%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-23 21:10
LeoVegas🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.75%EV -9.60%E -4.31%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.66%EV -9.08%E -3.36%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -8.45%E -2.38%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-17 16:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.75%EV -9.60%E -4.31%K -7.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.66%EV -9.08%E -3.36%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -8.45%E -2.38%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-17 16:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -10.82%E -4.92%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.43%EV -12.45%E -4.79%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-23 21:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.89%EV -11.63%E -5.33%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.64%EV -10.77%E -4.06%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -9.73%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-23 14:34
Virgin Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.89%EV -11.63%E -5.33%K -9.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.64%EV -10.77%E -4.06%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -9.73%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-23 14:35
PMU (FR)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 40.86%EV -12.44%E -5.76%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.56%EV -11.44%E -4.35%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.58%EV -11.02%E -3.20%K -4.50%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-17 16:00
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.32%EV -12.84%E -5.97%K -11.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.09%EV -7.40%E -2.69%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -4.58%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-23 21:35
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.32%EV -12.84%E -5.97%K -11.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.09%EV -7.40%E -2.69%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -4.58%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-23 21:40
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -12.84%E -5.97%K -11.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -9.08%E -3.36%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -9.73%E -2.78%K -3.89%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-23 21:35
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.69%EV -14.87%E -7.08%K -13.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.18%EV -15.82%E -6.33%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.13%EV -12.31%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%17.0%2026-04-23 21:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.39%EV -14.87%E -7.08%K -13.52%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.25%EV -11.44%E -4.35%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.36%EV -20.05%E -6.47%K -9.55%G +0.000%17.9%2026-04-23 21:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 41.36%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.48%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.16%3.3%2026-04-24 03:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 41.36%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.48%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.16%3.3%2026-04-24 03:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 41.36%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.48%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.16%3.3%2026-04-24 03:50
Kalshi◎2.38I 42.02%NM 40.40%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.62%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.99%4.0%2026-04-24 03:50
Smarkets◎2.28I 43.86%NM 41.57%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.46%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.97%5.5%2026-04-24 00:09