The School of Odds
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Al-Fateh v Al-Khaleej

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Fateh 2–3 Al-Khaleej

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Fateh (Local)

Prediction 50.13%1.99fair odd
EV -3.76%
Edge -1.96%
Kelly -4.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.87%50.06%50.33%52.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.801.801.9260.61%55.59%55.56%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Khaleej (Visit)

Prediction 25.61%3.90fair odd
EV +1.16%
Edge +0.295%
Kelly +0.395%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.05%25.66%25.17%27.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.653.703.9531.25%27.37%27.03%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.26%4.12fair odd
EV -1.49%
Edge -0.368%
Kelly -0.488%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.35%24.29%24.50%26.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.633.604.0629.85%27.58%27.78%24.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Fateh (Local): 50.13%; Al-Khaleej (Visit): 25.61%; Draw: 24.26%. For Al-Khaleej (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.90. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.16%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.02%EV -12.28%E -7.02%K -16.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV +1.16%E +0.295%K +0.395%G +0.005%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -11.44%E -3.13%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-18 17:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.02%EV -12.28%E -7.02%K -16.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV +1.16%E +0.295%K +0.395%G +0.005%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -11.44%E -3.13%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-18 17:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.02%EV -12.28%E -7.02%K -16.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV +1.16%E +0.295%K +0.395%G +0.005%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -11.44%E -3.13%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-18 17:54
Grosvenor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.02%EV -12.28%E -7.02%K -16.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV +1.16%E +0.295%K +0.395%G +0.005%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -11.44%E -3.13%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-18 17:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.02%EV -12.28%E -7.02%K -16.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV +1.16%E +0.295%K +0.395%G +0.005%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -11.44%E -3.13%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-18 17:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.02%EV -12.28%E -7.02%K -16.37%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV +1.16%E +0.295%K +0.395%G +0.005%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -11.44%E -3.13%K -4.32%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-18 17:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.11%EV -14.28%E -8.35%K -20.12%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.14%EV -1.40%E -0.363%K -0.490%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -12.65%E -3.52%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-18 17:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.11%EV -14.28%E -8.35%K -20.12%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.14%EV -1.40%E -0.363%K -0.490%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -12.65%E -3.52%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-18 17:54
1xBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 50.00%EV -3.76%E -1.96%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.00%EV -1.65%E -0.430%K -0.582%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.00%EV -6.83%E -1.78%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-18 17:54
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.53%EV -4.26%E -2.23%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -2.68%E -0.705%K -0.956%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -10.23%E -2.76%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-18 17:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -4.26%E -2.23%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -2.68%E -0.705%K -0.956%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -12.65%E -3.52%K -4.87%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-18 17:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.91%EV -14.79%E -8.70%K -21.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.22%EV -2.68%E -0.705%K -0.956%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.86%EV -13.87%E -3.91%K -5.44%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-18 17:54
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.34%EV -7.27%E -3.93%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.26%EV -3.70%E -0.985%K -1.34%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.40%EV -1.49%E -0.368%K -0.488%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 17:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -7.27%E -3.93%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -3.96%E -1.06%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.80%E -2.05%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 17:39
SportsBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.14%EV -7.77%E -4.22%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.93%EV -5.24%E -1.42%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.93%EV -10.23%E -2.76%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-18 17:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.04%EV -12.28%E -7.02%K -16.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -5.24%E -1.42%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.35%EV -5.38%E -1.38%K -1.85%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-18 17:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 51.97%EV -17.29%E -10.48%K -26.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.18%EV -5.24%E -1.42%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.85%EV -16.29%E -4.72%K -6.65%G +0.000%16.6%2026-10-18 17:54
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%EV -8.27%E -4.52%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -7.80%E -2.17%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -12.65%E -3.52%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-18 17:54
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -7.80%E -2.17%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -12.65%E -3.52%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-18 17:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -7.80%E -2.17%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -12.65%E -3.52%K -4.87%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-18 17:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.98%EV -6.77%E -3.64%K -7.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -11.64%E -3.37%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.62%EV -10.23%E -2.76%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-18 17:39
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -7.27%E -3.93%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -12.92%E -3.80%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -15.08%E -4.31%K -6.03%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-18 17:34
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.54%EV -7.77%E -4.22%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -14.20%E -4.24%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.81%EV -12.65%E -3.52%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-18 17:40
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -7.27%E -3.93%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -15.48%E -4.69%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -15.08%E -4.31%K -6.03%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-18 17:59
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -7.27%E -3.93%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -15.48%E -4.69%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -15.08%E -4.31%K -6.03%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-18 17:42
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -7.27%E -3.93%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -15.48%E -4.69%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -15.08%E -4.31%K -6.03%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-18 17:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.87%EV -7.27%E -3.93%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.83%EV -15.48%E -4.69%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.30%EV -15.08%E -4.31%K -6.03%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-18 17:42
Unibet (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 49.59%EV -15.29%E -9.05%K -22.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.40%EV -15.48%E -4.69%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.02%EV -18.72%E -5.59%K -7.97%G +0.000%19.3%2026-10-18 17:39
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.15%EV -9.77%E -5.43%K -12.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.09%EV -18.04%E -5.64%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.76%EV -15.08%E -4.31%K -6.03%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-18 17:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.53%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.73%1.1%2026-10-18 17:54
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.63%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.68%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.68%1.3%2026-10-18 17:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.94I 51.55%NM 50.76%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.62%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.62%1.5%2026-10-18 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.93I 51.81%NM 50.89%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.55%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.55%1.8%2026-10-18 17:55
Smarkets◎1.93I 51.81%NM 50.73%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.48%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.79%2.1%2026-10-18 17:54