The School of Odds
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Al-Fateh v Al-Ahli

Kickoff: 2026-10-09 14:55 UTC

Final: Al-Fateh 0–4 Al-Ahli

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Fateh (Local)

Prediction 15.81%6.33fair odd
EV +2.74%
Edge +0.421%
Kelly +0.498%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.88%15.77%15.76%17.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.956.006.5020.00%16.80%16.67%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Ahli (Visit)

Prediction 65.24%1.53fair odd
EV -8.01%
Edge -5.68%
Kelly -19.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.52%65.27%65.06%67.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.361.361.4175.19%73.29%73.53%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.95%5.28fair odd
EV -1.25%
Edge -0.240%
Kelly -0.297%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.98%18.96%19.18%19.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.704.705.2123.09%21.30%21.28%19.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Fateh (Local): 15.81%; Al-Ahli (Visit): 65.24%; Draw: 18.95%. For Al-Fateh (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.33. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.74%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV +2.74%E +0.421%K +0.498%G +0.014%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -8.66%E -6.19%K -21.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.23%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-04 10:31
Unibet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV +2.74%E +0.421%K +0.498%G +0.014%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -11.27%E -8.29%K -31.31%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-02 16:24
Grosvenor🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV +2.74%E +0.421%K +0.498%G +0.014%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -11.27%E -8.29%K -31.31%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-02 16:25
Unibet (SE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV +2.74%E +0.421%K +0.498%G +0.014%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -11.27%E -8.29%K -31.31%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-02 16:24
Unibet (NL)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV +2.74%E +0.421%K +0.498%G +0.014%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -11.27%E -8.29%K -31.31%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-02 16:24
ATG (SE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV +2.74%E +0.421%K +0.498%G +0.014%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -11.27%E -8.29%K -31.31%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-02 16:25
Svenska Spel🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV +2.74%E +0.421%K +0.498%G +0.014%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -11.27%E -8.29%K -31.31%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-02 16:25
LiveScore Bet🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 13.94%EV +1.16%E +0.181%K +0.214%G +0.002%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.08%EV -13.23%E -9.95%K -40.09%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.98%EV -10.92%E -2.32%K -2.95%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-02 16:25
Virgin Bet🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 13.94%EV +1.16%E +0.181%K +0.214%G +0.002%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.08%EV -13.23%E -9.95%K -40.09%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.98%EV -10.92%E -2.32%K -2.95%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-02 16:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 13.88%EV +1.16%E +0.181%K +0.214%G +0.002%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.80%EV -13.23%E -9.95%K -40.09%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.31%EV -12.81%E -2.79%K -3.56%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-02 16:24
SportsBet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.77%EV -1.21%E -0.194%K -0.231%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 66.40%EV -9.32%E -6.70%K -23.89%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.84%EV -7.13%E -1.45%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-02 16:55
1xBet🎯6.19I 16.16%NM 15.13%EV -2.16%E -0.349%K -0.417%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.89%EV -8.66%E -6.19%K -21.66%G +0.000%5.21I 19.19%NM 17.98%EV -1.25%E -0.240%K -0.297%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-03 01:00
Unibet (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -5.17%E -0.861%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.44%EV -8.66%E -6.19%K -21.66%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-02 16:25
betfred_uk🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -5.17%E -0.861%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.03%EV -8.66%E -6.19%K -21.66%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -12.81%E -2.79%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-02 19:00
Paddy Power🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -5.17%E -0.861%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.09%EV -11.27%E -8.29%K -31.31%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.92%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-02 19:30
Pinnacle🎯5.85I 17.09%NM 15.85%EV -7.54%E -1.29%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.78%EV -8.01%E -5.68%K -19.54%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 18.37%EV -4.28%E -0.848%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-02 18:50
Tipico (DE)🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 16.10%EV -9.91%E -1.74%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.55%EV -8.66%E -6.19%K -21.66%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.35%EV -5.23%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-03 22:20
Unibet (FR)🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 15.29%EV -9.91%E -1.74%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 65.55%EV -13.23%E -9.95%K -40.09%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.16%EV -13.76%E -3.02%K -3.88%G +0.000%14.7%2026-10-05 15:00
Betclic (FR)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 15.68%EV -11.49%E -2.05%K -2.50%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 65.03%EV -11.93%E -8.83%K -34.07%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.29%EV -13.76%E -3.02%K -3.88%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-02 17:10
888sport🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 15.96%EV -13.07%E -2.38%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 64.54%EV -11.27%E -8.29%K -31.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.50%EV -14.71%E -3.27%K -4.20%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-02 17:35
888sport (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 15.96%EV -13.07%E -2.38%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 64.54%EV -11.27%E -8.29%K -31.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.50%EV -14.71%E -3.27%K -4.20%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-02 17:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 15.96%EV -13.07%E -2.38%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 64.54%EV -11.27%E -8.29%K -31.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.50%EV -14.71%E -3.27%K -4.20%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-02 17:35
William Hill🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 15.96%EV -13.07%E -2.38%K -2.90%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 64.54%EV -11.27%E -8.29%K -31.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.50%EV -14.71%E -3.27%K -4.20%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-02 20:15
Winamax (DE)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.34%EV -14.65%E -2.71%K -3.33%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 64.88%EV -11.27%E -8.29%K -31.31%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.77%EV -10.92%E -2.32%K -2.95%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-02 16:25
Sky Bet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 16.47%EV -17.02%E -3.24%K -4.00%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 63.57%EV -11.27%E -8.29%K -31.31%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.97%EV -17.93%E -4.14%K -5.38%G +0.000%15.7%2026-10-03 10:20
Winamax (FR)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 16.68%EV -19.39%E -3.80%K -4.73%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 63.98%EV -13.23%E -9.95%K -40.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.34%EV -16.60%E -3.77%K -4.88%G +0.000%17.5%2026-10-02 16:25
BoyleSports🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.28%EV -20.97%E -4.19%K -5.24%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 63.52%EV -11.27%E -8.29%K -31.31%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.20%EV -14.71%E -3.27%K -4.20%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-03 16:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎6.25I 16.00%NM 15.39%1.45I 68.97%NM 66.33%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.28%4.0%2026-10-05 13:00
Smarkets◎5.40I 18.52%NM 15.91%1.34I 74.63%NM 64.11%4.30I 23.26%NM 19.98%16.4%2026-10-02 18:55