Language:English
Al-Faisaly KSA FC v Neom
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Al-Faisaly KSA FC (Local)
Prediction 26.43%3.78fair odd
EV +1.77%
Edge +0.460%
Kelly +0.622%
Growth +0.011%
assuming max odds 3.85
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.54%26.33%26.30%27.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.603.653.8530.30%27.78%27.40%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Neom (Visit)
Prediction 48.10%2.08fair odd
EV -8.14%
Edge -4.26%
Kelly -8.94%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.91
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.51%48.37%48.19%50.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.821.831.9158.14%55.00%54.64%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.47%3.93fair odd
EV -0.667%
Edge -0.171%
Kelly -0.230%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.37%25.30%25.51%25.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.533.553.9029.41%28.35%28.17%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Faisaly KSA FC (Local): 26.43%; Neom (Visit): 48.10%; Draw: 25.47%. For Al-Faisaly KSA FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.78. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.77%.
Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV +1.77%E +0.460%K +0.622%G +0.011% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.92%EV -14.39%E -8.08%K -18.45%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.53%EV -9.58%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-21 17:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV +1.77%E +0.460%K +0.622%G +0.011% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.92%EV -14.39%E -8.08%K -18.45%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.53%EV -9.58%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-21 17:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV +1.77%E +0.460%K +0.622%G +0.011% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.92%EV -14.39%E -8.08%K -18.45%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.53%EV -9.58%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-21 17:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV +1.77%E +0.460%K +0.622%G +0.011% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.92%EV -14.39%E -8.08%K -18.45%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.53%EV -9.58%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-21 17:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV +1.77%E +0.460%K +0.622%G +0.011% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.92%EV -14.39%E -8.08%K -18.45%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.53%EV -9.58%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-21 17:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV +1.77%E +0.460%K +0.622%G +0.011% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.92%EV -14.39%E -8.08%K -18.45%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.53%EV -9.58%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-21 17:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -0.871%E -0.232%K -0.317%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 50.29%EV -9.10%E -4.81%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.37%EV -0.667%E -0.171%K -0.230%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-21 17:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.57%EV -0.871%E -0.232%K -0.317%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 50.80%EV -16.31%E -9.38%K -22.05%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.62%EV -12.13%E -3.52%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-21 17:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -2.19%E -0.593%K -0.812%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -11.02%E -5.96%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -8.31%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-21 17:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.59%EV -2.19%E -0.593%K -0.812%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 50.74%EV -17.28%E -10.04%K -23.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.67%EV -13.40%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-08-21 17:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.59%EV -2.19%E -0.593%K -0.812%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 50.74%EV -17.28%E -10.04%K -23.99%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.67%EV -13.40%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-08-21 17:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -4.84%E -1.34%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%EV -11.99%E -6.55%K -14.44%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -8.31%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-21 17:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -4.84%E -1.34%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.59%EV -11.99%E -6.55%K -14.44%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -8.31%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-21 17:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -7.48%E -2.14%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -8.14%E -4.26%K -8.94%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.31%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-21 17:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -7.48%E -2.14%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.30%EV -13.43%E -7.46%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -10.86%E -3.10%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-21 17:54 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.78%EV -10.12%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 47.92%EV -8.62%E -4.54%K -9.58%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -8.31%E -2.31%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-21 18:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -10.12%E -2.98%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -11.02%E -5.96%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -10.86%E -3.10%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-21 18:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.14%EV -12.77%E -3.87%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 47.64%EV -9.58%E -5.10%K -10.89%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.23%EV -9.58%E -2.70%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-21 18:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -12.77%E -3.87%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -11.02%E -5.96%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -13.40%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-21 17:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -12.77%E -3.87%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -11.02%E -5.96%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -13.40%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-21 17:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -12.77%E -3.87%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -11.02%E -5.96%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -13.40%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-21 17:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -12.77%E -3.87%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 47.51%EV -11.02%E -5.96%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.85%EV -13.40%E -3.94%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-08-21 17:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.15% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.70% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15% | 0.7% | 2026-08-21 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.11% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.12% | 0.8% | 2026-08-21 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.64% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.36% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.99% | 1.3% | 2026-08-21 17:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.93% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 49.04% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.03% | 4.0% | 2026-08-21 18:00 |