The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Al-Faisaly KSA FC v Al-Nassr

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 13:30 UTC

Final: Al-Faisaly KSA FC 1–3 Al-Nassr

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Faisaly KSA FC (Local)

Prediction 9.32%10.73fair odd
EV +9.08%
Edge +0.776%
Kelly +0.848%
Growth +0.077%

assuming max odds 11.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.24%9.34%9.36%10.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.509.869.7511.7011.76%10.14%10.26%8.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Nassr (Visit)

Prediction 76.65%1.30fair odd
EV -4.19%
Edge -3.35%
Kelly -16.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.88%76.75%76.44%79.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.191.191.2589.29%83.89%84.03%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.03%7.13fair odd
EV +8.88%
Edge +1.14%
Kelly +1.31%
Growth +0.117%

assuming max odds 7.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.14%13.91%14.19%15.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.346.257.7618.18%15.77%16.00%12.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Faisaly KSA FC (Local): 9.32%; Al-Nassr (Visit): 76.65%; Draw: 14.03%. For Al-Faisaly KSA FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.73. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯10.04I 9.96%NM 9.38%EV -6.40%E -0.637%K -0.708%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.48%EV -8.02%E -6.69%K -40.12%G +0.000%7.76I 12.89%NM 12.14%EV +8.88%E +1.14%K +1.31%G +0.117%6.2%2026-10-23 13:16
1xBet🎯11.70I 8.55%NM 8.24%EV +9.08%E +0.776%K +0.848%G +0.077%1.22I 81.97%NM 79.02%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.50%G +0.000%7.57I 13.21%NM 12.74%EV +6.21%E +0.820%K +0.945%G +0.059%3.7%2026-10-23 13:25
Coral🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.59%EV -6.77%E -0.677%K -0.752%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.71%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.77%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.70%EV -1.79%E -0.255%K -0.298%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-23 13:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV +2.55%E +0.232%K +0.255%G +0.007%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.38%EV -9.56%E -8.10%K -53.09%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.21%EV -1.79%E -0.255%K -0.298%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-23 12:55
SportsBet🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.35%EV +2.55%E +0.232%K +0.255%G +0.007%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.52%EV -10.32%E -8.82%K -60.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -1.79%E -0.255%K -0.298%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-23 13:15
Tipico (DE)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.30%EV +2.55%E +0.232%K +0.255%G +0.007%1.16I 86.21%NM 78.67%EV -11.09%E -9.56%K -69.31%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -1.79%E -0.255%K -0.298%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-23 12:56
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -11.43%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.54%EV -4.19%E -3.35%K -16.77%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-23 13:25
Unibet (UK)🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +2.55%E +0.232%K +0.255%G +0.007%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.50%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-23 13:25
Winamax (DE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -16.10%E -1.79%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 75.88%EV -8.02%E -6.69%K -40.12%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-23 13:25
William Hill🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -11.43%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 76.58%EV -9.56%E -8.10%K -53.09%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-23 13:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -11.43%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 76.58%EV -9.56%E -8.10%K -53.09%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-23 13:25
888sport🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -11.43%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 76.58%EV -9.56%E -8.10%K -53.09%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-23 13:25
888sport (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -11.43%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 76.58%EV -9.56%E -8.10%K -53.09%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-23 13:25
Paddy Power🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 8.84%EV -6.77%E -0.677%K -0.752%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 77.56%EV -12.62%E -11.07%K -90.16%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.60%EV -8.80%E -1.35%K -1.60%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-23 13:25
Sky Bet🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -11.43%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 76.32%EV -10.32%E -8.82%K -60.73%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.29%EV -12.31%E -1.97%K -2.34%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-23 13:11
Winamax (FR)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.46%EV -20.76%E -2.44%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 75.32%EV -9.56%E -8.10%K -53.09%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.22%EV -12.31%E -1.97%K -2.34%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-23 13:25
Unibet🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -6.77%E -0.677%K -0.752%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.50%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.82%E -2.64%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-23 13:01
Unibet (SE)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -6.77%E -0.677%K -0.752%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.50%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.82%E -2.64%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-23 13:01
Grosvenor🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -6.77%E -0.677%K -0.752%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.50%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.82%E -2.64%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-23 13:01
Unibet (NL)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -6.77%E -0.677%K -0.752%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.50%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.82%E -2.64%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-23 13:01
ATG (SE)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -6.77%E -0.677%K -0.752%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.50%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.82%E -2.64%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-23 13:01
Svenska Spel🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.21%EV -6.77%E -0.677%K -0.752%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.49%E -5.32%K -29.50%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -15.82%E -2.64%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-23 13:01
betfred_uk🎯11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV +2.55%E +0.232%K +0.255%G +0.007%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -8.02%E -6.69%K -40.12%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -15.82%E -2.64%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-23 13:11
BoyleSports🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.00%EV -16.10%E -1.79%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 75.00%EV -8.02%E -6.69%K -40.12%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.00%EV -15.82%E -2.64%K -3.16%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-23 13:25
Betclic (FR)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.22%EV -11.43%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 76.18%EV -11.86%E -10.31%K -79.04%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.60%EV -15.82%E -2.64%K -3.16%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-23 13:25
Virgin Bet🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -11.43%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 75.06%EV -8.79%E -7.39%K -46.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.53%EV -19.32%E -3.36%K -4.07%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-23 13:01
LiveScore Bet🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -11.43%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 75.06%EV -8.79%E -7.39%K -46.26%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.53%EV -19.32%E -3.36%K -4.07%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-23 13:01
LeoVegas (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.34%EV -11.43%E -1.20%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 75.22%EV -9.56%E -8.10%K -53.09%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.44%EV -19.32%E -3.36%K -4.07%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-23 13:01
PMU (FR)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.58%EV -16.10%E -1.79%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 75.01%EV -11.86%E -10.31%K -79.04%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.40%EV -21.43%E -3.83%K -4.66%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-23 13:01
Unibet (FR)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 9.87%EV -20.76%E -2.44%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 74.88%EV -14.16%E -12.64%K -117.96%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.25%EV -22.83%E -4.15%K -5.07%G +0.000%19.2%2026-10-23 13:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎14.00I 7.14%NM 7.12%1.24I 80.65%NM 80.41%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.46%0.3%2026-10-23 13:25
Smarkets◎13.50I 7.41%NM 7.37%1.24I 80.65%NM 80.20%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.43%0.6%2026-10-23 13:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎13.50I 7.41%NM 7.37%1.24I 80.65%NM 80.20%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.43%0.6%2026-10-23 13:16
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎13.50I 7.41%NM 7.37%1.24I 80.65%NM 80.20%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.43%0.6%2026-10-23 13:25
Kalshi◎12.50I 8.00%NM 7.85%1.22I 81.97%NM 80.38%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.77%2.0%2026-10-23 13:01