The School of Odds
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Al-Faisaly KSA FC v Al-Kholood

Kickoff: 2026-10-15 13:40 UTC

Final: Al-Faisaly KSA FC 3–2 Al-Kholood

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Faisaly KSA FC (Local)

Prediction 29.90%3.34fair odd
EV -1.32%
Edge -0.401%
Kelly -0.576%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.00%29.69%29.99%30.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.073.103.3034.72%32.57%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Kholood (Visit)

Prediction 42.06%2.38fair odd
EV -5.36%
Edge -2.38%
Kelly -4.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.94%42.15%41.95%44.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.142.152.2551.28%46.79%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.04%3.57fair odd
EV -3.83%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.51%28.16%28.07%29.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.183.203.4333.33%31.45%31.25%29.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Faisaly KSA FC (Local): 29.90%; Al-Kholood (Visit): 42.06%; Draw: 28.04%. For Al-Faisaly KSA FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.34. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.30, with an expected value of -1.32%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -1.32%E -0.401%K -0.576%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -11.67%E -5.56%K -10.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.47%E -2.26%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-15 13:25
Pinnacle🎯3.26I 30.67%NM 29.19%EV -2.52%E -0.773%K -1.12%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.06%EV -7.05%E -3.19%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.75%EV -3.83%E -1.12%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-15 13:35
Coral🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -2.82%E -0.868%K -1.25%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -7.47%E -3.39%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -4.67%E -1.37%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-15 13:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -4.31%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -7.47%E -3.39%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.47%E -2.26%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-15 13:35
1xBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -5.81%E -1.84%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 42.64%EV -7.89%E -3.60%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 27.71%EV -5.51%E -1.64%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-15 13:25
SportsBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.03%EV -5.81%E -1.84%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.94%EV -8.31%E -3.81%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.03%EV -11.68%E -3.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-15 13:25
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -7.30%E -2.36%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -5.36%E -2.38%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.47%E -2.26%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-15 13:25
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -7.30%E -2.36%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.62%EV -10.83%E -5.11%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -10.28%E -3.21%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-15 13:20
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -7.30%E -2.36%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.62%EV -10.83%E -5.11%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -10.28%E -3.21%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-15 13:20
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -7.30%E -2.36%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.62%EV -10.83%E -5.11%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -10.28%E -3.21%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-15 13:20
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -7.30%E -2.36%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.62%EV -10.83%E -5.11%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -10.28%E -3.21%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-15 13:20
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -7.30%E -2.36%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.62%EV -10.83%E -5.11%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -10.28%E -3.21%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-15 13:20
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -7.30%E -2.36%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.62%EV -10.83%E -5.11%K -9.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -10.28%E -3.21%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-15 13:20
Paddy Power🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -7.30%E -2.36%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -9.57%E -4.45%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -13.08%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-15 13:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -7.30%E -2.36%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -9.57%E -4.45%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -13.08%E -4.22%K -6.23%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-15 13:25
Virgin Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.12%EV -8.80%E -2.89%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.69%EV -12.51%E -6.02%K -11.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.19%EV -11.68%E -3.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-15 13:20
LiveScore Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.12%EV -8.80%E -2.89%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.69%EV -12.51%E -6.02%K -11.59%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.19%EV -11.68%E -3.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-15 13:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.06%EV -8.80%E -2.89%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 42.81%EV -12.94%E -6.25%K -12.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.13%EV -11.68%E -3.71%K -5.43%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-15 13:20
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -10.29%E -3.43%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -5.36%E -2.38%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -8.88%E -2.73%K -3.94%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-15 13:15
Winamax (DE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -10.29%E -3.43%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -9.57%E -4.45%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -7.47%E -2.26%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-15 13:25
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -10.29%E -3.43%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -9.57%E -4.45%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -15.89%E -5.30%K -7.94%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-15 13:28
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -10.29%E -3.43%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -9.57%E -4.45%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -15.89%E -5.30%K -7.94%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-15 13:25
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -10.29%E -3.43%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -9.57%E -4.45%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -15.89%E -5.30%K -7.94%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-15 13:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -10.29%E -3.43%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -9.57%E -4.45%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -15.89%E -5.30%K -7.94%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-15 13:20
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -10.29%E -3.43%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -9.57%E -4.45%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -15.89%E -5.30%K -7.94%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-15 13:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.49%EV -11.79%E -4.00%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.83%EV -9.57%E -4.45%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.68%EV -8.88%E -2.73%K -3.94%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-15 13:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.05%EV -11.79%E -4.00%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.85%EV -15.88%E -7.94%K -15.88%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.10%EV -14.48%E -4.75%K -7.07%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-15 13:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 29.09%EV -13.28%E -4.58%K -6.99%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 43.26%EV -17.98%E -9.22%K -18.93%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.66%EV -14.48%E -4.75%K -7.07%G +0.000%18.6%2026-10-15 13:24
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.87%EV -13.88%E -4.82%K -7.38%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.35%EV -9.57%E -4.45%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.78%EV -10.28%E -3.21%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-15 13:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 28.98%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.47%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.56%1.5%2026-10-15 13:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 28.98%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.47%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.56%1.5%2026-10-15 13:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 28.98%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.47%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.56%1.5%2026-10-15 13:25
Kalshi◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.41%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.18%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.41%2.0%2026-10-15 13:30
Smarkets◎3.40I 29.41%NM 28.75%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.50%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.75%2.3%2026-10-15 13:25