The School of Odds
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Al-Faisaly KSA FC v Al-Fateh

Kickoff: 2026-08-26 16:02 UTC

Final: Al-Faisaly KSA FC 1–1 Al-Fateh

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Faisaly KSA FC (Local)

Prediction 33.63%2.97fair odd
EV +2.92%
Edge +0.954%
Kelly +1.42%
Growth +0.041%

assuming max odds 3.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.75%33.54%33.64%34.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.682.653.0640.00%37.28%37.74%32.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Fateh (Visit)

Prediction 40.38%2.48fair odd
EV -3.90%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -2.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.92%40.30%40.36%41.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.292.302.3846.51%43.75%43.48%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.99%3.85fair odd
EV -3.59%
Edge -0.967%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.26%26.15%25.99%27.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.373.403.7132.26%29.68%29.41%26.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Faisaly KSA FC (Local): 33.63%; Al-Fateh (Visit): 40.38%; Draw: 25.99%. For Al-Faisaly KSA FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.97. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.06, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.92%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.06I 32.68%NM 31.75%EV +2.92%E +0.954%K +1.42%G +0.041%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.70%EV -5.92%E -2.54%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.55%EV -4.89%E -1.34%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-26 15:59
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.84%EV -3.47%E -1.21%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.98%EV -7.13%E -3.10%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -6.45%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-26 15:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.60%EV -3.47%E -1.21%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.67%EV -7.13%E -3.10%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -9.05%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-26 15:59
Pinnacle🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 33.65%EV -4.82%E -1.70%K -2.63%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.69%EV -5.51%E -2.36%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.66%EV -3.59%E -0.967%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-26 15:49
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.51%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -7.13%E -3.10%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.05%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-26 15:39
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.51%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -7.13%E -3.10%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.05%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-26 15:34
Betclic (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.06%EV -7.51%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -11.17%E -5.08%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -7.75%E -2.18%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-26 15:39
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -7.51%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.20%EV -11.17%E -5.08%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.64%EV -16.84%E -5.26%K -7.66%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-26 15:59
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -7.51%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.20%EV -11.17%E -5.08%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.64%EV -16.84%E -5.26%K -7.66%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-26 15:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -7.51%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.20%EV -11.17%E -5.08%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.64%EV -16.84%E -5.26%K -7.66%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-26 16:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -7.51%E -2.73%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.20%EV -11.17%E -5.08%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.64%EV -16.84%E -5.26%K -7.66%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-26 15:59
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.66%EV -10.87%E -4.10%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.09%EV -5.11%E -2.17%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -9.05%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-26 15:39
SportsBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.37%EV -10.87%E -4.10%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -7.13%E -3.10%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -9.05%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-26 15:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.32%EV -10.87%E -4.10%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.42%EV -9.15%E -4.07%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -6.45%E -1.79%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-26 15:39
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.20%EV -10.87%E -4.10%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.92%EV -13.18%E -6.13%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.88%EV -11.64%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-26 15:39
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.31%EV -11.54%E -4.39%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.92%EV -3.90%E -1.64%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -15.54%E -4.78%K -6.91%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-26 15:59
Grosvenor🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.31%EV -11.54%E -4.39%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.92%EV -3.90%E -1.64%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -15.54%E -4.78%K -6.91%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-26 15:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.31%EV -11.54%E -4.39%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.92%EV -3.90%E -1.64%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -15.54%E -4.78%K -6.91%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-26 15:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.31%EV -11.54%E -4.39%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.92%EV -3.90%E -1.64%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -15.54%E -4.78%K -6.91%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-26 15:59
ATG (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.31%EV -11.54%E -4.39%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.92%EV -3.90%E -1.64%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -15.54%E -4.78%K -6.91%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-26 16:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.31%EV -11.54%E -4.39%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.92%EV -3.90%E -1.64%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -15.54%E -4.78%K -6.91%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-26 16:00
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.63%EV -11.88%E -4.53%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.13%E -3.10%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -9.05%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-26 15:35
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -12.55%E -4.83%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -9.15%E -4.07%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -11.64%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-26 15:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.19%EV -12.55%E -4.83%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.41%EV -11.17%E -5.08%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.40%EV -9.05%E -2.58%K -3.62%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-26 15:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.15%EV -12.55%E -4.83%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.11%EV -5.92%E -2.54%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.75%EV -16.84%E -5.26%K -7.66%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-26 16:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.27%EV -14.23%E -5.58%K -9.18%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.99%EV -7.13%E -3.10%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.74%EV -18.14%E -5.76%K -8.44%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-26 15:59
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.27%EV -14.23%E -5.58%K -9.18%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.99%EV -7.13%E -3.10%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.74%EV -18.14%E -5.76%K -8.44%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-26 15:59
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.51%EV -15.92%E -6.37%K -10.61%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.12%EV -13.18%E -6.13%K -11.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.37%EV -11.64%E -3.42%K -4.85%G +0.000%15.9%2026-08-26 16:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.28%EV -15.92%E -6.37%K -10.61%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.08%EV -9.15%E -4.07%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.64%EV -19.44%E -6.27%K -9.26%G +0.000%16.7%2026-08-26 15:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.26%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.96%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.78%0.9%2026-08-26 16:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.15%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.15%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.70%1.2%2026-08-26 15:59
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.98I 33.56%NM 33.15%2.46I 40.65%NM 40.15%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.70%1.2%2026-08-26 16:00
Smarkets◎2.98I 33.56%NM 32.93%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.55%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.52%1.9%2026-08-26 15:59
Kalshi◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.34%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.17%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%2.0%2026-08-26 15:54