The School of Odds
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Al-Ettifaq v Al-Khaleej

Kickoff: 2026-10-10 14:55 UTC

Final: Al-Ettifaq 1–1 Al-Khaleej

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Ettifaq (Local)

Prediction 45.05%2.22fair odd
EV -4.49%
Edge -2.12%
Kelly -4.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.08%45.08%44.88%47.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.832.042.052.1254.64%48.99%48.78%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Khaleej (Visit)

Prediction 29.04%3.44fair odd
EV +1.91%
Edge +0.545%
Kelly +0.762%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 3.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.11%28.88%29.38%31.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.063.003.5135.09%32.71%33.33%28.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.91%3.86fair odd
EV -2.31%
Edge -0.611%
Kelly -0.832%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.74%26.04%25.73%27.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.473.453.7730.30%28.79%28.99%26.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Ettifaq (Local): 45.05%; Al-Khaleej (Visit): 29.04%; Draw: 25.91%. For Al-Khaleej (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.44. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.51, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.91%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.12%EV -8.10%E -3.97%K -7.78%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.39%EV +1.91%E +0.545%K +0.762%G +0.015%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.50%EV -2.31%E -0.611%K -0.832%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-10 14:50
Pinnacle🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.86%EV -4.49%E -2.12%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.49%EV +0.462%E +0.133%K +0.188%G +0.001%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.65%EV -10.86%E -3.16%K -4.45%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 14:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -12.15%E -6.23%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -1.28%E -0.377%K -0.534%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -6.71%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-10 14:42
SportsBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.37%EV -10.80%E -5.45%K -11.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -2.73%E -0.816%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.30%E -2.66%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-10 14:45
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -12.15%E -6.23%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -4.18%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -9.30%E -2.66%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-10 14:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -12.15%E -6.23%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -4.18%E -1.27%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -9.30%E -2.66%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-10 14:45
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -5.39%E -2.57%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -7.09%E -2.21%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -4.12%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-10 14:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -5.39%E -2.57%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -9.99%E -3.22%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -4.12%E -1.11%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-10 14:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.47%EV -6.29%E -3.03%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.84%EV -9.99%E -3.22%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -6.71%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-10 14:21
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -7.65%E -3.73%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -9.99%E -3.22%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -6.71%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-10 14:45
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.77%EV -9.90%E -4.95%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -9.99%E -3.22%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -11.89%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-10 14:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 45.89%EV -13.95%E -7.30%K -15.33%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 28.93%EV -12.02%E -3.97%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.19%EV -9.82%E -2.82%K -3.96%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-10 14:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.15%EV -9.90%E -4.95%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.10%EV -12.89%E -4.30%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.74%EV -5.41%E -1.48%K -2.04%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-10 14:25
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -7.65%E -3.73%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -12.89%E -4.30%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -14.48%E -4.39%K -6.30%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-10 14:50
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -7.65%E -3.73%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -12.89%E -4.30%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -14.48%E -4.39%K -6.30%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-10 14:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -7.65%E -3.73%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -12.89%E -4.30%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -14.48%E -4.39%K -6.30%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-10 14:50
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -7.65%E -3.73%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -12.89%E -4.30%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -14.48%E -4.39%K -6.30%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-10 14:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.62%EV -9.90%E -4.95%K -9.90%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.25%EV -14.35%E -4.86%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.14%EV -8.01%E -2.26%K -3.14%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-10 14:20
Unibet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.63%EV -4.49%E -2.12%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -15.80%E -5.45%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.20%EV -10.60%E -3.07%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-10 14:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.63%EV -4.49%E -2.12%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -15.80%E -5.45%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.20%EV -10.60%E -3.07%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-10 14:50
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.63%EV -4.49%E -2.12%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -15.80%E -5.45%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.20%EV -10.60%E -3.07%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-10 14:50
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.63%EV -4.49%E -2.12%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -15.80%E -5.45%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.20%EV -10.60%E -3.07%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-10 14:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.63%EV -4.49%E -2.12%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -15.80%E -5.45%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.20%EV -10.60%E -3.07%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-10 14:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.63%EV -4.49%E -2.12%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -15.80%E -5.45%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.20%EV -10.60%E -3.07%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-10 14:50
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 45.04%EV -13.95%E -7.30%K -15.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.66%EV -15.80%E -5.45%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.30%EV -11.89%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-10 14:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 45.93%EV -17.56%E -9.59%K -21.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 28.98%EV -15.80%E -5.45%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.09%EV -13.19%E -3.94%K -5.61%G +0.000%19.0%2026-10-10 14:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.08%EV -4.49%E -2.12%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.30%EV -17.25%E -6.05%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -13.19%E -3.94%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-10 14:01
LiveScore Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.08%EV -4.49%E -2.12%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.30%EV -17.25%E -6.05%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -13.19%E -3.94%K -5.61%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-10 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 42.82%EV -6.74%E -3.26%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.10%EV -17.25%E -6.05%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -11.89%E -3.50%K -4.96%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-10 14:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.40%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.71%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.89%1.7%2026-10-10 14:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.40%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.71%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.89%1.7%2026-10-10 14:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.40%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.71%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.89%1.7%2026-10-10 14:50
Kalshi◎2.13I 46.95%NM 46.07%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.44%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.49%1.9%2026-10-10 14:45
Smarkets◎2.08I 48.08%NM 46.69%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.75%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.56%3.0%2026-10-10 14:50