The School of Odds
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Al-Ettifaq v Al-Ittihad

Kickoff: 2026-10-20 18:00 UTC

Final: Al-Ettifaq 1–4 Al-Ittihad

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Ettifaq (Local)

Prediction 24.21%4.13fair odd
EV +4.09%
Edge +0.952%
Kelly +1.24%
Growth +0.051%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.32%24.11%24.08%27.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.623.604.3031.75%27.60%27.78%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Ittihad (Visit)

Prediction 51.73%1.93fair odd
EV -2.23%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -2.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.03%51.86%51.75%53.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.801.801.8961.35%55.71%55.56%52.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.06%4.16fair odd
EV -0.376%
Edge -0.091%
Kelly -0.120%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.90%24.03%24.17%25.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.683.654.1429.41%27.19%27.40%24.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Ettifaq (Local): 24.21%; Al-Ittihad (Visit): 51.73%; Draw: 24.06%. For Al-Ettifaq (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.13. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.09%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.32%EV +4.09%E +0.952%K +1.24%G +0.051%1.84I 54.35%NM 52.16%EV -4.82%E -2.62%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.52%EV -9.52%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-20 17:55
Coral🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -3.17%E -0.793%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.57%EV -5.34%E -2.92%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-20 17:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -3.17%E -0.793%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.57%EV -5.34%E -2.92%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-20 17:35
Tipico (DE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -3.17%E -0.793%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -12.06%E -7.09%K -17.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -6.15%E -1.58%K -2.12%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-20 17:35
Pinnacle🎯3.93I 25.45%NM 24.13%EV -4.86%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.97%EV -7.41%E -4.14%K -9.37%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 22.90%EV -0.376%E -0.091%K -0.120%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-20 17:50
Unibet (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -5.59%E -1.43%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.96%EV -4.82%E -2.62%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -9.76%E -2.60%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-20 17:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -5.59%E -1.43%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -6.89%E -3.83%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -8.56%E -2.25%K -3.06%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-20 17:33
SportsBet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -5.59%E -1.43%K -1.93%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.07%EV -8.96%E -5.09%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -9.76%E -2.60%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-20 17:56
Paddy Power🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -8.01%E -2.11%K -2.86%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.01%EV -10.51%E -6.07%K -14.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.32%EV -10.96%E -2.96%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-20 17:55
betfred_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -9.22%E -2.46%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -6.89%E -3.83%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -9.76%E -2.60%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-20 17:56
Betclic (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 23.68%EV -10.43%E -2.82%K -3.86%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 51.85%EV -12.58%E -7.44%K -18.23%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.47%EV -13.85%E -3.87%K -5.37%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-20 17:35
Winamax (DE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -11.64%E -3.19%K -4.39%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.68%EV -6.89%E -3.83%K -8.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -9.76%E -2.60%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-20 17:35
Winamax (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -12.85%E -3.57%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 50.90%EV -8.96%E -5.09%K -11.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -10.96%E -2.96%K -4.06%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-20 17:35
Sky Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -12.85%E -3.57%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.70%EV -9.47%E -5.41%K -12.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -13.37%E -3.71%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-20 17:40
888sport🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -12.85%E -3.57%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.70%EV -9.47%E -5.41%K -12.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -13.37%E -3.71%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-20 17:40
William Hill🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -12.85%E -3.57%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.70%EV -9.47%E -5.41%K -12.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -13.37%E -3.71%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-20 17:40
888sport (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -12.85%E -3.57%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.70%EV -9.47%E -5.41%K -12.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -13.37%E -3.71%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-20 17:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -12.85%E -3.57%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.70%EV -9.47%E -5.41%K -12.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.65%EV -13.37%E -3.71%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-20 17:40
BoyleSports🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.52%EV -12.85%E -3.57%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.93%EV -12.06%E -7.09%K -17.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.54%EV -9.76%E -2.60%K -3.55%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-20 17:40
Unibet (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 23.94%EV -15.27%E -4.36%K -6.11%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 51.41%EV -15.68%E -9.62%K -24.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.65%EV -18.18%E -5.35%K -7.58%G +0.000%19.3%2026-10-20 17:35
Unibet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -18.91%E -5.64%K -8.04%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.03%EV -2.23%E -1.18%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.87%EV -12.17%E -3.33%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-20 17:25
Unibet (NL)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -18.91%E -5.64%K -8.04%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.16%EV -2.75%E -1.46%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.81%EV -12.17%E -3.33%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-20 17:25
Unibet (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -18.91%E -5.64%K -8.04%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.16%EV -2.75%E -1.46%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.81%EV -12.17%E -3.33%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-20 17:25
Grosvenor🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -18.91%E -5.64%K -8.04%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.16%EV -2.75%E -1.46%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.81%EV -12.17%E -3.33%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-20 17:25
Svenska Spel🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -18.91%E -5.64%K -8.04%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.16%EV -2.75%E -1.46%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.81%EV -12.17%E -3.33%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-20 17:25
ATG (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -18.91%E -5.64%K -8.04%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.16%EV -2.75%E -1.46%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.81%EV -12.17%E -3.33%K -4.59%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-20 17:25
Virgin Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -20.12%E -6.10%K -8.75%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.04%EV -4.30%E -2.33%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.03%EV -14.57%E -4.11%K -5.72%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-20 17:25
LiveScore Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -20.12%E -6.10%K -8.75%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.04%EV -4.30%E -2.33%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.03%EV -14.57%E -4.11%K -5.72%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-20 17:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -20.12%E -6.10%K -8.75%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.31%EV -5.34%E -2.92%K -6.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.90%EV -14.57%E -4.11%K -5.72%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-20 17:25
PMU (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 27.15%EV -23.75%E -7.54%K -11.04%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 48.05%EV -7.92%E -4.45%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.79%EV -16.98%E -4.92%K -6.93%G +0.000%16.9%2026-10-20 17:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.42%1.87I 53.48%NM 52.59%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.99%1.7%2026-10-20 17:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.35%1.86I 53.76%NM 52.73%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.92%2.0%2026-10-20 17:56
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.35%1.86I 53.76%NM 52.73%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.92%2.0%2026-10-20 17:56
Kalshi◎4.17I 23.98%NM 23.51%1.85I 54.05%NM 52.99%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.51%2.0%2026-10-20 17:35
Smarkets◎4.20I 23.81%NM 23.21%1.86I 53.76%NM 52.41%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.37%2.6%2026-10-20 17:56