The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Al-Ahli v Al-Nassr

Kickoff: 2026-10-15 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Ahli (Local)

Prediction 30.00%3.33fair odd
EV +0.509%
Edge +0.152%
Kelly +0.217%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.62%30.00%30.22%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.103.083.3535.71%32.30%32.52%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Nassr (Visit)

Prediction 45.02%2.22fair odd
EV -3.22%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -2.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.95%44.87%44.76%48.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.962.002.1556.82%50.91%50.00%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.98%4.00fair odd
EV -5.07%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -1.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.20%25.13%25.02%26.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.563.553.8030.30%28.06%28.17%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Ahli (Local): 30.00%; Al-Nassr (Visit): 45.02%; Draw: 24.98%. For Al-Ahli (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.33. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.509%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.70%EV +0.509%E +0.152%K +0.217%G +0.001%1.86I 53.76%NM 48.10%EV -16.27%E -8.75%K -18.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.20%EV -11.32%E -3.19%K -4.44%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-13 07:55
Unibet (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV +0.509%E +0.152%K +0.217%G +0.001%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.23%EV -16.72%E -9.04%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.13%EV -11.32%E -3.19%K -4.44%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-13 07:54
Unibet (NL)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV +0.509%E +0.152%K +0.217%G +0.001%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.23%EV -16.72%E -9.04%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.13%EV -11.32%E -3.19%K -4.44%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-13 07:55
Grosvenor🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV +0.509%E +0.152%K +0.217%G +0.001%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.23%EV -16.72%E -9.04%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.13%EV -11.32%E -3.19%K -4.44%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-13 07:54
ATG (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV +0.509%E +0.152%K +0.217%G +0.001%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.23%EV -16.72%E -9.04%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.13%EV -11.32%E -3.19%K -4.44%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-13 07:54
Svenska Spel🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV +0.509%E +0.152%K +0.217%G +0.001%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.23%EV -16.72%E -9.04%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.13%EV -11.32%E -3.19%K -4.44%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-13 07:55
LiveScore Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.69%EV -0.991%E -0.300%K -0.431%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.14%EV -17.62%E -9.63%K -21.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -12.56%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-13 07:54
Virgin Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.69%EV -0.991%E -0.300%K -0.431%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.14%EV -17.62%E -9.63%K -21.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -12.56%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-13 07:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -0.991%E -0.300%K -0.431%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 48.27%EV -18.07%E -9.93%K -22.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.10%EV -12.56%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-13 07:55
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -3.99%E -1.25%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -9.97%E -4.98%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -7.57%E -2.05%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-13 18:04
PMU (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 26.81%EV -5.49%E -1.74%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 47.98%EV -20.77%E -11.80%K -27.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.21%EV -16.31%E -4.87%K -6.94%G +0.000%18.4%2026-10-13 07:54
Coral🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.59%EV -6.99%E -2.26%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.11%EV -3.22%E -1.50%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -6.32%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-13 07:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -6.99%E -2.26%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -5.47%E -2.60%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -5.07%E -1.33%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-12 22:20
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.99%E -2.26%K -3.33%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.78%EV -6.37%E -3.06%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -7.57%E -2.05%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-13 13:49
1xBet🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.33%EV -7.59%E -2.46%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 44.69%EV -5.92%E -2.83%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.98%EV -6.57%E -1.76%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-10 20:10
Pinnacle🎯3.07I 32.57%NM 30.53%EV -7.89%E -2.57%K -3.81%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 44.42%EV -5.02%E -2.38%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.06%EV -6.57%E -1.76%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-12 16:04
Betclic (FR)🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 29.07%EV -9.39%E -3.11%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 46.20%EV -14.47%E -7.62%K -16.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.73%EV -11.32%E -3.19%K -4.44%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-13 18:03
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.99%E -3.33%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -3.22%E -1.50%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.57%E -2.05%K -2.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-13 07:29
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -9.99%E -3.33%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -7.72%E -3.76%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -6.32%E -1.69%K -2.30%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-12 19:09
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -9.99%E -3.33%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.69%EV -7.72%E -3.76%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -7.57%E -2.05%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-12 19:09
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.99%E -3.33%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.31%EV -9.97%E -4.98%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -7.57%E -2.05%K -2.80%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-12 19:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -11.49%E -3.90%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.08%EV -9.97%E -4.98%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.37%EV -7.57%E -2.05%K -2.80%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-12 19:14
Unibet (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 28.70%EV -11.49%E -3.90%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 46.77%EV -18.52%E -10.23%K -22.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.54%EV -13.81%E -4.00%K -5.64%G +0.000%18.1%2026-10-13 18:04
Sky Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.50%EV -12.99%E -4.48%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.23%EV -9.97%E -4.98%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.27%EV -12.56%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-12 19:36
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -12.99%E -4.48%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.95%EV -7.72%E -3.76%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -17.56%E -5.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-12 16:00
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -12.99%E -4.48%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.95%EV -7.72%E -3.76%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -17.56%E -5.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-12 16:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -12.99%E -4.48%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.95%EV -7.72%E -3.76%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -17.56%E -5.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-12 15:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -12.99%E -4.48%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.95%EV -7.72%E -3.76%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -17.56%E -5.32%K -7.64%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-12 15:59
Winamax (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 30.46%EV -14.49%E -5.09%K -7.83%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 44.74%EV -12.67%E -6.53%K -13.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.80%EV -12.56%E -3.59%K -5.03%G +0.000%15.2%2026-10-12 19:14
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.12%EV -15.99%E -5.71%K -8.88%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.68%EV -12.22%E -6.27%K -12.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.20%EV -10.07%E -2.80%K -3.87%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-13 17:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.33I 30.03%NM 29.72%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.58%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.70%1.0%2026-10-13 22:00
Smarkets◎3.00I 33.33%NM 27.05%1.98I 50.51%NM 40.99%2.54I 39.37%NM 31.95%23.2%2026-10-14 10:14
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.32I 75.76%NM 31.40%1.34I 74.63%NM 30.93%1.10I 90.91%NM 37.68%141.3%2026-10-14 12:42
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.32I 75.76%NM 31.40%1.34I 74.63%NM 30.93%1.10I 90.91%NM 37.68%141.3%2026-10-14 12:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 35.37%1.33I 75.19%NM 29.26%1.10I 90.91%NM 35.37%157.0%2026-10-14 12:44