The School of Odds
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Al-Ahli v Al-Khaleej

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 18:01 UTC

Final: Al-Ahli 4–1 Al-Khaleej

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Al-Ahli (Local)

Prediction 69.37%1.44fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -2.57%
Kelly -9.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.58%69.25%69.47%71.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.311.321.3980.65%76.05%75.76%71.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Khaleej (Visit)

Prediction 12.82%7.80fair odd
EV +8.95%
Edge +1.05%
Kelly +1.19%
Growth +0.107%

assuming max odds 8.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.10%12.90%12.69%14.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.257.247.508.5016.00%13.82%13.33%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.81%5.62fair odd
EV -2.06%
Edge -0.374%
Kelly -0.457%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.20%17.85%17.84%19.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.604.934.905.5021.74%20.28%20.41%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Al-Ahli (Local): 69.37%; Al-Khaleej (Visit): 12.82%; Draw: 17.81%. For Al-Khaleej (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.80. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.95%.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coral🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%EV -7.73%E -5.81%K -23.43%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.19%EV +8.95%E +1.05%K +1.19%G +0.107%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -2.06%E -0.374%K -0.457%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-22 07:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.93%EV -7.73%E -5.81%K -23.43%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV +8.95%E +1.05%K +1.19%G +0.107%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -6.51%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-22 07:49
Unibet (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.90%EV -7.73%E -5.81%K -23.43%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -3.87%E -0.516%K -0.595%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -6.51%E -1.24%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-22 10:29
Unibet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.19%EV -8.43%E -6.38%K -26.33%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%EV -3.87%E -0.516%K -0.595%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV -12.74%E -2.60%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-23 07:49
Grosvenor🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.19%EV -8.43%E -6.38%K -26.33%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%EV -3.87%E -0.516%K -0.595%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV -12.74%E -2.60%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-23 07:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.19%EV -8.43%E -6.38%K -26.33%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%EV -3.87%E -0.516%K -0.595%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV -12.74%E -2.60%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-23 07:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.19%EV -8.43%E -6.38%K -26.33%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%EV -3.87%E -0.516%K -0.595%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV -12.74%E -2.60%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-23 07:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.19%EV -8.43%E -6.38%K -26.33%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%EV -3.87%E -0.516%K -0.595%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV -12.74%E -2.60%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-23 07:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.19%EV -8.43%E -6.38%K -26.33%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.18%EV -3.87%E -0.516%K -0.595%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV -12.74%E -2.60%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-23 07:49
betfred_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.19%EV -7.73%E -5.81%K -23.43%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -3.87%E -0.516%K -0.595%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.72%EV -18.08%E -3.93%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-23 09:55
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.24%EV -9.81%E -7.55%K -32.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -3.87%E -0.516%K -0.595%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -14.52%E -3.03%K -3.82%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-22 11:10
William Hill🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.24%EV -9.81%E -7.55%K -32.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -3.87%E -0.516%K -0.595%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -14.52%E -3.03%K -3.82%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-22 11:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.24%EV -9.81%E -7.55%K -32.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -3.87%E -0.516%K -0.595%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -14.52%E -3.03%K -3.82%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-22 11:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.24%EV -9.81%E -7.55%K -32.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -3.87%E -0.516%K -0.595%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -14.52%E -3.03%K -3.82%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-22 11:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.27%EV -10.51%E -8.15%K -36.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -3.87%E -0.516%K -0.595%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.81%EV -15.41%E -3.24%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-23 07:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.27%EV -10.51%E -8.15%K -36.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -3.87%E -0.516%K -0.595%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.81%EV -15.41%E -3.24%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-23 07:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.27%EV -10.51%E -8.15%K -36.23%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -3.87%E -0.516%K -0.595%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.81%EV -15.41%E -3.24%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-23 07:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.05%EV -11.20%E -8.75%K -40.00%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.37%EV -7.07%E -0.975%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.58%EV -9.18%E -1.80%K -2.24%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-22 10:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.13%EV -9.81%E -7.55%K -32.71%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.66%EV -7.71%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.20%EV -5.62%E -1.06%K -1.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-23 15:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.20%EV -5.65%E -4.16%K -15.70%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -10.28%E -1.47%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -10.96%E -2.19%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-23 13:04
BoyleSports🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.33%EV -10.51%E -8.15%K -36.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.78%EV -10.28%E -1.47%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -10.96%E -2.19%K -2.74%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-22 11:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 69.12%EV -13.98%E -11.27%K -58.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.24%EV -10.28%E -1.47%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.63%EV -18.08%E -3.93%K -5.02%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-23 07:50
Pinnacle🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.14%EV -3.57%E -2.57%K -9.15%G +0.000%6.84I 14.62%NM 13.85%EV -12.33%E -1.80%K -2.11%G +0.000%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.01%EV -6.33%E -1.20%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-23 15:35
SportsBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.77%EV -6.34%E -4.70%K -18.13%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.55%EV -13.48%E -2.00%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -12.74%E -2.60%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-23 13:07
1xBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.62%EV -4.26%E -3.09%K -11.22%G +0.000%6.56I 15.24%NM 14.22%EV -15.92%E -2.43%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.14I 19.46%NM 18.15%EV -8.47%E -1.65%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-23 07:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.48%EV -7.73%E -5.81%K -23.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -16.69%E -2.57%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.51%EV -7.40%E -1.42%K -1.76%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-23 15:50
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -7.73%E -5.81%K -23.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -16.69%E -2.57%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%EV -15.41%E -3.24%K -4.11%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-23 13:06
Unibet (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 68.44%EV -13.28%E -10.63%K -53.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.16%EV -16.69%E -2.57%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 18.40%EV -17.19%E -3.70%K -4.71%G +0.000%16.9%2026-10-23 15:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 67.95%EV -9.12%E -6.96%K -29.42%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.24%EV -19.89%E -3.18%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.80%EV -10.96%E -2.19%K -2.74%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-23 15:51
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.58%EV -7.73%E -5.81%K -23.43%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.17%EV -19.89%E -3.18%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -18.08%E -3.93%K -5.02%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-23 13:11
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.41I 70.92%NM 69.59%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.76%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.65%1.9%2026-10-23 14:07
Smarkets◎1.39I 71.94%NM 66.08%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%8.9%2026-10-23 12:26
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 63.17%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.85%4.30I 23.26%NM 19.98%16.4%2026-10-22 11:03
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 63.17%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.85%4.30I 23.26%NM 19.98%16.4%2026-10-22 11:04
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 56.76%3.70I 27.03%NM 20.86%3.45I 28.99%NM 22.38%29.5%2026-10-22 11:03