The School of Odds
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Abha Club v Al-Kholood

Kickoff: 2026-10-19 15:20 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Abha Club (Local)

Prediction 32.92%3.04fair odd
EV -5.51%
Edge -1.92%
Kelly -2.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.91%32.84%33.05%33.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.712.702.8739.22%36.91%37.04%34.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Kholood (Visit)

Prediction 39.64%2.52fair odd
EV -4.87%
Edge -2.03%
Kelly -3.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.17%39.68%39.43%41.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.302.302.4048.78%43.47%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.44%3.64fair odd
EV -3.95%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.47%27.48%27.52%28.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.263.253.5032.79%30.70%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Abha Club (Local): 32.92%; Al-Kholood (Visit): 39.64%; Draw: 27.44%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.64. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.50, with an expected value of -3.95%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.99%EV -5.51%E -1.92%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.95%EV -6.06%E -2.56%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.05%EV -3.95%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-17 12:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 32.73%EV -5.51%E -1.92%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.64%EV -6.06%E -2.56%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-17 12:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.91%EV -6.17%E -2.17%K -3.34%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.34%EV -12.80%E -5.82%K -10.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-18 10:04
Pinnacle🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.05%EV -6.50%E -2.29%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -5.67%E -2.38%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.52%EV -6.42%E -1.88%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-16 14:45
1xBet🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 33.28%EV -7.49%E -2.67%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.46%EV -6.06%E -2.56%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.26%EV -5.87%E -1.71%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-16 13:34
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -7.82%E -2.79%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -4.87%E -2.03%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.70%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-16 15:20
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -9.47%E -3.44%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -6.86%E -2.92%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-17 13:14
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -9.47%E -3.44%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -6.86%E -2.92%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-17 13:15
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -9.47%E -3.44%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -6.86%E -2.92%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-17 13:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -9.47%E -3.44%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -6.86%E -2.92%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-17 13:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -9.47%E -3.44%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -6.86%E -2.92%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-17 13:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -9.47%E -3.44%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -6.86%E -2.92%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-17 13:15
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -9.47%E -3.44%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.84%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 15:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 32.28%EV -10.45%E -3.84%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 40.46%EV -13.99%E -6.45%K -11.96%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 27.27%EV -11.63%E -3.61%K -5.24%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-17 15:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -11.11%E -4.12%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -5.67%E -2.38%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-18 12:10
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.82%EV -11.11%E -4.12%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -8.84%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.47%EV -5.32%E -1.54%K -2.17%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-16 13:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -11.11%E -4.12%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.39%EV -8.84%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.05%EV -8.07%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-16 23:15
Paddy Power🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -11.11%E -4.12%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -8.84%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-18 12:08
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.52%EV -12.76%E -4.81%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.29%EV -8.05%E -3.47%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.20%EV -13.56%E -4.30%K -6.30%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-17 13:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.52%EV -12.76%E -4.81%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.29%EV -8.05%E -3.47%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.20%EV -13.56%E -4.30%K -6.30%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-17 13:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.41%EV -12.76%E -4.81%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.49%EV -8.84%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.10%EV -13.56%E -4.30%K -6.30%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-17 13:14
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 31.91%EV -12.76%E -4.81%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 41.25%EV -18.75%E -9.14%K -17.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.84%EV -13.56%E -4.30%K -6.30%G +0.000%18.3%2026-10-17 15:25
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.72%EV -13.42%E -5.10%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.41%EV -10.82%E -4.81%K -8.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-16 15:48
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.51%EV -13.75%E -5.25%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.17%EV -8.84%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -14.93%E -4.82%K -7.11%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-16 15:00
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.51%EV -13.75%E -5.25%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.17%EV -8.84%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -14.93%E -4.82%K -7.11%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-16 15:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.51%EV -13.75%E -5.25%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.17%EV -8.84%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -14.93%E -4.82%K -7.11%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-16 15:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.51%EV -13.75%E -5.25%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.17%EV -8.84%E -3.84%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.32%EV -14.93%E -4.82%K -7.11%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-16 15:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.40%EV -14.40%E -5.54%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.47%EV -12.80%E -5.82%K -10.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.13%EV -12.18%E -3.81%K -5.54%G +0.000%15.2%2026-10-16 23:14
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.40%EV -14.40%E -5.54%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.47%EV -12.80%E -5.82%K -10.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.13%EV -12.18%E -3.81%K -5.54%G +0.000%15.2%2026-10-17 10:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.56%EV -16.05%E -6.29%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 38.38%EV -11.61%E -5.21%K -9.44%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.06%EV -16.30%E -5.34%K -7.95%G +0.000%16.8%2026-10-17 13:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.34%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.21%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.46%2.0%2026-10-18 09:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 33.32%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.03%4.2%2026-10-18 09:09
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 33.32%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.03%4.2%2026-10-18 09:09
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 33.32%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.03%4.2%2026-10-18 09:09
Smarkets◎2.78I 35.97%NM 33.42%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%7.6%2026-10-18 10:20