The School of Odds
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Abha Club v Al-Ittihad

Kickoff: 2026-10-30 12:30 UTC

Final: Abha Club 1–1 Al-Ittihad

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Abha Club (Local)

Prediction 15.38%6.50fair odd
EV -0.029%
Edge -0.004%
Kelly -0.005%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.00%15.46%15.40%17.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.665.506.5020.00%17.67%18.18%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Al-Ittihad (Visit)

Prediction 64.93%1.54fair odd
EV -3.90%
Edge -2.63%
Kelly -8.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.35%64.85%65.00%67.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.421.401.4874.63%70.51%71.43%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.69%5.08fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -0.597%
Kelly -0.749%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.58%19.69%19.60%21.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.444.314.9325.64%22.50%23.17%20.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Abha Club (Local): 15.38%; Al-Ittihad (Visit): 64.93%; Draw: 19.69%. For Abha Club (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.502. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 6.500, with an expected value of -0.029%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -0.029%E -0.004%K -0.005%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.72%EV -6.50%E -4.51%K -14.76%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -5.50%E -1.15%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-30 12:05
Coral🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.56%EV -0.029%E -0.004%K -0.005%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.72%EV -6.50%E -4.51%K -14.76%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.72%EV -5.50%E -1.15%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-30 12:05
Unibet (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -0.029%E -0.004%K -0.005%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.90%EV -7.80%E -5.49%K -18.56%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.70%EV -6.49%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-30 12:05
Tipico (DE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -0.029%E -0.004%K -0.005%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 67.42%EV -12.34%E -9.14%K -35.26%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -3.53%E -0.721%K -0.906%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-30 12:10
SportsBet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.64%EV -3.87%E -0.620%K -0.738%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.30%EV -10.39%E -7.53%K -27.35%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.06%EV -5.50%E -1.15%K -1.45%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-30 12:05
Pinnacle🎯6.12I 16.34%NM 15.47%EV -5.87%E -0.960%K -1.15%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.31%EV -5.85%E -4.03%K -12.99%G +0.000%4.93I 20.28%NM 19.21%EV -2.94%E -0.597%K -0.749%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-30 12:10
betfred_uk🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -7.72%E -1.29%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -9.09%E -6.50%K -22.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -11.41%E -2.54%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-30 11:45
Paddy Power🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -7.72%E -1.29%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.09%EV -11.69%E -8.60%K -32.48%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.92%EV -6.49%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-30 12:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -7.72%E -1.29%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.09%EV -11.69%E -8.60%K -32.48%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.92%EV -6.49%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-30 12:15
1xBet🎯5.97I 16.75%NM 15.69%EV -8.18%E -1.37%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.16%EV -5.20%E -3.56%K -11.30%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.15%EV -8.46%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-30 12:05
Betclic (FR)🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 14.86%EV -9.26%E -1.57%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 65.43%EV -12.99%E -9.69%K -38.21%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 19.70%EV -12.39%E -2.79%K -3.59%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-30 12:09
Winamax (DE)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 15.68%EV -10.80%E -1.86%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.97%EV -9.09%E -6.50%K -22.73%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.35%EV -7.47%E -1.59%K -2.02%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-30 12:05
Winamax (FR)🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.01%EV -13.87%E -2.48%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 64.50%EV -9.74%E -7.01%K -24.98%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.49%EV -9.44%E -2.05%K -2.62%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-30 12:05
Sky Bet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.26%EV -15.41%E -2.80%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.87%EV -9.09%E -6.50%K -22.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.87%EV -11.41%E -2.54%K -3.26%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-30 12:03
888sport🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -15.41%E -2.80%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -9.09%E -6.50%K -22.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -17.32%E -4.12%K -5.41%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-30 12:05
William Hill🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -15.41%E -2.80%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -9.09%E -6.50%K -22.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -17.32%E -4.12%K -5.41%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-30 12:05
888sport (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -15.41%E -2.80%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -9.09%E -6.50%K -22.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -17.32%E -4.12%K -5.41%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-30 12:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -15.41%E -2.80%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 62.98%EV -9.09%E -6.50%K -22.73%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.99%EV -17.32%E -4.12%K -5.41%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-30 12:05
Unibet🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.20%EV -18.49%E -3.49%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.60%EV -3.90%E -2.63%K -8.12%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.20%EV -15.35%E -3.57%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-30 12:05
Unibet (SE)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.20%EV -18.49%E -3.49%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.60%EV -3.90%E -2.63%K -8.12%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.20%EV -15.35%E -3.57%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-30 12:05
Grosvenor🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.20%EV -18.49%E -3.49%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.60%EV -3.90%E -2.63%K -8.12%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.20%EV -15.35%E -3.57%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-30 12:05
Unibet (NL)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.20%EV -18.49%E -3.49%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.60%EV -3.90%E -2.63%K -8.12%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.20%EV -15.35%E -3.57%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-30 12:05
ATG (SE)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.20%EV -18.49%E -3.49%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.60%EV -3.90%E -2.63%K -8.12%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.20%EV -15.35%E -3.57%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-30 12:05
Svenska Spel🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.20%EV -18.49%E -3.49%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.60%EV -3.90%E -2.63%K -8.12%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.20%EV -15.35%E -3.57%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-30 12:05
Virgin Bet🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.17%EV -20.02%E -3.85%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 61.57%EV -5.85%E -4.03%K -12.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.26%EV -17.32%E -4.12%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-30 12:05
LiveScore Bet🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.17%EV -20.02%E -3.85%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 61.57%EV -5.85%E -4.03%K -12.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.26%EV -17.32%E -4.12%K -5.41%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-30 12:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.02%EV -20.02%E -3.85%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 61.90%EV -7.15%E -5.00%K -16.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.08%EV -17.32%E -4.12%K -5.41%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-30 12:05
Unibet (FR)🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 16.17%EV -20.02%E -3.85%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 62.28%EV -12.34%E -9.14%K -35.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.56%EV -23.22%E -5.95%K -8.01%G +0.000%18.9%2026-10-30 12:10
BoyleSports🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.46%EV -23.10%E -4.62%K -5.77%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 62.37%EV -9.09%E -6.50%K -22.73%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.17%EV -14.76%E -3.41%K -4.43%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-30 11:40
PMU (FR)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.18%EV -23.10%E -4.62%K -5.77%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 61.35%EV -9.09%E -6.50%K -22.73%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.47%EV -21.25%E -5.31%K -7.08%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-30 12:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎7.20I 13.89%NM 13.78%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.50%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%0.8%2026-10-30 12:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎7.20I 13.89%NM 13.78%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.50%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%0.8%2026-10-30 12:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎7.20I 13.89%NM 13.78%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.50%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%0.8%2026-10-30 12:20
Kalshi◎7.14I 14.01%NM 13.73%1.45I 68.97%NM 67.62%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.64%2.0%2026-10-30 12:10
Smarkets◎7.00I 14.29%NM 13.99%1.45I 68.97%NM 67.53%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.48%2.1%2026-10-30 12:20