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Zenit St Petersburg v Spartak Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-03-14 13:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zenit St Petersburg (Local)

Prediction 48.83%2.05fair odd
EV -2.82%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -2.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.28%48.83%48.57%50.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.911.921.9955.56%52.30%52.08%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Spartak Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 24.40%4.10fair odd
EV +1.49%
Edge +0.358%
Kelly +0.471%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 4.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.22%24.40%24.66%24.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.723.973.954.1626.88%25.19%25.32%24.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.77%3.74fair odd
EV +0.656%
Edge +0.174%
Kelly +0.238%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.75%26.77%26.77%26.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.463.603.613.7628.90%27.78%27.70%26.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zenit St Petersburg (Local): 48.83%; Spartak Moscow (Visit): 24.40%; Draw: 26.77%. For Spartak Moscow (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.10. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.16, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.49%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.97%EV -7.22%E -3.80%K -8.02%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 23.28%EV +1.49%E +0.358%K +0.471%G +0.007%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.75%EV +0.656%E +0.174%K +0.238%G +0.002%3.3%2026-03-14 12:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.65%EV -4.78%E -2.45%K -5.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.61%EV +0.026%E +0.006%K +0.008%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.74%EV -3.09%E -0.854%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-14 12:55
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.95%EV -12.10%E -6.72%K -15.13%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.22%EV -3.63%E -0.920%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.83%EV -4.97%E -1.40%K -1.95%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-14 12:51
Pinnacle🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.57%EV -2.82%E -1.42%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.66%EV -4.37%E -1.11%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.77%EV -3.36%E -0.931%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-14 12:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.28%EV -6.24%E -3.25%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 24.92%EV -9.24%E -2.49%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.79%EV -7.38%E -2.13%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-14 12:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.