Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zenit St Petersburg v Rodina Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 14:00 UTC

Final: Zenit St Petersburg 1–2 Rodina Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

80%

13%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zenit St Petersburg (Local)

Prediction 80.15%1.25fair odd

EV -4.62%

Edge -3.88%

Kelly -24.30%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

78.67%80.08%80.15%83.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.101.161.171.1990.91%86.21%85.47%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rodina Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 6.66%15.02fair odd

EV +24.49%

Edge +1.31%

Kelly +1.38%

Growth +0.339%

assuming max odds 18.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

5.12%6.85%6.66%8.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

11.5015.4215.6618.708.70%6.49%6.39%5.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 13.19%7.58fair odd

EV +16.06%

Edge +1.83%

Kelly +2.06%

Growth +0.331%

assuming max odds 8.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

11.04%13.07%13.19%13.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

6.807.657.528.8014.71%13.08%13.31%11.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zenit St Petersburg (Local): 80.15%; Rodina Moscow (Visit): 6.66%; Draw: 13.19%. For Rodina Moscow (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.02. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 18.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +24.49%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 83.76%EV -7.02%E -6.05%K -43.88%G +0.000%	18.70I 5.35%NM 5.20%EV +24.49%E +1.31%K +1.38%G +0.339%	8.80I 11.36%NM 11.04%EV +16.06%E +1.83%K +2.06%G +0.331%	2.9%	2026-08-09 13:55
Bovada🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 83.72%EV -11.83%E -10.76%K -118.31%G +0.000%	18.00I 5.56%NM 5.12%EV +19.83%E +1.10%K +1.17%G +0.231%	8.25I 12.12%NM 11.16%EV +8.81%E +1.07%K +1.21%G +0.107%	8.6%	2026-08-09 13:49
Marathon Bet🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 81.50%EV -5.42%E -4.59%K -30.10%G +0.000%	16.00I 6.25%NM 6.01%EV +6.52%E +0.407%K +0.434%G +0.028%	7.70I 12.99%NM 12.49%EV +1.55%E +0.202%K +0.232%G +0.004%	4.0%	2026-08-09 13:55
Pinnacle🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 80.64%EV -4.62%E -3.88%K -24.30%G +0.000%	15.31I 6.53%NM 6.27%EV +1.92%E +0.126%K +0.134%G +0.003%	7.33I 13.64%NM 13.09%EV -3.33%E -0.454%K -0.526%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-08-09 13:55
Codere (IT)🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 79.52%EV -7.82%E -6.80%K -52.15%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.03%EV -13.45%E -1.03%K -1.12%G +0.000%	6.80I 14.71%NM 13.45%EV -10.32%E -1.52%K -1.78%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-08-09 13:55
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.67%EV -5.42%E -4.59%K -30.10%G +0.000%	11.50I 8.70%NM 8.07%EV -23.44%E -2.04%K -2.23%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -7.68%E -1.10%K -1.28%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-08-09 13:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.