Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zenit St Petersburg v Rodina Moscow

2026-08-09 14:00 UTC — Premier League - Russia

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

83%

11%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zenit St Petersburg (Local)

Prediction 83.15%1.20fair odd

EV -4.38%

Edge -3.81%

Kelly -29.19%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

80.69%82.87%83.15%85.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.071.121.131.1593.46%89.42%88.89%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rodina Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 5.74%17.41fair odd

EV +37.85%

Edge +1.58%

Kelly +1.65%

Growth +0.623%

assuming max odds 24.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

4.11%5.58%5.74%6.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

14.0019.0719.7124.007.14%5.24%5.07%4.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.11%9.00fair odd

EV +8.85%

Edge +0.903%

Kelly +1.01%

Growth +0.089%

assuming max odds 9.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

10.07%11.54%11.11%13.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

6.808.568.879.8014.71%11.69%11.27%10.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Zenit St Petersburg (Local): 83.15%; Rodina Moscow (Visit): 5.74%; Draw: 11.11%. For Rodina Moscow (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 17.41. 4 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 24.00, producing a positive expected value of +37.85%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 85.82%EV -4.38%E -3.81%K -29.19%G +0.000%	24.00I 4.17%NM 4.11%EV +37.85%E +1.58%K +1.65%G +0.623%	9.80I 10.20%NM 10.07%EV +8.85%E +0.903%K +1.01%G +0.089%	1.3%	2026-08-06 19:10
Marathon Bet🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 84.87%EV -6.04%E -5.35%K -46.47%G +0.000%	22.00I 4.55%NM 4.36%EV +26.37%E +1.20%K +1.26%G +0.331%	8.90I 11.24%NM 10.78%EV -1.15%E -0.129%K -0.145%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-08-06 19:04
Bovada🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 85.65%EV -11.03%E -10.31%K -157.58%G +0.000%	22.00I 4.55%NM 4.17%EV +26.37%E +1.20%K +1.26%G +0.331%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.18%EV -0.038%E -0.004%K -0.005%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-08-06 19:07
Pinnacle🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.84%EV -6.04%E -5.35%K -46.47%G +0.000%	17.42I 5.74%NM 5.44%EV +0.059%E +0.003%K +0.004%G +0.000%	8.84I 11.31%NM 10.72%EV -1.81%E -0.205%K -0.231%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-08-06 19:56
Codere (IT)🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 80.69%EV -6.87%E -6.14%K -57.27%G +0.000%	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.02%EV -13.84%E -0.923%K -0.989%G +0.000%	6.80I 14.71%NM 13.29%EV -24.47%E -3.60%K -4.22%G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-08-06 19:15
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 82.10%EV -7.70%E -6.94%K -70.04%G +0.000%	14.00I 7.14%NM 6.51%EV -19.58%E -1.40%K -1.51%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.39%EV -11.14%E -1.39%K -1.59%G +0.000%	9.7%	2026-08-06 20:26

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.