The School of Odds
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Zenit St Petersburg v Lokomotiv Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 13:15 UTC

Final: Zenit St Petersburg 2–1 Lokomotiv Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zenit St Petersburg (Local)

Prediction 66.35%1.51fair odd
EV -1.13%
Edge -0.760%
Kelly -2.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.02%66.72%66.35%68.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.401.381.4973.53%71.28%72.46%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lokomotiv Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 14.19%7.05fair odd
EV +5.97%
Edge +0.800%
Kelly +0.923%
Growth +0.055%

assuming max odds 7.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.64%13.85%14.19%14.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.256.636.407.4716.00%15.09%15.63%13.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.46%5.14fair odd
EV -1.14%
Edge -0.225%
Kelly -0.280%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.96%19.44%19.46%19.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.804.705.0822.22%20.83%21.28%19.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zenit St Petersburg (Local): 66.35%; Lokomotiv Moscow (Visit): 14.19%; Draw: 19.46%. For Lokomotiv Moscow (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.05. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.47, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.97%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.41%EV -8.43%E -6.11%K -22.19%G +0.000%7.47I 13.39%NM 12.64%EV +5.97%E +0.800%K +0.923%G +0.055%4.98I 20.08%NM 18.96%EV -3.09%E -0.621%K -0.776%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-08 14:05
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 66.15%EV -1.13%E -0.760%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.82I 14.66%NM 14.45%EV -3.25%E -0.476%K -0.558%G +0.000%5.08I 19.69%NM 19.40%EV -1.14%E -0.225%K -0.280%G +0.000%1.5%2026-09-09 12:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.18%EV -3.79%E -2.61%K -8.42%G +0.000%6.65I 15.04%NM 14.43%EV -5.66%E -0.851%K -1.00%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.39%EV -3.67%E -0.742%K -0.930%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-09 12:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.26%EV -8.43%E -6.11%K -22.19%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.29%EV -9.21%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.45%EV -8.54%E -1.82%K -2.31%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 13:05
BetUS🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.26%EV -8.43%E -6.11%K -22.19%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.29%EV -9.21%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.45%EV -8.54%E -1.82%K -2.31%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-09 13:01
Codere (IT)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.02%EV -9.76%E -7.18%K -27.11%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.03%EV -9.21%E -1.44%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.95%EV -12.43%E -2.76%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-07 13:20
Bovada🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.03%EV -8.43%E -6.11%K -22.19%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.58%EV -11.33%E -1.81%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.39%EV -8.54%E -1.82%K -2.31%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-09 12:32
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.