Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zenit St Petersburg v Kryliya Sovetov

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 12:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

77%

16%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zenit St Petersburg (Local)

Prediction 77.21%1.30fair odd

EV -1.17%

Edge -0.910%

Kelly -4.16%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

76.41%77.21%77.21%77.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.201.251.251.2883.33%80.32%80.00%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kryliya Sovetov (Visit)

Prediction 7.14%14.00fair odd

EV +0.497%

Edge +0.035%

Kelly +0.038%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 14.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

6.84%7.14%7.14%7.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

12.0013.0713.1014.078.33%7.65%7.63%7.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.64%6.39fair odd

EV -2.23%

Edge -0.357%

Kelly -0.425%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

15.55%15.64%15.64%15.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.756.096.176.2517.39%16.43%16.21%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zenit St Petersburg (Local): 77.21%; Kryliya Sovetov (Visit): 7.14%; Draw: 15.64%. For Kryliya Sovetov (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 14.00. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 14.07, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.497%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Draw	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.61%EV -4.25%E -3.43%K -17.72%G +0.000%	14.07I 7.11%NM 6.84%EV +0.497%E +0.035%K +0.038%G +0.000%	6.19I 16.16%NM 15.55%EV -3.17%E -0.512%K -0.611%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-04-04 11:54
1xBet🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 76.82%EV -1.17%E -0.910%K -4.16%G +0.000%	13.20I 7.58%NM 7.45%EV -5.72%E -0.433%K -0.469%G +0.000%	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.73%EV -2.23%E -0.357%K -0.425%G +0.000%	1.7%	2026-04-04 11:55
Marathon Bet🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 76.82%EV -2.71%E -2.15%K -10.42%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.45%EV -7.15%E -0.550%K -0.595%G +0.000%	6.15I 16.26%NM 15.74%EV -3.80%E -0.617%K -0.737%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-04-04 11:55
Bovada🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 76.41%EV -7.34%E -6.12%K -36.71%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.64%EV -14.29%E -1.19%K -1.30%G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -10.05%E -1.75%K -2.12%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-04-04 11:47

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.