Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zenit St Petersburg v FK Sochi

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 12:00 UTC

Final: Zenit St Petersburg 2–1 FK Sochi

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

83%

11%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zenit St Petersburg (Local)

Prediction 82.63%1.21fair odd

EV -1.68%

Edge -1.41%

Kelly -8.82%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.19

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

81.67%82.63%82.63%83.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.131.161.151.1988.50%86.46%86.96%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FK Sochi (Visit)

Prediction 6.18%16.17fair odd

EV +7.49%

Edge +0.431%

Kelly +0.458%

Growth +0.034%

assuming max odds 17.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

5.52%6.18%6.18%6.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

13.5015.8316.6017.387.41%6.32%6.02%5.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.19%8.94fair odd

EV -3.32%

Edge -0.384%

Kelly -0.434%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

11.10%11.19%11.19%12.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

7.798.218.208.6412.84%12.18%12.20%11.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zenit St Petersburg (Local): 82.63%; FK Sochi (Visit): 6.18%; Draw: 11.19%. For FK Sochi (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 16.17. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 17.38, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.49%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Draw	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 83.38%EV -4.98%E -4.33%K -33.21%G +0.000%	17.38I 5.75%NM 5.52%EV +7.49%E +0.431%K +0.458%G +0.034%	8.64I 11.57%NM 11.10%EV -3.32%E -0.384%K -0.434%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-05-10 11:44
1xBet🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 81.67%EV -1.68%E -1.41%K -8.82%G +0.000%	16.60I 6.02%NM 5.85%EV +2.67%E +0.161%K +0.171%G +0.005%	7.79I 12.84%NM 12.48%EV -12.83%E -1.65%K -1.89%G +0.000%	2.9%	2026-05-10 11:49
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 81.87%EV -6.63%E -5.87%K -51.03%G +0.000%	13.50I 7.41%NM 6.85%EV -16.50%E -1.22%K -1.32%G +0.000%	8.20I 12.20%NM 11.28%EV -8.24%E -1.01%K -1.14%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-05-10 11:44

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.