The School of Odds
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Zenit St Petersburg v FC Krasnodar

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 16:30 UTC

Final: Zenit St Petersburg 1–1 FC Krasnodar

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zenit St Petersburg (Local)

Prediction 46.39%2.16fair odd
EV -2.59%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -2.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.86%46.64%46.39%47.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.032.022.1050.51%49.22%49.50%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Krasnodar (Visit)

Prediction 25.12%3.98fair odd
EV +4.51%
Edge +1.08%
Kelly +1.43%
Growth +0.064%

assuming max odds 4.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.66%24.97%25.12%25.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.583.823.754.1627.93%26.14%26.63%24.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.49%3.51fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -0.748%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.70%28.39%28.49%28.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.333.353.4231.25%30.06%29.81%29.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zenit St Petersburg (Local): 46.39%; FC Krasnodar (Visit): 25.12%; Draw: 28.49%. For FC Krasnodar (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.98. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.16, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.51%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 47.55%EV -3.98%E -1.92%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.16I 24.04%NM 23.66%EV +4.51%E +1.08%K +1.43%G +0.064%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.78%EV -2.56%E -0.748%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.6%2026-04-12 16:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 47.59%EV -5.37%E -2.63%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.68%EV +3.00%E +0.732%K +0.968%G +0.029%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.73%EV -3.70%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-12 16:04
Pinnacle🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 46.10%EV -2.59%E -1.23%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.08%EV -3.03%E -0.785%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.81%EV -4.27%E -1.27%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-12 16:01
Codere (IT)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.47%EV -8.15%E -4.12%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -8.31%E -2.28%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -7.40%E -2.28%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-12 05:30
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -7.23%E -3.61%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -9.56%E -2.66%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -8.83%E -2.76%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-12 11:46
BetOnline.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.39%EV -7.23%E -3.61%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.92%EV -10.06%E -2.81%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.70%EV -4.55%E -1.36%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 16:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.