The School of Odds
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Zenit St Petersburg v FC Dynamo Makhachkala

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 15:30 UTC

Final: Zenit St Petersburg 2–0 FC Dynamo Makhachkala

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zenit St Petersburg (Local)

Prediction 76.09%1.31fair odd
EV -4.89%
Edge -3.91%
Kelly -19.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.48%76.17%76.09%78.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.231.231.2583.33%81.21%81.30%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit)

Prediction 8.28%12.08fair odd
EV +15.86%
Edge +1.13%
Kelly +1.22%
Growth +0.194%

assuming max odds 14.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.86%8.14%8.28%9.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0011.7112.0014.0010.00%8.54%8.33%7.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.63%6.40fair odd
EV -0.723%
Edge -0.114%
Kelly -0.135%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.11%15.69%15.63%16.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.605.986.006.3517.86%16.71%16.67%15.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zenit St Petersburg (Local): 76.09%; FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit): 8.28%; Draw: 15.63%. For FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.08. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 14.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.86%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 78.03%EV -6.41%E -5.21%K -27.87%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.86%EV +15.86%E +1.13%K +1.22%G +0.194%6.35I 15.75%NM 15.11%EV -0.723%E -0.114%K -0.135%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-25 15:23
1xBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.65%EV -4.89%E -3.91%K -19.55%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.67%EV +3.45%E +0.276%K +0.300%G +0.010%6.11I 16.37%NM 15.68%EV -4.48%E -0.733%K -0.876%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-25 15:23
Pinnacle🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.55%EV -4.89%E -3.91%K -19.55%G +0.000%12.44I 8.04%NM 7.69%EV +2.95%E +0.237%K +0.258%G +0.008%6.07I 16.47%NM 15.76%EV -5.10%E -0.840%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-25 15:15
Bovada🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.41%EV -8.69%E -7.24%K -43.46%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.64%EV -0.691%E -0.058%K -0.063%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -10.10%E -1.76%K -2.13%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-25 15:22
BetOnline.ag🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.63%EV -6.41%E -5.21%K -27.87%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.86%EV -13.10%E -1.25%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.51%EV -6.20%E -1.03%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-25 15:23
BetUS🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.63%EV -6.41%E -5.21%K -27.87%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.86%EV -13.10%E -1.25%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.51%EV -6.20%E -1.03%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-25 15:23
Codere (IT)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.48%EV -6.41%E -5.21%K -27.87%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.16%EV -17.24%E -1.72%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.36%EV -12.45%E -2.22%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-25 15:23
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.