The School of Odds
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Zenit St Petersburg v FC Baltika Kaliningrad

Kickoff: 2026-02-27 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zenit St Petersburg (Local)

Prediction 60.67%1.65fair odd
EV -1.71%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -2.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.03%60.81%60.67%61.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.561.561.6267.11%64.24%64.31%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit)

Prediction 14.55%6.87fair odd
EV +3.77%
Edge +0.529%
Kelly +0.615%
Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 7.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.54%14.37%14.55%14.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.206.616.587.1316.13%15.12%15.21%14.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.78%4.04fair odd
EV -1.14%
Edge -0.287%
Kelly -0.383%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.18%24.82%24.78%25.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.843.863.9927.40%26.02%25.91%25.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zenit St Petersburg (Local): 60.67%; FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit): 14.55%; Draw: 24.78%. For FC Baltika Kaliningrad (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.87. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.13, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.77%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.89%EV -5.35%E -3.43%K -9.56%G +0.000%7.13I 14.03%NM 13.54%EV +3.77%E +0.529%K +0.615%G +0.023%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.57%EV -2.63%E -0.669%K -0.898%G +0.000%3.6%2026-02-27 14:59
1xBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 60.78%EV -1.71%E -1.06%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.77I 14.77%NM 14.54%EV -1.47%E -0.217%K -0.255%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 24.68%EV -1.14%E -0.287%K -0.383%G +0.000%1.6%2026-02-27 14:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.80%EV -3.53%E -2.22%K -5.99%G +0.000%6.65I 15.04%NM 14.54%EV -3.22%E -0.484%K -0.569%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.66%EV -2.88%E -0.734%K -0.986%G +0.000%3.4%2026-02-27 14:59
Bovada🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.68%EV -9.60%E -6.44%K -19.60%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.14%EV -5.40%E -0.831%K -0.982%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.85%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-27 14:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.54%EV -5.96%E -3.85%K -10.84%G +0.000%6.44I 15.53%NM 14.57%EV -6.27%E -0.974%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 24.89%EV -6.59%E -1.75%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-27 15:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.03%EV -7.17%E -4.69%K -13.54%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.81%EV -9.76%E -1.57%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -9.57%E -2.62%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-27 15:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.