The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Zenit St Petersburg v FC Akhmat Grozny

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 11:00 UTC

Final: Zenit St Petersburg 3–2 FC Akhmat Grozny

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zenit St Petersburg (Local)

Prediction 70.86%1.41fair odd
EV -4.34%
Edge -3.22%
Kelly -12.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.30%70.73%70.86%72.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.331.341.3576.92%75.11%74.63%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit)

Prediction 11.19%8.93fair odd
EV +4.32%
Edge +0.464%
Kelly +0.520%
Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 9.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.31%11.24%11.19%12.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.608.428.509.3213.16%11.88%11.76%10.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.95%5.57fair odd
EV -2.18%
Edge -0.399%
Kelly -0.489%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.59%18.03%17.95%18.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.205.205.4520.41%19.22%19.23%18.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zenit St Petersburg (Local): 70.86%; FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit): 11.19%; Draw: 17.95%. For FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.93. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.32, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.32%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.80%EV -5.05%E -3.77%K -14.86%G +0.000%9.32I 10.73%NM 10.32%EV +4.32%E +0.464%K +0.520%G +0.022%5.38I 18.59%NM 17.88%EV -3.43%E -0.638%K -0.784%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-18 10:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.10%EV -5.76%E -4.33%K -17.46%G +0.000%9.30I 10.75%NM 10.31%EV +4.10%E +0.441%K +0.494%G +0.020%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.59%EV -2.18%E -0.399%K -0.489%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-18 10:29
1xBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.16%EV -4.34%E -3.22%K -12.41%G +0.000%8.99I 11.12%NM 10.69%EV +0.631%E +0.070%K +0.079%G +0.000%5.29I 18.90%NM 18.16%EV -5.05%E -0.954%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-18 10:55
Bovada🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -7.89%E -6.07%K -26.29%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -4.85%E -0.571%K -0.647%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -10.25%E -2.05%K -2.56%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-18 10:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.73%EV -5.05%E -3.77%K -14.86%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.30%EV -14.93%E -1.96%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.97%EV -6.66%E -1.28%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 10:55
BetUS🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.73%EV -5.05%E -3.77%K -14.86%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.30%EV -14.93%E -1.96%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.97%EV -6.66%E -1.28%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 10:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.30%EV -6.47%E -4.90%K -20.22%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.04%EV -14.93%E -1.96%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -12.05%E -2.46%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-18 10:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.