The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Zenit St Petersburg v FC Akhmat Grozny

Kickoff: 2026-04-26 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zenit St Petersburg (Local)

Prediction 74.86%1.34fair odd
EV -2.68%
Edge -2.07%
Kelly -8.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.78%74.65%74.86%76.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.251.231.3081.97%80.00%80.97%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit)

Prediction 8.43%11.86fair odd
EV +8.33%
Edge +0.648%
Kelly +0.703%
Growth +0.059%

assuming max odds 12.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.36%8.33%8.43%9.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0011.4211.6312.8510.00%8.76%8.60%7.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.71%5.98fair odd
EV -0.566%
Edge -0.095%
Kelly -0.114%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.41%17.02%16.71%18.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.545.585.9520.41%18.04%17.92%16.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zenit St Petersburg (Local): 74.86%; FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit): 8.43%; Draw: 16.71%. For FC Akhmat Grozny (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.86. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.33%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.23%EV -7.18%E -5.79%K -29.90%G +0.000%12.85I 7.78%NM 7.36%EV +8.33%E +0.648%K +0.703%G +0.059%5.76I 17.36%NM 16.41%EV -3.74%E -0.650%K -0.786%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 18:14
1xBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 75.57%EV -2.68%E -2.07%K -8.95%G +0.000%12.40I 8.06%NM 7.92%EV +4.54%E +0.366%K +0.398%G +0.018%5.95I 16.81%NM 16.51%EV -0.566%E -0.095%K -0.114%G +0.000%1.8%2026-04-23 17:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.57%EV -4.18%E -3.27%K -14.94%G +0.000%12.25I 8.16%NM 7.90%EV +3.27%E +0.267%K +0.291%G +0.010%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.53%EV -2.24%E -0.382%K -0.461%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-23 17:20
Bovada🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.80%EV -8.67%E -7.11%K -39.42%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.30%EV -7.26%E -0.660%K -0.726%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.90%EV -9.76%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-23 17:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.03%EV -7.92%E -6.44%K -34.46%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.11%EV -15.69%E -1.57%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.86%EV -9.76%E -1.81%K -2.22%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-23 21:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 72.78%EV -7.92%E -6.44%K -34.46%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.95%EV -15.69%E -1.57%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.27%EV -18.11%E -3.70%K -4.64%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-23 17:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.