The School of Odds
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Zenit St Petersburg v Dinamo Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 11:30 UTC

Final: Zenit St Petersburg 3–0 Dinamo Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zenit St Petersburg (Local)

Prediction 59.76%1.67fair odd
EV -3.79%
Edge -2.36%
Kelly -6.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.27%59.70%59.76%60.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.581.591.6164.94%63.29%62.89%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dinamo Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 16.81%5.95fair odd
EV +0.344%
Edge +0.058%
Kelly +0.069%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.13%16.85%16.81%18.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.485.515.9720.00%18.24%18.13%16.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.44%4.27fair odd
EV +3.35%
Edge +0.760%
Kelly +0.983%
Growth +0.033%

assuming max odds 4.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.89%23.45%23.44%24.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.124.114.4125.64%24.26%24.33%22.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zenit St Petersburg (Local): 59.76%; Dinamo Moscow (Visit): 16.81%; Draw: 23.44%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.27. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.41, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.35%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.18%EV -3.79%E -2.36%K -6.22%G +0.000%5.43I 18.42%NM 17.84%EV -8.73%E -1.61%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.41I 22.68%NM 21.97%EV +3.35%E +0.760%K +0.983%G +0.033%3.2%2026-08-16 11:20
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.71%EV -7.98%E -5.18%K -14.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.39%EV -15.96%E -3.19%K -3.99%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -1.57%E -0.374%K -0.491%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-16 11:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.02%EV -4.39%E -2.74%K -7.32%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.85%EV -4.19%E -0.736%K -0.892%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.14%EV -2.74%E -0.661%K -0.871%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-16 11:25
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20%EV -4.39%E -2.74%K -7.32%G +0.000%5.97I 16.75%NM 16.13%EV +0.344%E +0.058%K +0.069%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.67%EV -4.62%E -1.13%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-16 11:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.33%EV -7.38%E -4.76%K -13.41%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.68%EV -12.60%E -2.42%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -6.26%E -1.56%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-16 10:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.27%EV -5.59%E -3.53%K -9.63%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.72%EV -5.87%E -1.05%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.01%EV -8.60%E -2.21%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-16 11:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.