The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Zenit St Petersburg v CSKA Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 13:30 UTC

Final: Zenit St Petersburg 1–2 CSKA Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Zenit St Petersburg (Local)

Prediction 58.76%1.70fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -3.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.28%58.70%58.76%59.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.601.611.6664.52%62.44%62.11%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CSKA Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 17.69%5.65fair odd
EV +1.02%
Edge +0.178%
Kelly +0.216%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 5.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.76%17.73%17.69%18.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.325.205.7120.83%18.79%19.23%17.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.55%4.25fair odd
EV +0.085%
Edge +0.020%
Kelly +0.026%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.99%23.56%23.55%23.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.024.004.2526.67%24.88%25.00%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zenit St Petersburg (Local): 58.76%; CSKA Moscow (Visit): 17.69%; Draw: 23.55%. For CSKA Moscow (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.65. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.71, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.02%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -5.99%E -3.74%K -9.98%G +0.000%5.71I 17.51%NM 16.76%EV +1.02%E +0.178%K +0.216%G +0.002%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.45%EV -3.92%E -0.960%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-04 13:50
1xBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 59.35%EV -2.46%E -1.48%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.64I 17.73%NM 17.47%EV -0.221%E -0.039%K -0.048%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 23.18%EV +0.085%E +0.020%K +0.026%G +0.000%1.5%2026-09-04 13:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.50%EV -5.40%E -3.35%K -8.85%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.42%EV -2.70%E -0.491%K -0.600%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.08%EV -2.27%E -0.547%K -0.721%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-04 11:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.23%EV -5.40%E -3.35%K -8.85%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03%EV -8.01%E -1.54%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV -6.98%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 13:34
BetUS🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.23%EV -5.40%E -3.35%K -8.85%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.03%EV -8.01%E -1.54%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.74%EV -6.98%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 13:35
Bovada🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.33%EV -8.92%E -5.76%K -16.22%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.68%EV -8.01%E -1.54%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -5.80%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-04 13:19
Codere (IT)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.28%EV -7.75%E -4.93%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.74%EV -15.08%E -3.14%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.98%EV -11.69%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-04 13:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.