Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ural Sverdlovsk Oblast v FC Dynamo Makhachkala

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 14:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

37%

29%

33%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ural Sverdlovsk Oblast (Local)

Prediction 37.07%2.70fair odd

EV -2.88%

Edge -1.10%

Kelly -1.78%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

36.90%37.07%36.98%37.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.452.552.562.6240.82%39.25%39.06%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit)

Prediction 29.49%3.39fair odd

EV -3.87%

Edge -1.19%

Kelly -1.71%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

28.91%29.49%29.62%29.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.153.223.243.2631.75%31.06%30.91%30.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.44%2.99fair odd

EV -2.68%

Edge -0.921%

Kelly -1.40%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.08%33.44%33.41%33.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.752.832.832.9136.36%35.30%35.27%34.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ural Sverdlovsk Oblast (Local): 37.07%; FC Dynamo Makhachkala (Visit): 29.49%; Draw: 33.44%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.99. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.91, with an expected value of -2.68%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Marathon Bet🎯	2.62I 38.17%NM 36.90%EV -2.88%E -1.10%K -1.78%G +0.000%	3.26I 30.67%NM 29.65%EV -3.87%E -1.19%K -1.71%G +0.000%	2.89I 34.60%NM 33.45%EV -3.35%E -1.16%K -1.77%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-05-20 14:19
Pinnacle🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 37.02%EV -3.62%E -1.39%K -2.26%G +0.000%	3.22I 31.06%NM 29.90%EV -5.05%E -1.57%K -2.28%G +0.000%	2.91I 34.36%NM 33.08%EV -2.68%E -0.921%K -1.40%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-05-20 14:19
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.52I 39.68%NM 37.29%EV -6.58%E -2.61%K -4.33%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.91%EV -4.17%E -1.28%K -1.85%G +0.000%	2.78I 35.97%NM 33.80%EV -7.03%E -2.53%K -3.95%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-05-20 14:19
Bovada🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.47%EV -9.18%E -3.75%K -6.33%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.14%EV -7.12%E -2.26%K -3.31%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.38%EV -8.03%E -2.92%K -4.59%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-05-20 14:16

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.