The School of Odds
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Spartak Moscow v Zenit St Petersburg

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 17:00 UTC

Final: Spartak Moscow 2–0 Zenit St Petersburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Spartak Moscow (Local)

Prediction 38.62%2.59fair odd
EV +5.82%
Edge +2.12%
Kelly +3.35%
Growth +0.195%

assuming max odds 2.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.39%38.60%38.62%40.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.322.502.442.7443.10%40.05%40.98%36.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Zenit St Petersburg (Visit)

Prediction 32.38%3.09fair odd
EV -0.266%
Edge -0.086%
Kelly -0.128%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.36%32.50%32.38%35.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.862.833.0838.46%35.00%35.34%32.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.00%3.45fair odd
EV -2.86%
Edge -0.852%
Kelly -1.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.08%28.90%29.00%29.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.283.333.3531.75%30.53%30.03%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Spartak Moscow (Local): 38.62%; Zenit St Petersburg (Visit): 32.38%; Draw: 29.00%. For Spartak Moscow (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.59. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.74, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.82%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 35.43%EV +5.82%E +2.12%K +3.35%G +0.195%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.43%EV -11.28%E -4.12%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.15%EV -3.44%E -1.03%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-23 16:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.60%EV +1.19%E +0.453%K +0.732%G +0.009%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.89%EV -8.36%E -2.95%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.51%EV -5.76%E -1.77%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-23 16:54
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV +0.413%E +0.159%K +0.258%G +0.001%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -15.81%E -6.08%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -8.66%E -2.75%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-23 16:49
Pinnacle🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.67%EV -5.77%E -2.36%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.43%EV -0.266%E -0.086%K -0.128%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.90%EV -2.86%E -0.852%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-23 16:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 37.57%EV -5.77%E -2.36%K -4.00%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.33%EV -10.95%E -3.98%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.10%EV -8.66%E -2.75%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-23 16:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.55%EV -10.40%E -4.48%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -2.86%E -0.952%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -2.86%E -0.852%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-23 16:54
BetUS🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.55%EV -10.40%E -4.48%K -7.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -2.86%E -0.952%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.08%EV -2.86%E -0.852%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-23 16:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.