The School of Odds
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Spartak Moscow v Rubin Kazan

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 15:45 UTC

Final: Spartak Moscow 4–0 Rubin Kazan

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Spartak Moscow (Local)

Prediction 68.55%1.46fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -2.37%
Kelly -8.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.65%68.60%68.55%69.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.371.361.4174.63%72.92%73.53%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rubin Kazan (Visit)

Prediction 12.11%8.26fair odd
EV +1.73%
Edge +0.206%
Kelly +0.234%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 8.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.27%12.07%12.11%12.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.207.707.608.4013.89%12.98%13.16%11.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.34%5.17fair odd
EV -4.29%
Edge -0.866%
Kelly -1.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.09%19.34%19.34%19.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.704.844.904.9521.28%20.64%20.41%20.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Spartak Moscow (Local): 68.55%; Rubin Kazan (Visit): 12.11%; Draw: 19.34%. For Rubin Kazan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.26. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.73%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.61%EV -6.77%E -4.98%K -18.80%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.27%EV +1.73%E +0.206%K +0.234%G +0.004%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.12%EV -4.29%E -0.866%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-18 15:35
Pinnacle🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.86%EV -4.03%E -2.88%K -10.06%G +0.000%8.32I 12.02%NM 11.59%EV +0.764%E +0.092%K +0.104%G +0.001%4.93I 20.28%NM 19.55%EV -4.67%E -0.948%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-18 15:40
1xBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.12%EV -3.34%E -2.37%K -8.15%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.39%EV -6.14%E -0.792%K -0.910%G +0.000%4.93I 20.28%NM 19.48%EV -4.67%E -0.948%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-18 15:34
BetUS🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.39%EV -6.77%E -4.98%K -18.80%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.24%EV -7.96%E -1.05%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.38%EV -7.19%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-18 15:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.27%EV -6.08%E -4.44%K -16.44%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.64%EV -10.38%E -1.40%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.09%EV -5.25%E -1.07%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-18 15:34
Bovada🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.03%EV -8.14%E -6.07%K -23.94%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.57%EV -12.20%E -1.68%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -9.12%E -1.94%K -2.47%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-18 15:34
Codere (IT)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.65%EV -6.77%E -4.98%K -18.80%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.78%EV -12.80%E -1.78%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.57%EV -9.12%E -1.94%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-18 15:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.