The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Spartak Moscow v Rodina Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-07-25 17:45 UTC

Final: Spartak Moscow 3–0 Rodina Moscow

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Spartak Moscow (Local)

Prediction 72.88%1.37fair odd
EV -3.07%
Edge -2.31%
Kelly -9.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.67%72.88%72.87%73.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.301.311.3380.00%77.16%76.34%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rodina Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 10.10%9.90fair odd
EV -2.12%
Edge -0.219%
Kelly -0.244%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 9.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.90%10.10%10.13%10.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.009.389.409.6911.11%10.67%10.64%10.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.02%5.88fair odd
EV +3.14%
Edge +0.518%
Kelly +0.620%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 6.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.98%17.02%17.00%17.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.405.695.696.0618.52%17.57%17.57%16.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Spartak Moscow (Local): 72.88%; Rodina Moscow (Visit): 10.10%; Draw: 17.02%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.88. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.06, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.14%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.92%EV -4.53%E -3.46%K -14.60%G +0.000%9.59I 10.43%NM 10.10%EV -3.13%E -0.327%K -0.365%G +0.000%6.06I 16.50%NM 15.98%EV +3.14%E +0.518%K +0.620%G +0.019%3.3%2026-07-25 17:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.74%EV -3.07%E -2.31%K -9.30%G +0.000%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.29%EV -5.05%E -0.537%K -0.601%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.97%EV -2.99%E -0.525%K -0.636%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-25 17:15
Pinnacle🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.24%EV -4.53%E -3.46%K -14.60%G +0.000%9.69I 10.32%NM 9.90%EV -2.12%E -0.219%K -0.244%G +0.000%5.69I 17.57%NM 16.86%EV -3.16%E -0.555%K -0.674%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-25 17:35
Bovada🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.42%EV -8.90%E -7.12%K -35.60%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV -9.09%E -1.01%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.39%EV -4.69%E -0.838%K -1.02%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-25 17:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.67%EV -6.71%E -5.25%K -23.98%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.11%EV -7.07%E -0.769%K -0.862%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.22%EV -8.10%E -1.50%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-25 17:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.