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Spartak Moscow v Lokomotiv Moscow

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Spartak Moscow (Local)

Prediction 46.77%2.14fair odd
EV -3.18%
Edge -1.54%
Kelly -2.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.21%46.77%47.05%47.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.022.052.0752.36%49.50%48.78%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lokomotiv Moscow (Visit)

Prediction 27.53%3.63fair odd
EV -1.44%
Edge -0.403%
Kelly -0.560%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.47%27.53%27.12%28.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.263.483.553.5830.67%28.72%28.17%27.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.70%3.89fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -0.970%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.31%25.70%25.82%26.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.693.723.7528.17%27.11%26.88%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Spartak Moscow (Local): 46.77%; Lokomotiv Moscow (Visit): 27.53%; Draw: 25.70%. For Lokomotiv Moscow (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.63. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.58, with an expected value of -1.44%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.84%EV -3.18%E -1.54%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.31%EV -2.27%E -0.639%K -0.890%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.85%EV -3.64%E -0.970%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-05 16:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.97%EV -3.65%E -1.77%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.03%EV -1.44%E -0.403%K -0.560%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.01%EV -4.41%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-05 16:25
Pinnacle🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 47.15%EV -4.11%E -2.01%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.07%EV -1.72%E -0.482%K -0.669%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.78%EV -3.64%E -0.970%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-05 16:05
BetOnline.ag🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 46.21%EV -5.98%E -2.98%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.49%EV -10.25%E -3.15%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.31%EV -5.69%E -1.55%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-05 16:25
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -10.66%E -5.58%K -11.72%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.47%EV -5.02%E -1.46%K -2.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.72%EV -8.78%E -2.47%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-05 16:17
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.