The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Spartak Moscow v Gazovik Orenburg

Kickoff: 2026-08-30 14:30 UTC

Final: Spartak Moscow 1–1 Gazovik Orenburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Spartak Moscow (Local)

Prediction 69.53%1.44fair odd
EV -4.05%
Edge -2.93%
Kelly -10.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.67%69.73%69.53%71.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.311.351.351.3876.34%74.07%74.07%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gazovik Orenburg (Visit)

Prediction 12.28%8.14fair odd
EV +3.89%
Edge +0.460%
Kelly +0.522%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 8.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.38%12.21%12.28%12.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.207.807.758.4613.89%12.83%12.90%11.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.19%5.50fair odd
EV +1.30%
Edge +0.234%
Kelly +0.286%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 5.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.29%18.07%18.19%18.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.205.205.5720.41%19.23%19.23%17.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Spartak Moscow (Local): 69.53%; Gazovik Orenburg (Visit): 12.28%; Draw: 18.19%. For Gazovik Orenburg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.14. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.46, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.89%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.33%EV -6.13%E -4.54%K -17.52%G +0.000%8.46I 11.82%NM 11.38%EV +3.89%E +0.460%K +0.522%G +0.020%5.57I 17.95%NM 17.29%EV +1.30%E +0.234%K +0.286%G +0.004%3.8%2026-08-30 14:20
1xBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 70.21%EV -4.05%E -2.93%K -10.65%G +0.000%8.32I 12.02%NM 11.65%EV +2.17%E +0.261%K +0.297%G +0.006%5.34I 18.73%NM 18.14%EV -2.88%E -0.539%K -0.663%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-30 14:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.05%EV -4.74%E -3.46%K -12.81%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.85%EV -0.529%E -0.065%K -0.075%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.11%EV -3.61%E -0.680%K -0.839%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-30 14:25
Bovada🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 69.88%EV -8.91%E -6.80%K -28.75%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.81%EV -4.83%E -0.623%K -0.715%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.31%EV -9.06%E -1.81%K -2.27%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-30 14:18
BetUS🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.36%EV -5.44%E -4.00%K -15.10%G +0.000%7.55I 13.25%NM 12.49%EV -7.28%E -0.965%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.14%EV -5.42%E -1.04%K -1.29%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 14:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.86%EV -6.13%E -4.54%K -17.52%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.91%EV -11.58%E -1.61%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.23%EV -7.24%E -1.42%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 14:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.67%EV -7.52%E -5.66%K -22.80%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.69%EV -11.58%E -1.61%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.64%EV -10.88%E -2.22%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 13:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.