The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Spartak Moscow v FK Rostov

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 14:00 UTC

Final: Spartak Moscow 3–0 FK Rostov

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Spartak Moscow (Local)

Prediction 64.65%1.55fair odd
EV -3.02%
Edge -2.01%
Kelly -6.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.78%64.51%64.65%64.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.461.441.5069.93%68.49%69.44%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FK Rostov (Visit)

Prediction 13.82%7.24fair odd
EV -3.70%
Edge -0.531%
Kelly -0.620%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.69%13.92%13.82%14.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.406.776.806.9715.63%14.77%14.71%14.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.53%4.64fair odd
EV -3.12%
Edge -0.693%
Kelly -0.891%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.26%21.57%21.53%21.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.354.384.5023.81%22.97%22.83%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Spartak Moscow (Local): 64.65%; FK Rostov (Visit): 13.82%; Draw: 21.53%. For Spartak Moscow (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.55. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.50, with an expected value of -3.02%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.20%EV -3.02%E -2.01%K -6.04%G +0.000%6.97I 14.35%NM 13.82%EV -3.70%E -0.531%K -0.620%G +0.000%4.38I 22.83%NM 21.99%EV -5.70%E -1.30%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-13 13:50
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.73%EV -3.67%E -2.46%K -7.48%G +0.000%6.97I 14.35%NM 13.84%EV -3.70%E -0.531%K -0.620%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.43%EV -3.12%E -0.693%K -0.891%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-13 13:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.86%EV -4.31%E -2.91%K -8.98%G +0.000%6.95I 14.39%NM 13.81%EV -3.98%E -0.572%K -0.668%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33%EV -3.12%E -0.693%K -0.891%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-13 13:35
BetUS🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.98%EV -6.90%E -4.79%K -15.68%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.76%EV -6.05%E -0.890%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%EV -5.27%E -1.20%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 13:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.66%EV -6.90%E -4.79%K -15.68%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.69%EV -6.05%E -0.890%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.65%EV -7.42%E -1.73%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 13:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.78%EV -6.90%E -4.79%K -15.68%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.35%EV -11.58%E -1.81%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.87%EV -9.58%E -2.28%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-13 13:41
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.08%EV -7.54%E -5.28%K -17.55%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.10%EV -10.19%E -1.57%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -9.58%E -2.28%K -2.99%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-13 13:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.