Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Spartak Moscow v FC Krasnodar

Kickoff: 2026-04-23 16:45 UTC

Final: Spartak Moscow 1–2 FC Krasnodar

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

42%

33%

26%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Spartak Moscow (Local)

Prediction 41.56%2.41fair odd

EV +1.41%

Edge +0.580%

Kelly +0.982%

Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 2.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

39.78%41.26%41.56%42.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.202.312.312.4445.45%43.35%43.20%40.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Krasnodar (Visit)

Prediction 32.65%3.06fair odd

EV -0.754%

Edge -0.248%

Kelly -0.370%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.93%32.76%32.65%33.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.752.912.943.0436.36%34.32%34.01%32.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.79%3.88fair odd

EV -2.51%

Edge -0.665%

Kelly -0.904%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

25.60%25.98%25.79%28.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.433.603.603.7829.15%27.78%27.78%26.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Spartak Moscow (Local): 41.56%; FC Krasnodar (Visit): 32.65%; Draw: 25.79%. For Spartak Moscow (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.41. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.44, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.41%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	2.44I 40.98%NM 39.78%EV +1.41%E +0.580%K +0.982%G +0.014%	3.04I 32.89%NM 31.93%EV -0.754%E -0.248%K -0.370%G +0.000%	3.43I 29.15%NM 28.30%EV -11.54%E -3.36%K -4.75%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-04-23 16:35
Marathon Bet🎯	2.33I 42.92%NM 41.49%EV -3.16%E -1.36%K -2.37%G +0.000%	2.96I 33.78%NM 32.66%EV -3.37%E -1.14%K -1.72%G +0.000%	3.74I 26.74%NM 25.85%EV -3.55%E -0.948%K -1.29%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-04-23 16:39
Pinnacle🎯	2.32I 43.10%NM 41.71%EV -3.57%E -1.54%K -2.71%G +0.000%	2.96I 33.78%NM 32.69%EV -3.37%E -1.14%K -1.72%G +0.000%	3.78I 26.46%NM 25.60%EV -2.51%E -0.665%K -0.904%G +0.000%	3.3%	2026-04-23 16:30
Codere (IT)🎯	2.31I 43.29%NM 39.85%EV -3.99%E -1.73%K -3.04%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.47%EV -10.22%E -3.72%K -5.84%G +0.000%	3.45I 28.99%NM 26.68%EV -11.02%E -3.20%K -4.50%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-04-23 16:39
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.24I 44.64%NM 42.00%EV -6.90%E -3.08%K -5.56%G +0.000%	2.92I 34.25%NM 32.22%EV -4.67%E -1.60%K -2.43%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%EV -5.87%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-04-23 16:29
Bovada🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 41.81%EV -8.56%E -3.89%K -7.13%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -6.96%E -2.44%K -3.76%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -8.45%E -2.38%K -3.31%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-04-23 16:23

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.